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BIG FROSTY

Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III

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Is a high centered in TN a good thing?

This is for next weekend right? Our best storms come a few days after a heatwave in the winter, so I've heard!!? This one is the one!

A whole bunch better than having a low there....

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Robert says not to get out your sandals just yet after this little warm up next week he sees cold, very cold and stormy. couple of those big arctic highs coming down and some storms for the last half of March. I'd say the atmosphere is reloading.

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Robert says not to get out your sandals just yet after this little warm up next week he sees cold, very cold and stormy. couple of those big arctic highs coming down and some storms for the last half of March. I'd say the atmosphere is reloading.

Any blocking? No? Congrats Roanoke.

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Just when you thought it was over, HPC says watch out next Wednesday night - Friday , for some wintry mischief , from TX through the Carolinas ! Enjoy the thaw, cause the " one" is on the way, sometime in March!

 

Yep looks anafrontal with snow on the models and then the energy that ejects out forms a low off the SE coast that move ENE out to sea which is a great look for central and eastern NC and even down into central and coastal SC....

 

THE 'FOUR CORNERS' ENERGY MOVING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND

FORMING THE LEAD BOUNDARY APPEARS TO DELAY THE ARCTIC

FRONT---INITIALLY 'SETTLED' OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND

DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE'S EXIT ACROSS THE

EASTERN GREAT LAKES---SHOULD HELP BETTER TIME THE ARCTIC AIRMASS

PLUNGE AND ITS SOUTHEASTWARD SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN

STATES---FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE

PERIOD---CONCERNS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPSTREAM

(SOUTHERN BRANCH) ENERGY---STILL APPARENTLY LINGERING BACK ACROSS

THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THOUGH THE 27/00Z

DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS LITTLE IN COMMON WITH THE LOCATION OF

THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY THAT MAY GENERATE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX---THE

BROAD-SCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS ANOTHER 'OVER-RUNNING TYPE' SCENARIO

IS POSSIBLE (HAS POTENTIAL) FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD TO

THE CAROLINAS---WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

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climo says you're wrong.

 

I am going to assume I know more about where I live climo wise than you do.  Outside of the mountains a snow event at this point has minuscule odds.  Considering the next week is going to be a warm spell you can pretty much put the final nail in the coffin for the ATL burbs and south.  The N. GA mountains has a very small window as well. 

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I am going to assume I know more about where I live climo wise than you do. Outside of the mountains a snow event at this point has minuscule odds. Considering the next week is going to be a warm spell you can pretty much put the final nail in the coffin for the ATL burbs and south. The N. GA mountains has a very small window as well.

you assumed wrong.

https://www.sercc.com/climateinfo/historical/avgsnowfall.html

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I am going to assume I know more about where I live climo wise than you do.  Outside of the mountains a snow event at this point has minuscule odds.  Considering the next week is going to be a warm spell you can pretty much put the final nail in the coffin for the ATL burbs and south.  The N. GA mountains has a very small window as well. 

Lol. March has had several non mountain events. Not sure if this post was meant for a joke?

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I'm not the one forcing my opinion on people, I posted facts.

 

Lol. March has had several non mountain events. Not sure if this post was meant for a joke?

 

Ok guys, enjoy reveling in your snow delusions.  I'm out.

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again, I posted facts. Can you back up your claim with any data?

 

Yeah, most of the snow ATL receives is in the first two weeks of march, the first week of march the NWS seems to see as east coast ridging and west coast trofing.  That puts us around 3/7/15.  As GA storm stated there are "several" events that have taken place in March outside in Mountains in GA.  That said Several over the course of 100 years is still minute.  The odds are VERY low to almost zero ATL sees another accumulating snow this season.  You didn't post any facts btw, your link isn't official from the NWS.  Also again if you were from here you would know March snowfall in ATL is heavily weighted towards the first two weeks. 

 

You're wrong but go ahead and keep thinking you're right, don't really care...  I've stated my side people can decide for themselves. You mention forcing opinions on people..  How about next time you see one of mine you don't try to force your opinion that I'm wrong down my throat.

