rossi Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The PGFS for next week is essentially a very strong clipper that redevelops offshore. A solution with very little support at this time. Its funny I sound like JB but Feb 5, 1978 thas exactly how we received a major snowstorm. Clipper redeveloped of Va. coast and 18 inches later. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Its funny I sound like JB but Feb 5, 1978 thas exactly how we received a major snowstorm. Clipper redeveloped of Va. coast and 18 inches later. Rossi Well it blows the storm up just offshore and we get clobbered. It's actually an amazing solution for us, I'm just saying that it doesn't get there the same way that the other modeling does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The PGFS gets it down to 972mb near Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 If the second wave comes out as amped as the 0z Euro and 12 GFS show, there isn't anything preventing it from coming in too warm coast. A goldilocks track will be tough with out any blocking ahead of the low. It's not a warm solution at all. The surface would be in the 20's West of the Hudson to start and then in the 20's for all of us once the low moved into SNE. The evolution between the PGFS and GFS/GGEM/ECMWF are worlds apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 It's not a warm solution at all. The surface would be in the 20's West of the Hudson to start and then in the 20's for all of us once the low moved into SNE. I am talking about what may actually happen as those tracks will come west over time if they stay that amped. That's why you never want to be in the jackpot 7-9 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Here is the PGFS which shows the clipper redeveloping offshore. And here is the GFS OP which shows the system developing down south And here is the 00z ECMWF which looks like the 12z GFS OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 If the second wave comes out as amped as the 0z Euro and 12 GFS show, there isn't anything preventing it from coming in too warm coast. A goldilocks track will be tough without any blocking ahead of the low. -EPO highs are great as long as the attacking low isn't too strong. OBX to CC gets you great result in mid Jan far different than early Dec . This has been on the ensembles since the 3rd , now we are about 7 days away . I don`t expect to see this exact solution from here on in its hard (next to impossible ) to be JP 7 days out and run the table every run . But this solution is plausible considering what a trough cutting under those kind of heights can produce . I have been arguing that look for 4 days now , now can it hold ? , can we get the perfect track ? we could . But I would not lose my mind when the models wobble . Pretty good period upcoming . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I am talking about what may actually happen as those tracks will come west over time if they stay that amped. That's why you never want to be in the jackpot 7-9 days out. If the this evolved aloft similar to what the PGFS is showing there is no way that it ends up warm. Now if everything digs more like the Euro and GFS OP shows, then yes, you don't want to be super amped. But you don't want weak sauce either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Moderate, wind blown snow squall right now in Bayside, Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Any EURO updates for this Friday or early next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Moderate, wind blown snow squall right now in Bayside, Queens.same here in hicksville, just lasted for like 5 minutes. Nothing showed up on radar, kinda weird. Edit: now I see the squalls on some radar apps, the one I was using was kinda crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015010712/ecmwf_T850_eus_8.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015010712/ecmwf_T850a_eus_8.png ecmwf_T850_eus_8.png Intentionally misleading....And the surface freezing line is over or just east of nyc. Its light snow to ice. Then a storm rides up the coast around hr 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015010712/ecmwf_T850_eus_8.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015010712/ecmwf_T850a_eus_8.png ecmwf_T850_eus_8.png Dude what reason would have to make this look the euro for next week ? KNYC Snows from 117 to 150 with the 1st wave ending as FRZ Then has MECS that follows this at 186 . You are way better than this , then to mislead these guys . Maybe it wasn`t intentional but this is a terrible answer to the posters question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Wow I will take my chances with the 192 hour euro and where it heads from there any day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Active week coming up get your sleep now :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Man..that second storm has to be a perfect thread the needle to work with the first storm becoming the 50/50. Looks like it will be very difficult to actually pull off. But at least the pattern is getting active. And that`s fair , But the 12z suite today all thread the needle PARA GEM EURO . The poster asked for a Euro update and he posted a map that half way between 2 snow events . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Man..that second storm has to be a perfect thread the needle to work with the first storm becoming the 50/50. Looks like it will be very difficult to actually pull off. But at least the pattern is getting active. The set up is not ideal but it's def not a bad one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I done here snow weenies JFC post data and im the devil???? yeah I am better than this tommy e It's not about that. I love snow but will never just disregard what a model is showing (unless it makes no sense). But you what you posted was very misleading. Just speaking the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I done here snow weenies JFC post data and im the devil???? yeah I am better than this tommy e Dude ,come on . You posted a 168 850 map after there was 24- 36 hours of frozen precip at KNYC and 20 hours after that its snowing up and down I 95 . You don`t have to agree with the Euro , but we can`t omit what it actually shows . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Does anybody know when the euro monthly comes out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Dude ,come on . You posted a 168 850 map after there was 24- 36 hours of frozen precip at KNYC and 20 hours after that its snowing up and down I 95 . You don`t have to agree with the Euro , but we can`t omit what it actually shows . http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015010712/ecmwf_T850a_eus.html http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015010712/ecmwf_T850a_eus_9.png bash again http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015010712/ecmwf_T850a_eus_10.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Heavy snow squall over great neck LI right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015010712/ecmwf_T850a_eus.html http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015010712/ecmwf_T850a_eus_9.png bash again http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015010712/ecmwf_T850a_eus_10.png At 192 its Minus 1 to Minus 2 at KNYC . Normal BL splits at KNYC are 38 -28 , So on Jan 14 the N 850`s should equate to -5 in order to be considered Normal . So the anomaly means ( its 4C too warm against the normals ) but it is - 1 to -2 at 850 with precip falling that why at 192 so it`s 31F at KNYC at 192 . Anomalies mean nothing here . You did not get bashed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 And a day 8 solution is not the argument here . There is day 5 over running solution is being totally ignored as we get hung up in the LR . Day 5 1st - Foucs there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 And a day 8 solution is not the argument here . There is day 5 over running solution is being totally ignored as we get hung up in the LR . Day 5 1st - Foucs there. Spag day 5 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gefs-spag/12/gefs-spag_atlantic_120_500_522_564_ht.gif day 8 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gefs-spag/12/gefs-spag_atlantic_192_500_522_564_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Nice snow shower moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Has a snow to rain look on the Euro as the Arctic high scoots east due to lack of 50/50. Frozen from 117 to 150 . Then the 850's jump at 156 along w the BL . The front side is frozen. That matters when asked what is the euro showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Frozen from 117 to 150 . Then the 850's jump at 156 along w the BL . The front side is frozen. That matters when asked what is the euro showing. But The 850's/BL jumps when most of the precip has ended. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Driving home from quakertown PA...hit the squall, was pretty intense. 78 got snow covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Impressive squalls with convective features along the arctic front this afternoon. This picture taken out of my window in Queens, looking northwest. Bursts of snow have been observed across much of the area ahead of this arctic boundary. This is what an arctic front looks like: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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