CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Tons of spread on the clipper next week on the GEFS. Pretty much shows you the options. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Tone of spread on the clipper next week on the GEFS. Pretty shows you the options. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html Yeah to be expected. There's some upside to that one if we track that vort south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The day 10 euro ensemble mean looks like a +AO nightmare. Are there any signs of help from the strat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The day 10 euro ensemble mean looks like a +AO nightmare. Are there any signs of help from the strat? i didnt think it looked that bad. Looks worse now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 After that (day 10), the ridging tries to move east. It's a little bit of a regime change as the AK block retros and the PNA tries to go + down the road. I gotta say, the models are having a tough time and the EC has changed its tune a lot. If we can pop the PNA then it would help all of us, including the MA. Clearly the +NAO will eventually need to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Isn't the ten day euro written in stone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Isn't the ten day euro written in stone? Well when you look at the hemispheric height patterns, the ensembles give you a better overall image and are usually more accurate as compared to specific areas of low pressure which is what I assume you sarcastically mean. But yes, if you are tracking an area of low pressure at day 10, may the force be with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Well when you look at the hemispheric height patterns, the ensembles give you a better overall image and are usually more accurate as compared to specific areas of low pressure which is what I assume you sarcastically mean. But yes, if you are tracking an area of low pressure at day 10, may the force be with you.Tone was geared to terms like "nightmare". Your explanation makes sense of it without the hyperbole. As far as LP systems go, if we haven't been taught a little humility with regard to believing in end of the run fantasies by this point, we're unteachable. Question is what the latest ensemble is hinting at regarding the overall pattern. Is it indicating a full scale change or is it simply a hiatus with a shift back to colder? Unlike some on the boards I have no personal investment in a particular outcome. Have my preferences, of course but that has nothing to do with learning a bit more about how this great atmospheric machine works. Hard to avoid sarcasm when naturally given to being a curmudgeon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Tone was geared to terms like "nightmare". Your explanation makes sense of it without the hyperbole. As far as LP systems go, if we haven't been taught a little humility with regard to believing in end of the run fantasies by this point, we're unteachable. Question is what the latest ensemble is hinting at regarding the overall pattern. Is it indicating a full scale change or is it simply a hiatus with a shift back to colder? Unlike some on the boards I have no personal investment in a particular outcome. Have my preferences, of course but that has nothing to do with learning a bit more about how this great atmospheric machine works. Hard to avoid sarcasm when naturally given to being a curmudgeon It's certainly a complicated one. The GEFS basically rebuild the EPO ridge after it temporarily weakens after next week, while the euro break it down significantly, but then tries to build a ridge closer to the west coast which is a good thing down the road if it gets established. Both sets of guidance remain stubborn. My guess is probably closer to the GEFS because I've seen the EC swing a bit, but both have a period of some relaxation of bitter cold, but more storminess. This isn't necessarily cutters either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Tone was geared to terms like "nightmare". Your explanation makes sense of it without the hyperbole. As far as LP systems go, if we haven't been taught a little humility with regard to believing in end of the run fantasies by this point, we're unteachable. Question is what the latest ensemble is hinting at regarding the overall pattern. Is it indicating a full scale change or is it simply a hiatus with a shift back to colder?Unlike some on the boards I have no personal investment in a particular outcome. Have my preferences, of course but that has nothing to do with learning a bit more about how this great atmospheric machine works. Hard to avoid sarcasm when naturally given to being a curmudgeon Not one ounce of hyperbole in saying the ensemble (left map) looks like a nightmare. In fact, you would be hard pressed to draw an uglier AO than this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 get_legacy_plot-web249-20150101035111-28081-2699.gif Not one ounce of hyperbole in saying the ensemble (left map) looks like a nightmare. In fact, you would be hard pressed to draw an uglier AO than this: Looks pretty good for cold and snow lovers in northern and eastern Europe, doesn't it? Kne w this was the year I should have planned that trip to Moscow and St. Petersburg! With ruble devaluation it would have been a good bargain, too. They haven't been cashing in on snow this year either. Looks like they may be getting a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Judah Cohen's discussion was interesting, predicting an early January major SSW. He believes the -AO develops and we stay cold in Eastern NA straight through the rest of January, after our brief warmup (at least south of here) this weekend. That anomolous low over the Barents sea, he thinks interferes with cold getting into Europe but not here. It was a good