USCG RS Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 See these so called "SWFE" usually have an anticyclone parked over New England as they approach from the west. The anticyclone is steadily moving off to the northeast or east...and consequently, any cold air is quickly eroded...and snow yields around here are usually minimal...all you can get is what falls before the High sufficiently loses its influence while moisture overruns the cold air at the surface. This situation is materially different. You have arctic air all across eastern Canada and Low pressure sitting over Labrador. This cold air is most assuredly not retreating...it may be giving a bit...but just a bit. Thus I am confounded by these models treating this like a quick snow to rain event. Moreover, you throw in the fact that we are now going into February...when the general storm track is at its most suppressed...and things don't seem quite as they are being painted this evening. Yes. Synoptically this just doesn't make sense. I'm may go down with my ship, but there will be a Southward correction imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Excuse me, what is SWFE? South west flow event. EDIT: Got beat to it. These events typically give us a good thump in the beginning, typically under estimated by models. However they also push warm air in the upper layers pretty fast. Given the cold air at the surface however I expect a decent amount of icing for a lot of us north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 See these so called "SWFE" usually have an anticyclone parked over New England as they approach from the west. The anticyclone is steadily moving off to the northeast or east...and consequently, any cold air is quickly eroded...and snow yields around here are usually minimal...all you can get is what falls before the High sufficiently loses its influence while moisture overruns the cold air at the surface. This situation is materially different. You have arctic air all across eastern Canada and Low pressure sitting over Labrador. This cold air is most assuredly not retreating...it may be giving a bit...but just a bit. Thus I am confounded by these models treating this like a quick snow to rain event. Moreover, you throw in the fact that we are now going into February...when the general storm track is at its most suppressed...and things don't seem quite as they are being painted this evening. there are factors besides the time of year pointing against a suppressed solution, the relative tanking of the PNA, lack of a west based block.....i do agree with you that the cold air will have a tougher time retreating than the gfs or nam showed, especially N and W of the cities, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJCowboy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 there are factors besides the time of year pointing against a suppressed solution, the relative tanking of the PNA, lack of a west based block.....i do agree with you that the cold air will have a tougher time retreating than the gfs or nam showed, especially N and W of the cities, though Not much of an appetite for humor in this forum, but, based on observations, not models, this ends up south of progged. Just my 2 cents,which is worth some fraction of that on the open market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 there are factors besides the time of year pointing against a suppressed solution, the relative tanking of the PNA, lack of a west based block.....i do agree with you that the cold air will have a tougher time retreating than the gfs or nam showed, especially N and W of the cities, though Usually with these events, the 0 C isotherm @850 mb has an orientation that is WNW / ESE....consequently, it is rather common for a location off to the west at a similar latitude (say Allentown) to change over to sleet before say NYC or Long Island...because the warm surge aloft is coming in from the southwest...I alluded to this in the storm prior to Monday's blizzard...indicating that Staten Island would see a changeover first...as they are the at the southwestern most point in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 We've gone from science to faith in here... boy are folks praying tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Usually with these events, the 0 C isotherm @850 mb has an orientation that is WNW / ESE....consequently, it is rather common for a location off to the west at a similar latitude (say Allentown) to change over to sleet before say NYC or Long Island...because the warm surge aloft is coming in from the southwest...I alluded to this in the storm prior to Monday's blizzard...indicating that Staten Island would see a changeover first...as they are the at the southwestern most point in NYC. you may be right about that, it wouldnt shock me to see ABE go over to a fix before NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This. This x 1000 Pamela. The liquid solution isn't plausible outside of the immediate coast. I'm not about to say disregard and model guidance because they all serve a purpose in guiding. The emphasis in a swfe , IMHO, should really be on analogs. BOX hit the nail on the head in their disco yesterday... Mentioning the high likelihood that the event occurs further north than it was modeled yesterday. I respect the model threads and the sometimes excellent and educational analysis, just wanted to throw the analog importance out there, especially this year and in a swfe. See