Wmsptwx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 GFS rains for everyone reading this outside of dude who lives north of Scranton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 You know its a bummer when Upstate NY guys are fretting the mix line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Im sorry guys...if I had known going on vacation would cancel our storm I would have stayed at work (yea, scratch that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Interesting disparity between 12Z GFS and 12Z NAM regarding total qpf for the late weekend event. GFS gives MDT around 0.40" total while NAM gives 0.08". NAM also doesn't even start the precip here until around 5:00am Monday morning. Looks like a mild weekend and mainly dry is in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarks green snow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I am that dude!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Interesting disparity between 12Z GFS and 12Z NAM regarding total qpf for the late weekend event. GFS gives MDT around 0.40" total while NAM gives 0.08". NAM also doesn't even start the precip here until around 5:00am Monday morning. Looks like a mild weekend and mainly dry is in store. We will be mostly on the sidelines this weekend for the first couple of the weaker shortwaves that run the stalled boundary which will be well to the north of most of us. Like the last event, best QPF and forcing will be at and north of this boundary. Depending on where this boundary ultimately ends up, the US 6 corridor in far northern Penn might get into a little bit of the early snow. Further south it'll be relatively mild, but probably not out of the 30s in the central regions. The far south might bust into the 40s, especially if some sun is to be had. If anything snow-wise is going to come out of this series of waves along the stalled boundary it's going to be with the last, much stronger wave that is progged around Monday. GFS/Euro have this digging and popping a low running to the south of PA, which may help foster a rain -> mix -> snow type deal as the low attempts to draw some cold air. NE PA might not be in too terrible of a spot for this. NWS BGM is certainly bullish with their snowmap in NE PA today... with 4-8" all the way into Scranton-WB. Gonna have to monitor that particular wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Well I'm a day late as usual, but I like to thank all our Weathermen/Mets for all they do! National Weatherman's day was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I have a couple questions regarding the upcoming storm. This afternoon I was reading that NWS liked the preferred blend of the ECMWF/UKMET From what I have seen the Euro ticked a little more south on the 12Z run. "I-80 special" Below is a picture of the Euro/UKMET 850 temp. @72 The bottom picture is the latest UKMET run and it is south with cooler temps. Are the models starting a south trend? I know this system is complicated but would like to hear some thoughts. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 12z Euro brought around 2 inches near the PA turnpike from Carlisle on to the east. Amounts increased north and east in PA to around 6 inches near the NY border. Hopefully 0z runs continue to trend back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Just when I got to thinking, "oh well, let it go north". That way I won't have to shovel or drive in snow, and when it warms up it won't be so much to melt. Just when I was thinking that, the models (Euro anyway) start bringing it south again...ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Joe Bastardi thinks snow will end up further south than currently modeled. He put out a map this afternoon that showed 3 inches from northern Maryland back to western PA except for the SW corner. The 6 in. Line covered the eastern half of PA north of roughly the turnpike. The 12 inch area covered the northeast corner of PA up through New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Joe Bastardi thinks snow will end up further south than currently modeled. He put out a map this afternoon that showed 3 inches from northern Maryland back to western PA except for the SW corner. The 6 in. Line covered the eastern half of PA north of roughly the turnpike. The 12 inch area covered the northeast corner of PA up through New England. do you have a link or is it behind a paywall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 do you have a link or is it behind a paywall? Someone put it in the New England thread this afternoon. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45633-long-duration-overrunning-to-coastal-disco-0207-0209/?p=3350982 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 thanks Mag! