franklin NCwx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Good point, thank you! I do like the look of the GFS today. Anyone check the ENS? both of them?euro ensembles have done a 180 in the 6-10. Much colder look with ridging out west. Brings in a trough to the west from the Pacific in the 11-15. Both ensembles have done poorly in the 11-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 euro ensembles have done a 180 in the 6-10. Much colder look with ridging out west. Brings in a trough to the west from the Pacific in the 11-15. Both ensembles have done poorly in the 11-15. The EPS still has that pesky SE ridge though ;/ but the northeast looks pretty cold around d8-10. (not saying it will stick around forever though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Thanks everyone! New video is up, I will have a better look at the whole weather picture tomorrow, but from what I could see and tell today, the pattern does look like its changing and for the better overall. I do really think that the I-40 corridor still has the best chance to see anything wintry first. Could we see something next weekend? The euro looks more powerful with that low. My guess its too strong, but we shall see. Thanks for watching. Lets keep the push on to get to 700 likes on FB. Thanks everyone for being patient with me this weekend. -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I just glanced at the 18Z GEFS. Nothing great at all. No blocking yada yada yada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 That's interesting the difference between Jan/Feb. In Jan it's clear we need to be in 6-7-8 or COD but Feb there doesn't seem to be a winner but rather to avoid 1-2-3. Edit: Interesting the Euro has us getting to phase 6 after Jan 7-8th, about the time it shows a chance at something. Also consider to that the RMM MJO spends ~40% of it's time within the COD, & per capita, phases 6-8 are much more favorable... January phase 7 has the right combination of stronger jet wavelengths, climatology, & +ENSO background state never hurts to amplify the induced Rossby Wave Train that results in a blocking up of the pattern over the northeastern Pacific & thus coincident undercutting by the southern branch of the jet of anomalous ridging over Alaska & northwestern North America, a -EPO... January MJO Phase 7 500mb all amplitudes January MJO Phase 7 500mb all amplitudes w/ +ENSO That looks awfully familiar. I watch these CCKW diagrams as (if not more) frequently as many here look to the model guidance, combined w/ other conditions at hand, passage thru the 30-60E band as we get near the 2nd week of January leaves us even at this early stage w/ a an outdoor chance of mischief during this period. In any case, there is no reason get worked up if nothing comes of this, we won't even reach the halfway point of our winter (in terms of snowfall) until the beginning of February, and knowing it is generally the most favorable month vs climatology for wintry wx in +ENSO years, not just in the SE US, but on the US eastern seaboard, we have a lot of winter left in front of us (still ~85-90% to go even at the end of December). We are just getting started... Nice to see Garfunkel et al's SSWE research I discussed here several weeks ago verifying, notice the similarity in the SSW "precursor" pattern (on the far right) (especially w/ the low heights over the far north Pacific) to the 500mb over the last 10 days... & right on cue, we're starting to see the stratosphere warm... ECMWF 10mb geopotential height & temperature initialization December 27, 2014 w/ significant downturns in the 10 & 30mb zonal wind upcoming, indicative of appreciable deceleration of the polar night jet by heat/momentum flux from Planetary & Mid-latitude Rossby Waves & at the very least a minor SSWE... as well as noteworthy upticks in 100mb heat eddy flux. We're already in the early stages of at least a minor stratospheric warming event, potential eastward progression of the MJO through the phases 6-8 & subsequent Pacific jet extension would be the final nail in the coffin, but uncertainty obviously remains in the intensity & longevity of this stratospheric warming event, but there's no doubt one is already underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I just glanced at the 18Z GEFS. Nothing great at all. No blocking yada yada yada.Yeah a western ridge, with a pushed back SE ridge and a PV that keeps a suppressed storm track isn't good at all. Not to mention the coldest air on the planet ends up in North America . All in the 7-12 day periodBy the way if by " blocking " your talking about the NAO , the GEFS has not had an NAO block for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Yeah a western ridge, with a pushed back SE ridge and a PV that keeps a suppressed storm track isn't good at all. Not to mention the coldest air on the planet ends up in North America . All in the 7-12 day period By the way if by " blocking " your talking about the NAO , the GEFS has not had an NAO block for a while No, as I clearly showed