these so called "SWFE" usually have an anticyclone parked over New England as they approach from the west. The anticyclone is steadily moving off to the northeast or east...and consequently, any cold air is quickly eroded...and snow yields around here are usually minimal...all you can get is what falls before the High sufficiently loses its influence while moisture overruns the cold air at the surface. This situation is materially different. You have arctic air all across eastern Canada and Low pressure sitting over Labrador. This cold air is most assuredly not retreating...it may be giving a bit...but just a bit. Thus I am confounded by these models treating this like a quick snow to rain event. Moreover, you throw in the fact that we are now going into February...when the general storm track is at its most suppressed...and things don't seem quite as they are being painted this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Usually with these events, the 0 C isotherm @850 mb has an orientation that is WNW / ESE....consequently, it is rather common for a location off to the west at a similar latitude (say Allentown) to change over to sleet before say NYC or Long Island...because the warm surge aloft is coming in from the southwest...I alluded to this in the storm prior to Monday's blizzard...indicating that Staten Island would see a changeover first...as they are the at the southwestern most point in NYC. Of course, since it started snowing at the western location first...it does not necessarily make the western station end up with a lesser amount of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Of course, since it started snowing at the western location first...it does not necessarily make the western station end up with a lesser amount of snow. and in fact that is exactly what i think will happen here, because ABE will start earlier it will end up with a better front end up thump and thus higher snow totals even if it mixes first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 and in fact that is exactly what i think will happen here, because ABE will start earlier it will end up with a better front end up thump and thus higher snow totals even if it mixes first. There's going to be quite the quite the sharp cutoff somewhere between 40.5 N & 41.5 N, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Until last Monday's storm...all of SNE was terribly overdue for snow. West of a line from Hartford down to New Haven...they are still running big time negative snow anomalies...Nature evens things out over the course of time. Remember, many parts of SNE average twice as much snow as the NYC area...and some of the higher spots in the Berkshires & Litchfield Hills average three and four times as much. That's a lot of ground to make up. While I agree Litchfield is running a deficit, I disagree about Fairfield County. Until I moved to Easton this year, I lived in Norwalk and our snow totals have been above average for quite a while. This year so far (Easton) 16.5, last year (Norwalk) 58, 2012/2013 - 42 (22 inches from NEMO), 2011-2012 - 9, 2010-2011 - 64, 2009-2010 - 45, 2008-2009 - 41. The average was 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I say, based on all analysis of available physical info, this moves south 15-20 miles at the end. No faith involved...if that were the case, then 30 miles. What say you? I can't imagine it moving further north but I'd shave a few inches off my 5-8" call for the city earlier today... 3-5ish? Still don't think plain rain from LIE north, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I can't imagine it moving further north but I'd shave a few inches off my 5-8" call for the city earlier today... 3-5ish? Still don't think plain rain from LIE north, though.I said 3-6" for NYC yesterday. Although with today's trends, even that may be overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 There's going to be quite the quite the sharp cutoff somewhere between 40.5 N & 41.5 N, I think. somewhere in that range. i even think the initial thump might end up a tiny bit more south, just because of the timing issue, and i feel like i have seen this setup before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I said 3-6" for NYC yesterday. Although with today's trends, even that may be overdone. All comes down to the front end ferocity. If it comes in like a wall, 5 or 6 is doable even for the southern metro... If it's focused more to the north, I could see as little as an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 General statement here / not really directed at tomorrow's event: I think if there is one big time error regarding overly optimistic snowfall forecasts for places like NYC & LI in all storm situations...it stems from making a big time snow forecast w/o an arctic (or at least very cold polar) anticyclone in place. Soo many times we see big totals put out while its 34 F in Albany with a dewpoint of 29 F. This will not cut it. You need 20's in Albany (at worst) with a dewpoint no higher than the teens to have sufficiently cold air drain down to the coast and provide the needed supply for an 8 hour plus all snow event on the coast. And, of course, the weather map must be properly aligned aloft. Now over the higher elevations of southern NY state and northern NJ...you can sometimes get away with marginal semi Pacific / polar air...but down at the lower elevations...practically impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 All comes down to the front end ferocity. If it comes in like a wall, 5 or 6 is doable even for the southern metro... If it's focused more to the north, I could see as little as an inch or two. Agree 100%. 