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I have a couple questions regarding the upcoming storm. This afternoon I was reading that NWS liked the preferred blend of the ECMWF/UKMET From what I have seen the Euro ticked a little more south on the 12Z run. "I-80 special" Below is a picture of the Euro/UKMET 850 temp. @72 The bottom picture is the latest UKMET run and it is south with cooler temps. Are the models starting a south trend? I know this system is complicated but would like to hear some thoughts. Thanks I made the same mistake earlier when I checked out the UKMET on meteocentre. You got em reversed.. the bottom one is actually last nights 0z run and the top was 12z run (which was a bit warmer at 850mb). Most of the major models are trying to get a low just south of PA with the last and strongest of the waves, but it's going to be tough to call how much cold air gets drawn down and where the frontal boundary lies. We have a better positioned and stronger high than the last storm so I suspect at least some of our region will deal with a rain to ice to snow type scenario if the precip's available. For CTP's part they do have a snowmap out for Sunday into Monday with the NW 2/3s of the region broad brushed with a 2-3 zone and the rest of the forecast area in 1-2". I could see such a scenario if that particular low tracks far enough south. I just like how we're pulling teeth with maybe trying to manage a couple inches when upstate NY and New England stand to get throttled with yet another major snowstorm. Gettin downright silly how much of a tremendous disparity in snowfall there is between up there and the Mid-Atlantic region underneath us. I'm thankful to at least have a snowpack on the ground, which has looked awesome in the moonlight the last few nights by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 CMC is warm and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Been on the sidelines for this one. Pinched nerve in my neck is killing me. Thanks for all keeping up to date on the storm potential. I've looked a little bit and it looks like a better chance for snow north of I80 with NE PA around and north of Scranton with the best chance of 5+. The MO this year is for storms to tick north when they happen, so we shall see. This just hasn't been a good snow year for the LSV, but you'd be surprised how close to average some places are. Just a lot of wasted cold this year. Still time for a change, but the period we're heading in is less favorable by climo standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 what a difference the last 24 hrs in temps. Last night this time it was 10 on my way home and tonight its 27. Even the breeze feels warm. It looks like its out of the SE the way the flags are blowing. The temps forcasted for Sun and Mon are 42 and 38 respectively in Altoona. I just cant see how we will get any snow out of this until maybe late Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 KBOS (Logan Intl Airport) showing 2.23" of precipitation over the next 180 hours on the 0z GFS...all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 0z Euro show 3 inches around MDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Euro also shows 3 in. in State College and 5 in Williamsport. Greater amounts in Northeast corner of PA. 6 + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Euro also shows 3 in. in State College and 5 in Williamsport. Greater amounts in Northeast corner of PA. 6 + Euro text shows 2 in. KUNV and 4.1 in. KIPT thru Tuesday. The text is pretty useful when a location is on the gradient. Not a huge difference, but an inch is an inch is an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Euro text shows 2 in. KUNV and 4.1 in. KIPT thru Tuesday. The text is pretty useful when a location is on the gradient. Not a huge difference, but an inch is an inch is an inch. I have no Euro access. Can you get a text number for somewhere close to Tamaqua, Schuylkill County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 this is the first time I remember that the Luzerne and Lackawanna counties have different warnings, Lachawanna has a watch and Luzerne doesn't. I do not recall this happening before. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN THE AREA BEING AFFECTEDBY A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGHTHE DEVIL IS STILL IN THE DETAILS WITH THERE STILL BEING SOMEDIFFERENCES IN FORECAST MODELS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS,DO HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND WATCH ACROSS THEREMAINDER OF CENTRAL NY AND INTO NE PA FOR ALL BUT LUZERNE ANDWYOMING COUNTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 this is the first time I remember that the Luzerne and Lackawanna counties have different warnings, Lachawanna has a watch and Luzerne doesn't. I do not recall this happening before. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN THE AREA BEING AFFECTED BY A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE DEVIL IS STILL IN THE DETAILS WITH THERE STILL BEING SOME DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST MODELS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS, DO HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND WATCH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NY AND INTO NE PA FOR ALL BUT LUZERNE AND WYOMING COUNTIES. And that's despite their map showing us in the 6-8" zone...something doesn't add up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Mag thanks for your thoughts! I thought after I had UKMET posted that I messed up. Will have to be more careful in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I have no Euro access. Can you get a text number for somewhere close to Tamaqua, Schuylkill County? Tamaqua (40.79° N, -75.96° W) - thru Tuesday - .06 ice - 3.7 in. snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Tamaqua (40.79° N, -75.96° W) - thru Tuesday - .06 ice - 3.7 in. snow. Thanks! At least it doesn't appear to be much ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 And that's despite their map showing us in the 6-8" zone...something doesn't add up here. I am thinking that their snowfall maps are based on model alone and forecast is actual interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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