IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 The 4k NAM is rather interesting. It shows a decent front end dump occuring overnight into Saturday morning, followed by almost a brief dry slot and then the developing CCB passes overhead. It's quite a bit wetter than the 12k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Here is the front end dump Then dry slot And then the back ended CCB swings through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Actually I like the look of the NAM, although only a 2-4/3-5, all snow and the low is fairly far west (tucked right off the delmarva coast)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Here is the front end dump Then dry slot And then the back ended CCB swings through 979 low looks tasty. Too bad there isn't a lot more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 200mb GEFS -Spag guidance Jet stream winds....not surface low track that jet is what pushes and pulls on our system just to clarify.. you can clearly see the shift east then southeast and I believe this should show up on the surface reflections during the next few runs..... this systems track will trend east over time -imho http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgefs-spag%2F06%2Fgefs-spag_atlantic_054_200_1176_ht.gif&model=gefs-spag&area=atlantic&storm=&cycle=06¶m=200_1176_ht&fhr=054&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150122+06+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Track Clusters show this east of the bm idea ++++ to the east of center line ATM http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif Watch for the cluster update from the WPC dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Actually I like the look of the NAM, although only a 2-4/3-5, all snow and the low is fairly far west (tucked right off the delmarva coast)... The immediate coast and the city briefly mix on the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The immediate coast and the city briefly mix on the 12z NAM. Nam starts off the area with snow then changes to a mix before the ccb swings through. I would like to see the models increase the precip amounts especially with a sub 980 low on the benchmark. Need better phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 jet-200.gif 200mb GEFS -Spag guidance you can clearly see the shift east then southeast and I believe this should show up on the surface reflections during the next few runs..... this systems track will trend east over time -imho http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgefs-spag%2F06%2Fgefs-spag_atlantic_054_200_1176_ht.gif&model=gefs-spag&area=atlantic&storm=&cycle=06¶m=200_1176_ht&fhr=054&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150122+06+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Track Clusters show this east of the bm idea ++++ to the east of center http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif Watch for the cluster update from the WPC dm You can't base your forecast soley on the GEFS ensembles. The Euro ensembles are far surperior and most members are tightly clustered 50 miles SE of ACY to the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 979 low looks tasty. Too bad there isn't a lot more precip. I'm suspect of the low precip amounts given how strong some of these lows are projected. The Gulf is wide open. The speed isn't helping much, but it may beat the kicker and allow low to stay farther west. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 You can't base your forecast soley on the GEFS ensembles. The Euro ensembles are far surperior and most members are tightly clustered 50 miles SE of ACY to the benchmark. WPC map has the euro cluster and I can base my guidance any way I like sir dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Here is the front end dump Then dry slot And then the back ended CCB swings through This is the 12km at 57 hr There is your difference. Different both at the surface and aloft on the 12km vs the 4km. Much different evolution in general. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 WPC map has the euro cluster and I can base my guidance any way I like sir dm That map cluster you posted does not include the EPS members. I've seen them myself and I know that they aren't being represented there. Using one source to make a forecast is just plain foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Per soundings on the plymouth site. NYC and coastal sections briefly mix. The total precipitation amount is not impressive .4-.6 in liquid eqv with temperatures around freezing would yield 4-6 inches of snow on the 12z Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Per soundings on the plymouth site. NYC and coastal sections briefly mix. The total precipitation amount is not impressive .4-.6 in liquid eqv with temperatures around freezing would yield 4-6 inches of snow on the 12z Nam. I'd take 4-6" in a heartbeat. Sign me up. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That map cluster you posted does not include the EPS members. I've seen them myself and I know that they aren't being represented there. Using one source to make a forecast is just plain foolish. Check your facts LOW TRACKS GRAPHIC These graphics depict the forecast location of significant surface lows impacting the 48 contiguous United States in 12 hour increments out to 72 hours into the future. It is provided in two formats, non-technical and technical. The non-technical version depicts the low position and track forecast by the NCEP WPC meteorologist in white. Each low position is accompanied by a lead time (Eastern Time). The circle around each low represents a 75% probability the observed low will be located within the circle. Note: The probability is derived using previous season's verification data. For reference, existing surface lows are depicted with a red marker without yellow circles. The technical version depicts the low position and track forecast by the NCEP WPC meteorologist in black. Each low is accompanied by a forecast central pressure. Additionally, low positions from a multi-model ensemble are depicted with symbols. The typical constituency of the ensemble is:1 NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) run 1 NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) run 1 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) run 1 Canadian Global Model (CMC) run 1 Naval Research Lab (NAVGEM) run 1 United Kingdom Met Office (UKMET) run 21 NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) members 1 NCEP SREF ensemble mean 1 NCEP SREF bias-corrected ensemble mean 20 NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) members 1 NCEP GEFS ensemble mean 1 NCEP GEFS bias-corrected ensemble mean 1 ECMWF ensemble mean 1 mean of the NAM and GFS runs 1 mean of the GFS and ECMWF runs http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/about.