in my post above, a strong PV anomaly over southern Canada & the eastern US w/ attendant ridging focused over Alaska is an ideal pattern for wintry weather in the southeastern US... the NAO & AO isn't nearly as important to us @ least for snowfall as the EPO which is fixing to crash due to a strong anticyclonic N Pac wave breaking event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 We can't get a negative nao with the polar vortex in se Canada. But it can act like a pseudo block. IIke how the se ridge is getting beaten down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 No, as I clearly showed in my post above, a strong PV anomaly over southern Canada & the eastern US w/ attendant ridging focused over Alaska is an ideal pattern for wintry weather in the southeastern US... the NAO & AO isn't nearly as important to us @ least for snowfall as the EPO which is fixing to crash due to a strong anticyclonic N Pac wave breaking event... There may be a malfunction in your sarcasm detection system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 No, as I clearly showed in my post above, a strong PV anomaly over southern Canada & the eastern US w/ attendant ridging focused over Alaska is an ideal pattern for wintry weather in the southeastern US... the NAO & AO isn't nearly as important to us @ least for snowfall as the EPO which is fixing to crash due to a strong anticyclonic N Pac wave breaking event... Right I clearly agree with you as my post said the PV keeping the storm track suppressed. I was being sarcastic in response to the post I commented on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 There may be a malfunction in your sarcasm detection system. If everyone would file this away in their memory banks, we can avoid future problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Right I clearly agree with you as my post said the PV keeping the storm track suppressed. I was being sarcastic in response to the post I commented on Cool... Yeah I will have to take a look at the actual numbers, but even from a visual standpoint the EPO appears to contribute significantly more to the variance of the patterns that lead to the big storms here in the SE US than the NAO/AO & even PNA indices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Cool... Yeah I will have to take a look at the actual numbers, but even from a visual standpoint the EPO appears to contribute significantly more to the variance of the patterns that lead to the big storms here in the SE US than the NAO/AO & even PNA indices That's interesting , would be interested in seeing those numbers . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Cool... Yeah I will have to take a look at the actual numbers, but even from a visual standpoint the EPO appears to contribute significantly more to the variance of the patterns that lead to the big storms here in the SE US than the NAO/AO & even PNA indicesWebber, I assume that you agree that the Miller A lows that lead to widespread major wintry precip. in the SE (the so-called big storms) are actually typically weak as far as min. SLP is concerned while still in the Gulf. (They often start winding up as they round the bend, of course.) When I say widespread, I mean much more than just NC/TN. I studied the old maps extensively to confirm my suspicions about 32 Miller A's that included a big SN or IP hit on ATL. I even found several Miller A's with min GOM SLP of 1017-20 mb that produced big SE snows/sleets. I found only 3 of the 32 to have gone below 1,000 mb with two being in the high 990's and the other being the 1993 Storm of the Century. Strong storms typically allow for too warm air to impact much of the SE. Also, a, say, 1010 mb low results in a relatively strong gradient when there is a strong high wedging down into, say, GA. So, I actually typically root for a weak low as a Miller A. With only 3 of the Miller A's having produced major SN/IP at ATL since the late 1800's getting below 1,000 mb, there must be something to this idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Cool... Yeah I will have to take a look at the actual numbers, but even from a visual standpoint the EPO appears to contribute significantly more to the variance of the patterns that lead to the big storms here in the SE US than the NAO/AO & even PNA indices I was just reading about the Garfinkel precursor, saw your tweet. The euro still keeps the lower heights over that region for atleast the next week. Very interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Webber, I assume that you agree that the Miller A lows that lead to widespread major wintry precip. in the SE (the so-called big storms) are actually typically weak as far as min. SLP is concerned while still in the Gulf. (They often start winding up as they round the bend, of course.) When I say widespread, I mean much more than just NC/TN. I studied the old maps extensively to confirm my suspicions about 32 Miller A's that included a big SN or IP hit on ATL. I even found several Miller A's with min GOM SLP of 