 

Again like Mark Cuban, I'm out.

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I am going to assume I know more about where I live climo wise than you do. Outside of the mountains a snow event at this point has minuscule odds. Considering the next week is going to be a warm spell you can pretty much put the final nail in the coffin for the ATL burbs and south. The N. GA mountains has a very small window as well.

Plenty of cold rain chances most likely. We can get snow all the way to April but it will be very hard to get that type of pattern. I will be steadying my mater seeds this weekend while hoping for some warmer weather.

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Plenty of cold rain chances most likely. We can get snow all the way to April but it will be very hard to get that type of pattern. I will be steadying my mater seeds this weekend while hoping for some warmer weather.

 

Couldn't' agree more that said up your way you obviously have a better shot than us south of you.  I drove from my house to Cartersville during the storm and the changes were amazing.  It went from a dusting to five inches in the course of 15 miles and a 20 minute trip up I-75.  I've got to say I'm highly jealous of folks who live up your way.

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Yeah, most of the snow ATL receives is in the first two weeks of march, the first week of march the NWS seems to see as east coast ridging and west coast trofing. That puts us around 3/7/15. As GA storm stated there are "several" events that have taken place in March outside in Mountains in GA. That said Several over the course of 100 years is still minute. The odds are VERY low to almost zero ATL sees another accumulating snow this season. You didn't post any facts btw, your link isn't official from the NWS. Also again if you were from here you would know March snowfall in ATL is heavily weighted towards the first two weeks.

You're wrong but go ahead and keep thinking you're right, don't really care... I've stated my side people can decide for themselves. You mention forcing opinions on people.. How about next time you see one of mine you don't try to force your opinion that I'm wrong down my throat.

Again like Mark Cuban, I'm out.

But, but, but, JB says from 14 to the end of the month was gonna be rockin for everyone! Boston will break it's all time snowfall record by Sun, they are 5 inches away last I heard. All that Boston snowpack will make for some good cad scenarios, so Marvelous March incoming!

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Couldn't' agree more that said up your way you obviously have a better shot than us south of you. I drove from my house to Cartersville during the storm and the changes were amazing. It went from a dusting to five inches in the course of 15 miles and a 20 minute trip up I-75. I've got to say I'm highly jealous of folks who live up your way.

I felt bad for yall while driving south yesterday. I didn't realize how quickly it dropped off. I was very fortunate to just catch the good stuff.

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Larry has posted several storm dates in March and not all were the first 2 weeks of the month. I agree though that after the first 2 weeks it's pretty much a done deal.

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Who cares what the odds are anyway, really? We're not betting money. And it doesn't change the fun of looking at the models and seeing if there's a chance. Maybe we'll look and won't see anything. Ok. Maybe we will. It's still fun to track something isn't it, or does lower odds make it less fun?

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Who cares what the odds are anyway, really? We're not betting money. And it doesn't change the fun of looking at the models and seeing if there's a chance. Maybe we'll look and won't see anything. Ok. Maybe we will. It's still fun to track something isn't it, or does lower odds make it less fun?

 

Get ready to track a huge warm up and possible severe storms.

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Get ready to track a huge warm up and possible severe storms.

 

There is more support for tracking more cold and wintery weather in the SE than huge warm ups and severe storms over the next week or so...unless you count 2-3 days in the mid 60's as a huge warmup

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There is more support for tracking more cold and wintery weather in the SE than huge warm ups and severe storms over the next week or so...unless you count 2-3 days in the mid 60's as a huge warmup

 

NWS GSP

 

AS OF 325 AM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE ONLY HINTED AT DURING

THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS MAJOR

WESTERN CONUS HEIGHT FALLS FORCE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE EAST...WITH

A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EAST COAST BY DAY

7.

 

I'll take the NWS over blogger Mets who are trying to sell subscriptions with hype.  #patternchange #springiscoming #wintergoesbyebye

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