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 NWS issued a map.... 3-4 south shore of LI, all boroughs except Bronx and into Central NJ.... 4-6 North Shore, Bronx, Westchester, Putnam and into CT... seems to be the right way to go at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 <p> Check your facts LOW TRACKS GRAPHIC These graphics depict the forecast location of significant surface lows impacting the 48 contiguous United States in 12 hour increments out to 72 hours into the future. It is provided in two formats, non-technical and technical. The non-technical version depicts the low position and track forecast by the NCEP WPC meteorologist in white. Each low position is accompanied by a lead time (Eastern Time). The circle around each low represents a 75% probability the observed low will be located within the circle. Note: The probability is derived using previous season's verification data. For reference, existing surface lows are depicted with a red marker without yellow circles.The technical version depicts the low position and track forecast by the NCEP WPC meteorologist in black. Each low is accompanied by a forecast central pressure. Additionally, low positions from a multi-model ensemble are depicted with symbols. The typical constituency of the ensemble is:1 NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) run 1 NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) run 1 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) run 1 Canadian Global Model (CMC) run 1 Naval Research Lab (NAVGEM) run 1 United Kingdom Met Office (UKMET) run 21 NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) members 1 NCEP SREF ensemble mean 1 NCEP SREF bias-corrected ensemble mean 20 NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) members 1 NCEP GEFS ensemble mean 1 NCEP GEFS bias-corrected ensemble mean 1 ECMWF ensemble mean 1 mean of the NAM and GFS runs 1 mean of the GFS and ECMWF runs http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/about.shtml You posted the GEFS plots, not the multi model ones. Enough. Take it to PMs if you want to argue about your forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 12z RGEM looks decent http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Check your facts LOW TRACKS GRAPHIC These graphics depict the forecast location of significant surface lows impacting the 48 contiguous United States in 12 hour increments out to 72 hours into the future. It is provided in two formats, non-technical and technical. The non-technical version depicts the low position and track forecast by the NCEP WPC meteorologist in white. Each low position is accompanied by a lead time (Eastern Time). The circle around each low represents a 75% probability the observed low will be located within the circle. Note: The probability is derived using previous season's verification data. For reference, existing surface lows are depicted with a red marker without yellow circles. The technical version depicts the low position and track forecast by the NCEP WPC meteorologist in black. Each low is accompanied by a forecast central pressure. Additionally, low positions from a multi-model ensemble are depicted with symbols. The typical constituency of the ensemble is:1 NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) run 1 NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) run 1 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) run 1 Canadian Global Model (CMC) run 1 Naval Research Lab (NAVGEM) run 1 United Kingdom Met Office (UKMET) run 21 NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) members 1 NCEP SREF ensemble mean 1 NCEP SREF bias-corrected ensemble mean 20 NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) members 1 NCEP GEFS ensemble mean 1 NCEP GEFS bias-corrected ensemble mean 1 ECMWF ensemble mean 1 mean of the NAM and GFS runs 1 mean of the GFS and ECMWF runs http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/about.shtml I believe his point was that the map did not show the individual ECMWF ensemble members, not the ensemble mean(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Here is the front end dump looks like some front end snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 RGEM actually looks really nice, all/mostly snow and fairly long duration... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Check your facts LOW TRACKS GRAPHIC These graphics depict the forecast location of significant surface lows impacting the 48 contiguous United States in 12 hour increments out to 72 hours into the future. It is provided in two formats, non-technical and technical. The non-technical version depicts the low position and track forecast by the NCEP WPC meteorologist in white. Each low position is accompanied by a lead time (Eastern Time). The circle around each low represents a 75% probability the observed low will be located within the circle. Note: The probability is derived using previous season's verification data. For reference, existing surface lows are depicted with a red marker without yellow circles. The technical version depicts the low position and track forecast by the NCEP WPC meteorologist in black. Each low is accompanied by a forecast central pressure. Additionally, low positions from a multi-model ensemble are depicted with symbols. The typical constituency of the ensemble is:1 NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) run 1 NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) run 1 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) run 1 Canadian Global Model (CMC) run 1 Naval Research Lab (NAVGEM) run 1 United Kingdom Met Office (UKMET) run 21 NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) members 1 NCEP SREF ensemble mean 1 NCEP SREF bias-corrected ensemble mean 20 NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) members 1 NCEP GEFS ensemble mean 1 NCEP GEFS bias-corrected ensemble mean 1 ECMWF ensemble mean 1 mean of the NAM and GFS runs 1 mean of the GFS and ECMWF runs http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/about.shtml Yeah it includes the mean and the OP, not the 51 ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 that has a very Feb 25 2010-ish look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 More phasing this run. GFS looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I too am not buying a low sub 980 producing meager precip. What I think it's doing is smoothing out the banding. I think there will be a deformation band that if it stays in any one area for a decent amount of time will jackpot. Hence my idea of 12" jackpot Nw and Ne and even up to 10" on Long Island. That's what this storm will be remembered for. I like the jan 11 analog allot just with lesser amount this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS is much better. CCB is better developed and stretches back into NE PA. It looks warm but that will work itself out. Just happy to see the good moisture make it inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I too am not buying a low sub 980 producing meager precip. What I think it's doing is smoothing out the banding. I think there will be a deformation band that if it stays in any one area for a decent amount of time will jackpot. Hence my idea of 12" jackpot Nw and Ne and even up to 10" on Long Island. That's what this storm will be remembered for. I like the jan 11 analog allot just with lesser amount this time And me. Especially not with a loaded Miller A ! If this sticks close enough. Someone will see big numbers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS is much better. CCB is better developed and stretches back into NE PA. It looks warm but that will work itself out. Just happy to see the good moisture make it inland. Is the run done? Where is the SLP placement vis a vis the BM? how is the structure on the NW side? does QPF exceed .75 in the immediate KNYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 More phasing this run. GFS looking better. But warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 But warmer Much better for those of us NW of rockland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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