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Chicago Storm

Winter 2014/15 Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3

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Some of the most boringest runs of winter with model data, I have ever seen with arctic air snooping around. It will be the end of January and we will be like, where has the time gone.

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The GEM is a no go as well. The problem is the northern stream is flattening this potential. The -EPO is too strong and not allowing any phasing to occur, so basically what went right last year is going wrong this year.

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Nobody wants in on Tuesday's clipper?

I think that clipper has some good potential TBH...at least there is something to track

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Posted in the banter thread just a few minutes ago but figured I'd throw my $0.02 in here.  That cold being advertised at the end of January has my attention right now...  I am seriously hoping we see that moderate a bit on the charts.  Thankfully we may be eradicating most of the snow pack, or fresh snow at least, before that arrives.  I'd be willing to bet around here if some of the charts were to verify we'd be looking at temps in the -20s pretty easily.  Remember my first year at college on my birthday weekend, 2/1, we got down to -28 here in the quad cities and set our all time record coldest temperature.  I did not like that then and certainly would not care for a repeat.  I was in De Kalb and don't remember offhand what we bottomed out at up there but it was in the same ballpark.  And we didn't get classes cancelled.  

 

Very disappointing that we don't have any systems that want to come through the Midwest/Lakes region.  The pattern has just been very stingy and the correlations/indices just look kind of "blah" to me for the next couple of weeks...save for a few clippers or getting swiped by storms passing well of to the South/East.  

 

Hopefully we can get the NAO, MJO, EPO all lined up in the right spot with a decent jet/energy and get something cooked up in February.  I have hope that it will be a good month with a lot of cold lurking around and generally having a more energetic flow as Mother Nature tries transitioning us towards Springtime. 

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Whitelakeroy said...

Deedler did a nice write-up several years ago about the NAO state and snowstorms.  I will see if he still has that data.  If I recall correctly some of DTWs best snowstorms occur when the NAO is in the range of 0 to -1.  It was something he posted before he retired.

 

 

To Whitelakeroy

I made that observation and stated a few times in write ups or at work that the majority of snowstorms over the years I noticed, co-incided or were somewhat induced with the pahse change of the NAO from positive to negative. That also can involve the EPO if she's "aiding and abetting" the patern change. So that would follow the neutral zero area to negative -1.

Thanks Bill!  Your input is always great :thumbsup:

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Nobody wants in on Tuesday's clipper?

Sounds good to me as I hope to be skiing on Tuesday so a fresh clipper would be wonderful.

 

I'll take every inch that falls from Nov to March (even April if it is a decent storm).

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this is the first Alekzzzzzzzzzzzz that I'm not actually chuckling at when I read.  

 

Just brutal.  All we have is a clipper to chase at day 10.   Salt in the wound is the euro ensembles that just keep getting colder thru day 15....crazy cold.   With no snow, the ground is going to turn into concrete and the spring thaw will dragggggggggggggggggg out.  Just sucks all around.

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this is the first Alekzzzzzzzzzzzz that I'm not actually chuckling at when I read.  

 

Just brutal.  All we have is a clipper to chase at day 10.   Salt in the wound is the euro ensembles that just keep getting colder thru day 15....crazy cold.   With no snow, the ground is going to turn into concrete and the spring thaw will dragggggggggggggggggg out.  Just sucks all around.

This whole winter has been a total snoozer

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this is the first Alekzzzzzzzzzzzz that I'm not actually chuckling at when I read.  

 

Just brutal.  All we have is a clipper to chase at day 10.   Salt in the wound is the euro ensembles that just keep getting colder thru day 15....crazy cold.   With no snow, the ground is going to turn into concrete and the spring thaw will dragggggggggggggggggg out.  Just sucks all around.

It really is brutal. Nothing worse than bitter cold with no snow.

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If you want to complain about the weather there is a BANTER Thread:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44824-winter-1415-banter-complaint-thread/page-31

 

Please take it there.

 

Sure the weather may not meet your standards but for others the cold is great for winter sports.