0 z i expect to nudge south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 2 screw jobs in a week for nyc folks. Ouch . Sent from my iPhone NYC has an average 27" snow a year for a reason unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NYC has an average 27" snow a year for a reason unfortunately.The weenies are spoiled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Why are adolescents who obviously having nothing tangible to contribute allowed to make so much noise?I really enjoy reading your posts and think they're pretty spot on in terms of analysis but please don't take this the wrong way when I say, a lot of your posts in here have sparked long post discussion that don't pertain to any model discussion... This is suppose to be exclusively a model thread, the normal storm discussion thread is still open as well as banter... it's not your posts but the debates that ensue Again please don't take this the wrong way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 No need for a new thread, everyone needs to keep the storm discussion and random weather discussion out of this thread, I'm hoping a mod cleans it up Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NYC has an average 27" snow a year for a reason unfortunately. And after this storm, we'll likely have seen 70%+ of said average in 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NYC has an average 27" snow a year for a reason unfortunately. Many of our younger posters have seen too many major snow storms...so it's expected now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 SREF's are still warm for the city and points south and East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 SREF's are still warm for the city and points south and East How did they look North of city, too lazy to check if you don't mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I really enjoy reading your posts and think they're pretty spot on in terms of analysis but please don't take this the wrong way when I say, a lot of your posts in here have sparked long post discussion that don't pertain to any model discussion... This is suppose to be exclusively a model thread, the normal storm discussion thread is still open as well as banter... Again please don't take this the wrong way The fact that you responded to that particular post speaks volumes. Now, if you prefer to read posts like "I hope it snows"...or "it looks cold"...you are at liberty to do so. However, there cannot be much personal growth when one limits oneself to that kind of thing. Moreover, I'm not sure it is for you to say what constitutes an acceptable post...I know I don't go around policing any threads or objecting to what anyone writes...I may disagree with it or consider it just silly...but I still don't say "delete that post, it hurts my eyes". I actually think these posts...where the author says "its not in the right thread" (a subjective evaluation 9 times out of 10) actually are more bothersome than the alleged offending post to begin with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Maybe a say from a moderate about what's acceptable is due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The fact that you responded to that particular post speaks volumes. Now, if you prefer to read posts like "I hope it snows"...or "it looks cold"...you are at liberty to do so. However, there cannot be much personal growth when one limits oneself to that kind of thing. Moreover, I'm not sure it is for you to say what constitutes an acceptable post...I know I don't go around policing any threads or objecting to what anyone writes...I may disagree with it or consider it just silly...but I still don't say "delete that post, it hurts my eyes". I actually think these posts...where the author says "its not in the right thread" (a subjective evaluation 9 times out of 10) actually are more bothersome than the alleged offending post to begin with... your posts are fine. this has been a good thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 The fact that you responded to that particular post speaks volumes. Now, if you prefer to read posts like "I hope it snows"...or "it looks cold"...you are at liberty to do so. However, there cannot be much personal growth when one limits oneself to that kind of thing. Moreover, I'm not sure it is for you to say what constitutes an acceptable post...I know I don't go around policing any threads or objecting to what anyone writes...I may disagree with it or consider it just silly...but I still don't say "delete that post, it hurts my eyes". I actually think these posts...where the author says "its not in the right thread" (a subjective evaluation 9 times out of 10) actually are more bothersome than the alleged offending post to begin with... I'm certainly not responding to your post unless you concider 27 years old a child still... Anyway, your points are invalid.. If your not posting ANYTHING about the topic how am I wrong by asking you to take it to banter.... You took up 2 pages talking about SNE snow totals and normals.. In a model thread, I'll be glad to continue this convo in the banter where it belongs, along with the majority of your other posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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