A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 GFS ensembles slowly backing towards the Euro ensembles for next week. noticed as well i think a solid week of seasonable to mild air is g2g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Heh, going back several days, GEFS showed the warm up before the EPS. Of course now the 0z GEFS are shorter duration. Regardless, March 10-20 is most likely mild overall (west warmer than east). Thereafter is probably a toss up. If nothing else, would be nice to see some storminess start showing up on something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 March 11th through the 16th is definitely warm, it's a lock. What happens beyond that is where the two models really diverge. The GFS looks below normal, with troughing, the Euro has a pacific/zonal flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 0z EPS bring back -EPO/NW ridging at the end of the run. Again, it's all very FWIW. Getting into that change of seasons on the models, so long range accuracy gets sketchy sometimes...as if it's not all the time. This would be hilarious though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 disaster scenario and totally believable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 disaster scenario and totally believable lol, well I'm of the belief you take it one week at a time...this time of year. Big proclamations either way for two weeks out are kinda foolish IMO. But, enjoy the warm up next week. We'll see what happens thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 lol, well I'm of the belief you take it one week at a time...this time of year. Big proclamations either way for two weeks out are kinda foolish IMO. But, enjoy the warm up next week. We'll see what happens thereafter. we haven't been able to shake off that persistent -epo/riding for what seems like forever, hard to be surprised if we flip back to the status quo after the warmup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 we haven't been able to shake off that persistent -epo/riding for what seems like forever, hard to be surprised if we flip back to the status quo after the warmup I can handle march cold so long as interesting comes with it. That would not be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 we haven't been able to shake off that persistent -epo/riding for what seems like forever, hard to be surprised if we flip back to the status quo after the warmup Indeed. Been a pretty stable force for the past two years running. But nothing lasts forever. Hoosier is already on record for a wickedly hot and dry summer (his one and only analog is JJA 1934). So you got that to look forward to. I can handle march cold so long as interesting comes with it. That would not be interesting Some widespread action would be nice. Hopefully it picks up for most of us in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Hoosier is already on record for a wickedly hot and dry summer (his one and only analog is JJA 1934). So you got that to look forward to. he's losing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 he's losing it He's the board's biggest heat and drought monger. What would you expect? j/k Hoosier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 the snowstorm the gfs was selling next weekend it gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 the snowstorm the gfs was selling next weekend it gone 207 hour op run map? Might as well run it out to 222 hours then. Enjoy the slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 12z GGEM with a 3-4" slop fest here on Sunday. Let's stop that nonsense right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Indeed. Been a pretty stable force for the past two years running. But nothing lasts forever. Hoosier is already on record for a wickedly hot and dry summer (his one and only analog is JJA 1934). So you got that to look forward to. Some widespread action would be nice. Hopefully it picks up for most of us in the near future. Then you went and one upped me with a 1936 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Then you went and one upped me with a 1936 redux. lol, ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Seriously though, we could use some more action. The region has not been lighting it up so far this year. Not a problem yet but it could be later on if it persists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I guess if there's a time of year when dry is preferable it might be March. A sunny March is a good thing when it can be dreary and slushy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 That looks nice. MEX has 55F here for the middle/end of next week, but it could be biasing toward climo at that range as I see no real reason why we wouldn't have 60s with that kind of airmass. Will have to keep an eye on the backdoor potential but greater threat would seem to be N/E of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I guess if there's a time of year when dry is preferable it might be March. A sunny March is a good thing when it can be dreary and slushy. That'll be your May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 12z GFES have virtually lost the cold shot next week. 12z Euro and GFS have 925mb temps peaking around 15C mid-week out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 12z GFES have virtually lost the cold shot next week. 12z Euro and GFS have 925mb temps peaking around 15C mid-week out here. Good, bring it on, hopefully we can melt off all the glacier around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 12z GFES have virtually lost the cold shot next week. 12z Euro and GFS have 925mb temps peaking around 15C mid-week out here. We deserve this after the hellish B.S. winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I guess one caveat with this warmup will be how well the lower levels mix. Despite similar 925 temps on the Euro and GFS, surface temps on the GFS are about 10 degrees cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 MPX not chewing on the Euro's temps just yet. Let's hope that warm air mixes down. Low to mid 40s, while still good, would be a letdown. Especially since the normal high is quickly approaching the upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Seriously though, we could use some more action. The region has not been lighting it up so far this year. Not a problem yet but it could be later on if it persists. YearPNormUS.png You know its a cold winter when... Precip is below normal on the year yet the spring flood risk is greater than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 The weeklies came in cold...Unfortunately, not looking good for fundamental pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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