Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I may have to open the possibility to a heavy dusting if trends keep up. Anything measurable would be a win for us, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 At first it looks like it, yes. But look at this for DPA...at 18z tomorrow it has the look of the previous clipper event with a nice DGZ up top above the warm layer then another below but has that near sfc cold layer like we saw on the 0z DVN raob the other night. dpa clipper.gif But by 0z you have almost a nearly isothermal layer in the heart of the DGZ from about 900mb-600mb dpa clipper 1.gif Looking at the NAM, it's a little further north, slower with the wave so it hangs onto the warm layer a little longer but collapses it by 3z Friday I'm not able to look at BUFKIT now. How well does the lift line up in the growth zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Thing APX issues WSWatches later today:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 ECM a bit drier but still respectable compared to what we were expecting earlier on: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 This is starting to become a more solid event, might have to up my expectations to a 2-4" vs a 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerStateWX Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Are models moving a touch south and a bit wetter? Haven't paid much attention to models and there's no SL2 posting to keep us folks on the southern fringes hopeful IWXwx Trademark stat padder brewing.. With the cold temps, timing, and wind in the aftermath it has the ingredients for a greasy mess on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 ECM a bit drier but still respectable compared to what we were expecting earlier on: ECM.png well, for once we'll benefit from being in the NE part of the CWA looks like we could squeeze 2" if everything works out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 well, for once we'll benefit from being in the NE part of the CWA looks like we could squeeze 2" if everything works out I would say general 1-2 is a good call. Will most likely fall somewhere closer to the 1, but still about 100% more than I had expected waking up this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I would say general 1-2 is a good call. Will most likely fall somewhere closer to the 1, but still about 100% more than I had expected waking up this morning. That's what we're generally going with. Will be interesting to see if the Canadian models hold steady with the higher qpf with the 00z runs (and 18z for the RGEM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 NMM ... clearly LE is impacting the favored spots.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 mkx pulled the trigger on a wwa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 15z SREF mean around 2" for Chicago. Ratios it's showing seem a bit more realistic this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 18Z NAM looks a little quicker and wetter coming through Minnesota and wisco through H24 compared to 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 18Z NAM looks a little quicker and wetter coming through Minnesota and wisco through H24 compared to 12Z Yep looks a little south and stronger at the sfc/850mb as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 SREF mean at YYZ is 3.8" but even the lowest member still has 1.6". Usually there's a cluster of NMN members that have virtually nothing. Raises my confidence that we're at least going to get a shovellable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 18z NAM vs. 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Our new snow map hasn't been published yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 18z NAM vs. 12z NAM nam.gif Seems to fall well in line with the SREF. Boy what a jump. Usually happens the opposite way http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2_means.php?YMD=20150107&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ORD&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 18z NAM says 'sorry, better luck next time'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 18z NAM vs. 12z NAM Looks like the QPF shield just expanded a bit in general....and moved some of the lollipop areas around...Milwaukee improved on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 SREF mean at YYZ is 3.8" but even the lowest member still has 1.6". Usually there's a cluster of NMN members that have virtually nothing. Raises my confidence that we're at least going to get a shovellable snow. EC is calling for 1-1.5" tomorrow night. Temperatures will be around 14-17F during the heaviest rates, making way for some good ratios. http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-143_metric_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 EC is calling for 1-1.5" tomorrow night. Temperatures will be around 14-17F during the heaviest rates, making way for some good ratios. http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-143_metric_e.html Sfc temps really don't have much affect on ratios, but COBB technique off the 12z NAM was showing 13/14:1 ratios with the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Anyone have an opinion on whether winds will be too strong and possibly hurt flake size? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Seems to fall well in line with the SREF. Boy what a jump. Usually happens the opposite way http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2_means.php?YMD=20150107&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ORD&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap you can only go up when you start at zero looks like i'll be busting low on my .00001" call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Anyone have an opinion on whether winds will be too strong and possibly hurt flake size?models keep beefing up qpf so we Have that as a buffer in Michigan, but wind hurts ratios, guarenteed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Anyone have an opinion on whether winds will be too strong and possibly hurt flake size?models keep beefing up qpf so we Have that as a buffer in Michigan, but wind hurts ratios, guarenteed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 18z RGEM still bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Am I the only one seeing double? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 New car battery and I'm feeling giddy. Second call for LAF...0.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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