read and a very optimistic one for us I think. Seems like a dry cold spell through Thursday after this weekend's storm and then perhaps stormy again around the 9th and 10th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Judah Cohen's discussion was interesting, predicting an early January major SSW. He believes the -AO develops and we stay cold in Eastern NA straight through the rest of January, after our brief warmup (at least south of here) this weekend. That anomolous low over the Barents sea, he thinks interferes with cold getting into Europe but not here. It was a good read and a very optimistic one for us I think. Seems like a dry cold spell through Thursday after this weekend's storm and then perhaps stormy again around the 9th and 10th? Except that's not going to happen in early Jan. The SSW that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Except that's not going to happen in early Jan. The SSW that is. Isn't his discussion a couple weeks old now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Isn't his discussion a couple weeks old now? I think he wrote one a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I think he wrote one a few days ago. Saying that a SSW was going to occur in the next week or two? I missed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Interesting pattern on the GEFS vs EC. EC looks pretty lousy in the 11-15 day while the GEFS have a nice +PNA developing. Hopefully the GEFS are right. In the meantime behind any clipper next week, bitter cold arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Saying that a SSW was going to occur in the next week or two? I missed it The vortex does split, but it comes right back again. So I am confused why he seems to call it a SSW. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Just looking at the EC compared to 12z, it definitely wants to try and better the heights out west, so that's good. Maybe a GEFS/EC compromise is in store which would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The vortex does split, but it comes right back again. So I am confused why he seems to call it a SSW. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Yeah, he kind of snuck in the sentence below which indicates we need continued warming, like you said it's not a SSW but I guess it's probably close to a minor SSW per the Euro. Don't you get then strat EPS out to day 15? Does it continue to show warming? Cohen Blog: Based on the ECMWF forecast, the SSW will get close to a major SSW (defined as a zonal mean easterly wind at 10 hPa and 60°N) and would likely achieve major SSW strength with further wave driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Yeah, he kind of snuck in the sentence below which indicates we need continued warming, like you said it's not a SSW but I guess it's probably close to a minor SSW per the Euro. Don't you get then strat EPS out to day 15? Does it continue to show warming? Cohen Blog: Based on the ECMWF forecast, the SSW will get close to a major SSW (defined as a zonal mean easterly wind at 10 hPa and 60°N) and would likely achieve major SSW strength with further wave driving. Yeah and all models at 10-50mb consolidate it right back to a black hole near the N Pole. Maybe the models are wrong, but to me, that doesn't look like a SSW. Maybe we get another push later this month or Feb...but nothing to exciting right now in that dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Isn't his discussion a couple weeks old now? He wrote the discussion on Dec 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The models imply air colder than last year for New England after any clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The models imply air colder than last year for New England after any clipper. is an overrunning system still on the table around the 10th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 is an overrunning system still on the table around the 10th? Somewhere around that time give or take a couple of days maybe? I also hesitate to claim what type of system it is this far out. It could be anything at this stage. Looks a little active regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The models imply air colder than last year for New England after any clipper. -30C at 850 sneaking into VT! Man that's gonna be brutal on the summits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Somewhere around that time give or take a couple of days maybe? I also hesitate to claim what type of system it is this far out. It could be anything at this stage. Looks a little active regardless. active is what we want. We have a great cold air supply. good enough up here for a few weeks it seems then pray for the nao...although i kept saying that last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Interesting pattern on the GEFS vs EC. EC looks pretty lousy in the 11-15 day while the GEFS have a nice +PNA developing. Hopefully the GEFS are right. In the meantime behind any clipper next week, bitter cold arrives. When in doubt stick with EC. It will always verify better than the GEFS which is unfortunate because GEFS has a nice pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 When in doubt stick with EC. It will always verify better than the GEFS which is unfortunate because GEFS has a nice pattern. The GEFS aren't that bad...the EC ensmebles are better, but the GEFS do win sometimes. They beat the EC ensembles for this upcoming week back in the 11-15 range. At any rate, its usually not one pattern verifying vs the other, but some sort of blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 When in doubt stick with EC. It will always verify better than the GEFS which is unfortunate because GEFS has a nice pattern. Lol...except for the period we're in now back 11-15 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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