Wmsptwx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Ehhh 31 degrees and mod to heavy rain never accrues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Pawatch we need to hang out some time, we live close enough lol. Really hope we can have a g2g that doesn't fall through with the whole gang. Roger on that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 If you ever wanted a snapshot of an above 40N winter, here it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 If you ever wanted a snapshot of an above 40N winter, here it is. nsm_depth_2015020505_National.jpg oh my, its like someone drew a line with a ruler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 local group of kids who forecast ( they roped in a tvmet) just stated a long duration snowfall from Sat thru Tues. 7 to 12+ for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 That's an incredible map. Don't post that in the MA forum, you'll be executed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Mag that pic is a keeper....thanks for sharing! Was looking at the GFS. And it looks like we get precip from 72 - 96 hrs and appears that some of the precipitation will be a mixed bag. The temps look like they are going to be a main concern. Also I know that tomorrow's runs will probably be totally different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 local group of kids who forecast ( they roped in a tvmet) just stated a long duration snowfall from Sat thru Tues. 7 to 12+ for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Does anyone know when this arctic pattern will break? The GFS keeps it ****ing cold right through the 384 hour period. I could seriously use a thaw with temps in the 50's for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Does anyone know when this arctic pattern will break? The GFS keeps it ****ing cold right through the 384 hour period. I could seriously use a thaw with temps in the 50's for a few days. The only day it gets to 40 is the day of the storm. Then it looks like pretty much next week is in the 20's. With next Friday high showing it staying in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The only day it gets to 40 is the day of the storm. This should be the Harrisburg-Hershey Convention and Visitors' Bureau's slogan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 18z GFS is cold and dry, except on Sunday-Monday when it rains. Lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Much below temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Sunday night's forecast is literally 33 and heavy rain. Can't make it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Cannot wait lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Walking into this thread like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Rain snow mix is forecast for Sunday. It will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Its like incredibly far north, would take a huge shift south for this to work out for any of us lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 chilly 7 this morning........all this cold and no snow is like having sex and..................oh never mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 -5 degrees here this morning. Cold and no snow is like having sex.....hmmm :-) Everyone stay warm and have a good day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Fell to -3° overnight sometime and was hovering around 0° between 5:30 and 7:30 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Its like incredibly far north, would take a huge shift south for this to work out for any of us lol. well I just typed a good paragraph and the browser crashed before I could post... lets try this again... Once again the models are struggling with handling high pressure systems in the active pattern. Similar to the past two potential events, the models show something promising in the 3-6 day range only to take it away in the 2-3 day time frame. In this case, the models had the high that is set to slide eastward through Canada this weekend in a position to keep a stalled boundary just south of PA and then the high would have been in a position to block and force the digging energy close to the coast. Well as we get closer to the event, the high in Canada is behind, allowing for this boundary to set up further north and now will not be in a position to keep the digging energy from sliding right out to sea. Now for the cold air that the models keep projecting for late next week/weekend, we will once again need to depend on positioning and track of a few high pressure systems for it to occur. Right now I just don't have confidence in this occuring. While we may end up with below normal temps, I just don't see the level of cold that some are already talking about occuring. The pattern is just too active to get these shots of cold air to stay in place long enough to get the sustained cold other than a cold morning like this morning occurring other than here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 well I just typed a good paragraph and the browser crashed before I could post... lets try this again... Once again the models are struggling with handling high pressure systems in the active pattern. Similar to the past two potential events, the models show something promising in the 3-6 day range only to take it away in the 2-3 day time frame. In this case, the models had the high that is set to slide eastward through Canada this weekend in a position to keep a stalled boundary just south of PA and then the high would have been in a position to block and force the digging energy close to the coast. Well as we get closer to the event, the high in Canada is behind, allowing for this boundary to set up further north and now will not be in a position to keep the digging energy from sliding right out to sea. Now for the cold air that the models keep projecting for late next week/weekend, we will once again need to depend on positioning and track of a few high pressure systems for it to occur. Right now I just don't have confidence in this occuring. While we may end up with below normal temps, I just don't see the level of cold that some are already talking about occuring. The pattern is just too active to get these shots of cold air to stay in place long enough to get the sustained cold other than a cold morning like this morning occurring other than here and there. I don't know, even the GEFS mean has 850 mb temperatures below -20C into the Mid-atlantic for Friday. Even after that, I would still favor below normal temperatures for a while. Hopefully guidance moderates things as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Thanks DJR No words needed for the maps. GFS TQPF .80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 6 at la casa this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 If you ever wanted a snapshot of an above 40N winter, here it is. nsm_depth_2015020505_National.jpg That lack of snow in the Cali mts though . . . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It is pretty bad, for the third week in a row, we had a big storm 5 days out. once we get inside the 3 day windows, it moves way north and the heaviest snow goes north. This does wonders for the public confidence. I was at a church meeting last night, and there was a brief discussion regarding the cancellation of Sunday services should it be bad. The idea was floated about that there would be 18 + inches of snow this weekend. (remember the local group of kiddies from above). Back to the eroding of public confidence, This goes back to saying that weathermen cannot get a forecast right and they are the only profession that can be wrong and still have jobs. When people start turning from the NWS and going to the Kiddies for weather info, I believe there is a real problem. IT is only a matter of time before they start issuing warnings or even worse ignore warnings from official sources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I agree Rick, these groups that seem to be growing in popularity are really hurting things. It's bad enough that the models jump every time within 60 hours, let alone people listening to groups who won't correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Not the best picture but that's at 10:00 am in my truck. Overcast this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Up to 21 already in Altoona. Looks like the snow eludes us again. Im about ready to move on to spring and get ready for baseball. Sick of gettin screwed with all these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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