 

isn't there a winter sports thread?   But maybe you're right, we'll need to make as much space possible to discuss and track the cold temps.

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It'll snow. Once the cold reloads every little impulse provides 1-2 inch potential. And I suspect, as Justin alluded to, the remaing residual cold will co mingle with some gulf moisture to set the stage for some nice over runners. Winter going about as projected in these parts.

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This whole winter has been a total snoozer

 

Yet we're just over an inch below normal in the snowfall department through this stage of the winter. 

 

I'd guess we manage a few nickel and dime events the last week to ten days of the month to keep pace with/near average

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The afternoon disco from MPX discusses at length the current stratus deck that stretches the entire state of MN. A full paragraph devoted to clouds without precip. Talk about nothing to discuss in the short/medium/long term. Cripes almighty.

Well I guess excessive cloudy would be something to discuss in your neck of the woods, as you guys west of Lake Michigan usually have fairly sunny winters...

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As far as the potential clipper early next week, it's synoptically similar to New Years 2008 and the Janaury 2005 clippers.

If we can get it to dig just a bit further to the south and close off (granted, this type of amplification with storm systems has been impossible to get the last few seasosn), it would be a very nice system.

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It'll snow. Once the cold reloads every little impulse provides 1-2 inch potential. And I suspect, as Justin alluded to, the remaing residual cold will co mingle with some gulf moisture to set the stage for some nice over runners. Winter going about as projected in these parts.

This and what Tsnow wrote. December was freakishly quiet across the board, but January has fit the expected pattern well. I seem to recall multiple zzzz posts in December last winter when the big -EPO pattern was showing up on the guidance and we know how that ended up. Could it end up primarily cold and dry from here on out? Sure, but at longer leads, the ens guidance isn't going to pick up on the more subtle disturbances, which could go on to produce light to moderate events. Last winter was largely dominated by the northern stream, with a few southwest/hybrid systems mixed in and I'm sure some of the smaller events "snuck up on us" so to speak.

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As far as the potential clipper early next week, it's synoptically similar to New Years 2008 and the Janaury 2005 clippers.

If we can get it to dig just a bit further to the south and close off (granted, this type of amplification with storm systems has been impossible to get the last few seasosn), it would be a very nice system.

Definitely watching the midweek clipper. Euro had about 0.25" qpf and GEM more like 0.30"+ Id say, along with the GFS going back and forth strength-wise on it.

 

Jan 1, 2008 and Jan 22, 2005. Talk about a nightmare and a sweet dream in the same sentence.

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This and what Tsnow wrote. December was freakishly quiet across the board, but January has fit the expected pattern well. I seem to recall multiple zzzz posts in December last winter when the big -EPO pattern was showing up on the guidance and we know how that ended up. Could it end up primarily cold and dry from here on out? Sure, but at longer leads, the ens guidance isn't going to pick up on the more subtle disturbances, which could go on to produce light to moderate events. Last winter was largely dominated by the northern stream, with a few southwest/hybrid systems mixed in and I'm sure some of the smaller events "snuck up on us" so to speak.

Yup, I recall those as well.

 

Had plenty of those zzzs earlier in January in the days leading up to what would be like 3-4 clippers/disturbances in a week. Big storm potential may not be much, but its not a total snoozefest either.

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Yet we're just over an inch below normal in the snowfall department through this stage of the winter. 

 

I'd guess we manage a few nickel and dime events the last week to ten days of the month to keep pace with/near average

 

 

13.7" at ORD right now, which is already about 4" above the record futile winter of 1920-21.

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13.7" at ORD right now, which is already about 4" above the record futile winter of 1920-21.

 

 

i haven't seen anyone talking about futility records or anything...it's just been a particularly dull 13.7"

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i haven't seen anyone talking about futility records or anything...it's just been a particularly dull 13.7"

Suspect you better hope for super charged clipper with 18: 1 ratios and a lake infused moisture source aka January 1-2, 2014.

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