A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Wow. Early start. Seems there has been an uptick in the possibilities for our area. Early and south sure have been the trends to ride with clippers this year. Final call still looking decent. The minor pivot point signal has been there for a while now which is nice and will help a bit with duration. Ratios are destined to be 9-11:1 so that sucks and LE still looks like an outside shot, although a couple more shifts south could help there. EDIT: LOT disco hedging pretty hard on west/south solutions and it's hard to disagree with their reasoning THESE NORTHWEST SYSTEMS HAVE HAD ATENDENCY TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH OR SOUTH AND WEST THAN DEPICTED AHEAD OF TIME SO WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE WAVE AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA LATER TONIGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Early and south sure have been the trends to ride with clippers this year. Final call still looking decent. The minor pivot point signal has been there for a while now which is nice and will help a bit with duration. Ratios are destined to be 9-11:1 so that sucks and LE still looks like an outside shot, although a couple more shifts south could help there. EDIT: LOT disco hedging pretty hard on west/south solutions and it's hard to disagree with their reasoning DTX said you guys are money for this clipper. There was partial sampling last night, and there should be full sampling for the 12z runs... I said earlier that I would wait a few more cycles, but instead I'll go ahead and punt the possibility of anything climatic happening now. Another nuisance 1-4" looks lke a fair and final expectation here. The trend this season with these nickel and dime clippers can't be denied... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 MPX backs LOT with their reasoning. Says eastward shifts are unlikely but further westward shifts are possible. The storm moving up the east coast being a big factor. Makes sense given the timing. 1" call in jeopardy. I'll gladly bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Lol now gfs has 0.2" qpf with temps in the upper teens and low 20s during the clipper. So much for rain mixing in worries. More powder on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I punted this for our area....mainly due to warm temps, but further south and colder has been the trend. Biggest change came from the ggem at 00z which was once the furthest north solution, and is now further south than the euro. still not ready to call the offense back in the game yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Lol now gfs has 0.2" qpf with temps in the upper teens and low 20s during the clipper. So much for rain mixing in worries. More powder on the way. Not necessarily... As always, it's going to depend on the ratios (which are almost always unimpressive with these clippers away from the best forcing). Assuming average ratios, the GFS would suggest only 2" to 2.5"" of snow total. I'm betting it's going to be another granulated sweetener special, if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Not necessarily... As always, it's going to depend on the ratios (which are almost always unimpressive with these clippers away from the best forcing). Assuming average ratios, the GFS would suggest only 2" to 2.5"" of snow total. I'm betting it's going to be another granulated sweetener special, if anything. But thats powder. Now whether its fluffy powder or sugary powder is tbd, but if its well into the 20s powder is a lock. And if its not going to be a bonafide pasting, adding more powder to the powder pack is fine with me. You on the other hand may want to hibernate til Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 6z GFS now back up to 0.44" liquid down here at VPZ. Likely all snow, but as others have said, with lousy ratios as far as Clippers go. Gotta head out to class so not too much time to look at it but quick look says by the time cold air arrives for sufficient delta T's for LES, low-level shear becomes prohibitive. Pretty bearish on anything more than lingering mood flakes attm. Will look more later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 But thats powder. Now whether its fluffy powder or sugary powder is tbd, but if its well into the 20s powder is a lock. And if its not going to be a bonafide pasting, adding more powder to the powder pack is fine with me. You on the other hand may want to hibernate til Monday Too bad that powder will all melt by mid next week, I used to prefer powder, but thanks partially to Bowme I now prefer pastings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 early look at 500 says the NAM trends west/south towards the rest of the pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 SREF plumes showing 3.1" for ORD on 10:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 SREF plumes showing 3.1" for ORD on 10:1 ratios One of the more reasonable totals it has shown this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM came south and follows the Euro with the super lame/dry solution. These low ceiling 1-3" events are just so meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Too bad that powder will all melt by mid next week, I used to prefer powder, but thanks partially to Bowme I now prefer pastings. I dont think it will melt by midweek lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 12z NAM still not as far south/west as the Euro. Of course the EC seems to be the outlier. Both models do agree on some 0.50"+ precipitation totals for parts of NE Indiana and then continuing through Ohio. Either way, it's another cold rainer for LAF...with maybe some consolation flakes at the tail end. Good luck to those up north and east. 12z NAM 36 hour total QPF through 12z Monday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Good tick south on the 12z GFS. Hmm, interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Good tick south on the 12z GFS. Hmm, interesting. wagon riding south down I57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Wow at the 12z GFS. Holy wagons west/south. Might get whiffed the complete opposite direction now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 wagon riding south down I57 Congrats for parts of Ford and Livingston counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Congrats for parts of Ford and Livingston counties. gfs_tprecip_indy_11.png trends look good for yby props to nearly all local offices for nailing these shifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Wow at the 12z GFS. Holy wagons west/south. Might get whiffed the complete opposite direction now. That's probably the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 trends look good for yby props to nearly all local offices for nailing these shifts Trend certainly looks like my friend...right now anyways. I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 That's probably the sweet spot. we're one more shift away from a shutout to the south/west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The greater digging from the 12z GFS puts the best precip band right across Iowa, but there's a big dry hole over the state on the snow map because the surface temp is just too warm. I may end up with an inch or two of slop rather than the nothing I had been expecting(which is fine because it'll be nice to see some snow again). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm thinking the big one is in order for some. As for this system its just par for the course of this winter season. C-1 for DTX looking more likely this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 12z GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 2-3" weenie band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Point up to 2-4" for Saturday night. If the higher end verifies, it would be the biggest event so far at MSP this winter (3.6") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Trend certainly looks like my friend...right now anyways. I guess we'll see. Looking a little more interesting for us, sans NAM. I'd hedge north for best totals at this time but another south shift would put us in a better spot. Still thinking there could be a band of advisory criteria snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 euro takes the low over janetjanet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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