GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/doc/GFS4cycle_GCWMB_briefing_13dec2012_fyang.pdf thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peregrinator Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Someone here may have the link from NCEP but it does show the 06 and 18 runs verify worse, every now and then it gets posted I'm curious about the difference in verification scores between a 12z run and the 18z run that comes out right afterward. It seems like whatever causes 06/18z to have lower verification scores than 00z/12z should be offset by the fact that you're 6 hours closer to a given event. People often say, "oh, it's the 18z so it should be discounted," but when you're talking about an event that's nearing, shouldn't it have at least equal likelihood of verification to the 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z GFS Initially the WAA is stronger than the 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 No changes through Hr 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Low placement is identical through Hr 24, WAA looks nothing like nam, much stronger and further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 through hr 36, looks warm and north low near the nam in western pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Can we have one person to pbp please? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 hr 39. freezing looks to be around I 78 or i 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 through hr 36, looks warm and north low near the nam in western pa Not being mean but let me do the PBP, hr 36 the low is in Ohio NOT PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 hr 39. freezing looks to be around I 78 or i 80 Definitely south of I-80...850 line pretty much bisects the state of NJ at 39 hours with heavy snow for much of NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Seriously what is the model really showing two completely different pbp!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks to be about 6" front ender on the gfs...good thump, will see if anything on backend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hr 42, low is in southwestern PA about 50 miles west of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Seriously what is the model really showing two completely different pbp!!!!!! It's the same. I will step back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I agree, was looking at it quickly Definitely south of I-80...850 line pretty much bisects the state of NJ at 39 hours with heavy snow for much of NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm curious about the difference in verification scores between a 12z run and the 18z run that comes out right afterward. It seems like whatever causes 06/18z to have lower verification scores than 00z/12z should be offset by the fact that you're 6 hours closer to a given event. People often say, "oh, it's the 18z so it should be discounted," but when you're talking about an event that's nearing, shouldn't it have at least equal likelihood of verification to the 12z? 06Z/18Z have fewer darts to throw at a map, so they more often miss the target. Seriously- in the short term there should be no difference, but these are often used for experimentation w/o informing the public. The latter part of the run has lower resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hr 48 low is over Central Jersey as oppose to 12z it was already out over Atlantic.. Mix line into southern orange county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The 18z GFS basically kills the idea of a significant snowfall for the immediate NYC area. The PNA- is probably the teleconnection most out of line with significant snowfalls during the first half of February. For perspective, 50% of NYC's 3"-6" snowfalls during the first half of February occurred with a PNA-. In contrast, 31% of the City's 8" or greater snowfalls during that same timeframe occurred with a PNA-. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hr 54 low pulls out east of long Island everyone changes back to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 According to the 18z GFS, NYC's 2m temperature is shown at +3.1°C on Monday 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks to be about 6" front ender on the gfs...good thump, will see if anything on backend The 18z GFS basically kills the idea of a significant snowfall. The PNA- is probably the teleconnection most out of line with significant snowfalls during the first half of February. For perspective, 50% of NYC's 3"-6" snowfalls during the first half of February occurred with a PNA-. In contrast, 31% of the City's 8" or greater snowfalls during that same timeframe occurred with a PNA-. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Storm pulls out by hour 60, light snow lingering east of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 According to the 18z GFS, NYC's 2m temperature is shown at +3.1°C on Monday 18z. Warmest out of the bunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 According to the 18z GFS, NYC's 2m temperature is shown at +3.1°C on Monday 18z. Contrast that to around 20F valid same time from 12Z Euro. One of them is going to have to at a minimum move toward the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well, the trend is clearly to bring everything further north, including the snow, mixing, and rain. We can ignore the trends and not change direction each model run, but we know where that has gotten us, very recently actually. I really didn't think this one would turn into a mess of sleet and rain, but it is very possible. Still a few inches of snow at least to start, maybe an inch or two at the end, but sloppy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Don I couldn't believe what I read just now from you. Early afternoon in the Philly forum yesterday I touted the -NAO/-AO/+PNA pattern as evidence that it couldn't come further north. Literally I said the PNA is forecast to spike. Sure enough I peek today and it's been scraping the bottom of the predicted range since I made that comment. In fact it might be verifying below the lower forecast bound. I suppose more of the energy coming out from Mexico meant the remaining energy was insufficient to pump up the west coast ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 The GFS is not that bad of a run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gfs will wipe out any snowpack around here. Ground bare by Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well, the trend is clearly to bring everything further north, including the snow, mixing, and rain. We can ignore the trends and not change direction each model run, but we know where that has gotten us, very recently actually. I really didn't think this one would turn into a mess of sleet and rain, but it is very possible. Still a few inches of snow at least to start, maybe an inch or two at the end, but sloppy Even the GFS is 4"+ on the front end followed by sleet/ice and then snow again. It's still a sig storm Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Most if not all of us are going to need and hope the front end snow comes in quick. GFS inidcated we should be good for a min of 4 inches to as much as 6 or 7 prior to a switch from around bridgewater, nj north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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