1017-20 mb that produced big SE snows/sleets. I found only 3 of the 32 to have gone below 1,000 mb with two being in the high 990's and the other being the 1993 Storm of the Century. Strong storms typically allow for too warm air to impact much of the SE. Also, a, say, 1010 mb low results in a relatively strong gradient when there is a strong high wedging down into, say, GA. So, I actually typically root for a weak low as a Miller A. With only 3 of the Miller A's having produced major SN/IP at ATL since the late 1800's getting below 1,000 mb, there must be something to this idea. I agree on this premise & I think it also has to do w/ location & climatology. Once you reach the Carolinas, Miller A's become a much bigger deal, as natural baroclinicity is energized by the juxtaposition of the Gulf Stream to the intrusive Labrador Current & the climatologically cooler air that often overruns the Gulf Stream, especially the further north you go, this is a huge instigator for generating massive coastal lows along w/ other favorable atmospheric parameters. It's also easier for the northern stream to capture a system closer to 40-45N as opposed to the deep south, & in the latter case, you run the risk of receiving meandering cut-offs instead of massive, well organized cyclone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Para is interesting day 7-8, PV pressing down over SE Canada, 1040hp rotating underneath and a gulf low from the cut off in Tx that's been refusing to eject it seems like forever now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Para gives central/NoVA a big winter storm day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Para gives central/NoVA a big winter storm day 8.Maybe we get some ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The 0Z GFS is better for outdoor activities in the 11-15 than for winter storm watching. I'll make sure to get in lots of quality walking then while I can. It looks like the Jan. thaw would be ongoing for the SE then but hopefully not for too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Maybe we get some ice? No, wintery stuff is confined to north of VA/NC line. I think the MA gets like 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The 0Z GFS is better for outdoor activities in the 11-15 than for winter storm watching. I'll make sure to get in lots of quality walking then while I can. It looks like the Jan. thaw would be ongoing for the SE then but hopefully not for too long. Lol its one run . this run does some funky things with the western ridge . still fired up for the 5th-11th period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 0Z GFS temps moderated alot from the 12z GFS. Atleast it's still 8+ days out, so I'm not drawing any conclusions or anything like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Winter Storm Watches are out for much of the Mojave Desert Including the city of Las Vegas, could see a light accumulation of snow up to 1 inch... This is just plain nuts. http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=vef&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Lol its one run . this run does some funky things with the western ridge . still fired up for the 5th-11th period Meanwhile gfs para has major winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Meanwhile gfs para has major winter storm Yeah the para looked good. Problem is I don't know that I trust the para, i don't trust any of them but I still feel like the para isn't very good . Maybe it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Fun times ahead hopefully on the euro. not for me tonight tho, I enjoy going to bed early. I posted a cool question and I'm curious to see what yall say on it. I'm sure I know a few. Lol www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Wow, EURO must have been a real dud, no posts since midnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Hey guys, I'm back. Family was in town after Christmas so had those obligations to deal with. Euro was pretty "meh". Nothing special in the LR. Looks like I was def. wrong about Jan. 1....A few things, one moving to a more seasonal to above average pattern I worry we don't see a flip until at least the middle of the month. We've seen how these patterns tend to overstay their welcome both cold and mild vs. what the models show. The flip side of that is that this week much colder air will be making it's way down. Can it stick around just long enough to give a surprise? I've also said it before but I could be wrong about this, IRRC when the UK ends up with big time cold that usually does not bode well for us. They are currently in a huge cold spell. That is what has me worried the most moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Uhhhh - I can't be the only one seeing the eery similarity to last year, right? With how Jan looks to begin, the N/D/J time frame from a year ago compared to this year is actually quite familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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