Met1985 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 You two will join the dark side soon enough :-) You have to admit that you were not expecting the first 6 weeks of winter for central NC to be +3 to +4F, with a solid +AO/NAO, and the entire east coast well below average for snow? Let's face it DJF isn't going to average a negative temp anomaly, which I know isn't important but nobody was expecting that. To be honest I will be more surprised if we finish at climo for snow. I don't think we will get skunked. it is a big surprise to me but even if we just get a couple of weeks in February and March I will be ok with winter. You win some and lose some every year. I am actually looking down the road and wondering when we will get a decent negate nao again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 You two will join the dark side soon enough :-) You have to admit that you were not expecting the first 6 weeks of winter for central NC to be +3 to +4F, with a solid +AO/NAO, and the entire east coast well below average for snow? Let's face it DJF isn't going to average a negative temp anomaly, which I know isn't important but nobody was expecting that. To be honest I will be more surprised if we finish at climo for snow. I don't think we will get skunked. I did not have much stock in Dec as I normally dont. I did not expect to see the consensus so low in the snow dept. I did think however we would be looking at a more favorable pattern and the se ridge, and strength of it is a huge surprise. The book is not written on January or the first ten days. What we see is just a "modeled" pattern. There is plenty of winter left and it's our most favorable Climo time.Things can turn around, and quickly. I remember the winter of 10-11 that was great but it was a winter of only 6 weeks. Winter started early that year in Dec and ended in mid January. What was supposed to be a bad winter was a good one. But after the early January big snow we lost the +pna and -nao and La Niña quickly took over. We don't live in an area that averages a lot of snow a few good storms for the mtns and 1-2 can make a winter for central nc. It looks bleak now but we still have 5 days before we start January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 brick has turned into a good poster this year. Maybe it's because I turned 40 in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Nate Johnson from WRAL mentioned on facebook that the models and ensembles are all over the place for next Saturday. He said some show 70 while others have 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 it is a big surprise to me but even if we just get a couple of weeks in February and March I will be ok with winter. You win some and lose some every year. I am actually looking down the road and wondering when we will get a decent negate nao again. Least of our worries at this point. Plus do we even remember what a -NAO looks like? It's been forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Pack how can you say central nc is +3 to +4 for the past six weeks. When I checked Thursday RDU was only + .9 for Dec and I beleive ended NOV like -4 or -5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Guess packs thinking first 6 weeks of met winter, which ends Jan 10 this Rdu will be +3 to +4 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 The 12z GEFS was below climo again, look at the mean temps for Raleigh after the 7th... The cold that never comes...this run was on 12/21 Goes to show how terrible the GEFS is out that far sometimes. So if you're not buying the cold that far out certainly don't by the warmth, although you want to because of how terrible December has been and how we're seeing that SE ridge sneak it's way up time and time again throughout the run, you're down in the dumps, you can't buy that. There's no denying a SE ridge heading into Jan, but there's hope after Jan 5th. Like others have mentioned, we're in a -AO/-NAO right now and it's not helping...it's simply because there's nothing to block...We need to get the cold over here first and what I'm seeing on the models with the PV split on the strat maps (If it's going to happen we'll know by the Jan 1-3) and teleconnections are somewhat hopeful for Jan....AO/NAO headed back neutral to negative by the 4th-8th period on some models (Euro, GFS, GFS Para especially, Candian OP runs, some ensemble runs) bottom line is the models want to bring back the AO and maybe a NAO, sometime before the 10th, which is good to see at least. Keep in mind this is all happening around the first week of Jan, so for people who want to write the whole month off there is a lot going on these first few days of week 1 which makes me unable to do so. Couple that with some of Webber's analogs and Jan could end up fine, especially the second half, but it may get started early, around the 10th, IMO. Keep in mind that's two weeks from now, so plenty of model watching and time for things to change. Check out the blocking index latest forecast...notice the block the first week of Jan....(even though this is based on the CFSv2, I don't think the model is overdoing the Alaskan block, so I trust this image) It looks like mid Nov, around 13th-16th. I'm sure you remember that. It may be wishful thinking, but it's not impossible for this pattern and the models to trend towards a block over the top somewhere around the 10th...including a -EPO/-AO/-NAO look. I'm not saying we'll repeat the look in mid Nov, but it's not impossible come mid Jan. Also I left out the MJO so there's that. Cliff notes: There's still hope for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Pack how can you say central nc is +3 to +4 for the past six weeks. When I checked Thursday RDU was only + .9 for Dec and I beleive ended NOV like -4 or -5.This says +2 through yesterday and we roast the next few days. We will easily finish Dec +3 and probably +4. The first 2 weeks of Jan at best are neutral, I won't be surprised if we are +5 or higher come Jan 15th. If we finish -6 from mid-Jan to end of Feb would be a miracle. Shaping up to be a + DJF temp anomaly. http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/raleigh-nc/27601/december-weather/329823?monyr=12/1/2014&view=table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Hot off the press. Per LC, Jan thaw delayed til ~1/10. Also, Arctic air could return as soon as ~1/19 with extensive cold over the US similar to the current cold dominating late Jan., much of Feb., and possibly March. I guess the groundhogs will see their shadows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Just checked Raleigh nws and RDU is +1 so far as of today for Dec. Anyway I get t he point your making. Don't agree it will even end up +2 for Dec at RDU thanks to clouds and rain followed by below normal midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 As far as the "we get all our big storms in February/March" talking point, NWS RAH has some data showing monthly totals, so I thought I'd take a look using the 1981-2010 normals for the two cities it lists (those being Greensboro - GSO and Raleigh - RDU). Greensboro: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/climate/data/GSO_monthlysnowfall.pdf Month: Total (Percent of Total Snowfall) January: 3.4" (43%) February: 2.4" (31%)March: 0.9" (12%) April: 0.1" (1%) --- November: 0.1" (1%) December: 0.8" (10%) Total: 7.7" (I think the actual is 7.9" and this is probably a little off due to rounding errors) Clearly, January is the best climo month by far, though February isn't bad, either. You'll notice that the average of 7.9" is lower than we usually see since the 1981-2010 average was lower than the old 1971-2000 average (the mid-2000s were awful for snow). The long-run average is likely an inch or so higher and hopefully we'll be returning to a snowier regime over the coming years. Next up, Raleigh: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/climate/data/RDU_monthlysnowfall.pdf January: 2.9" (49%) February: 1.7" (29%) March: 0.5" (8.5%) April: 0.1" (1.5%) --- November: 0.1" (1.5%) December: 0.6" (10%) Total: 5.9" Even more so for Raleigh, January is the prime climo month. February is still decent, but January is king. Thus, we can see that, at least in central NC, we do not want to waste January if we can help it. February is a decent month, too, and March and December are serviceable (as last year showed), but January is month #1. It might be the case that we get our biggest storms in February and January is higher because of more dink-and-dunk storms, but I'm not so sure this is the case, either. The biggest storms on record at GSO since 2000 are: January 2, 2002 January 25, 2000 February 12, 2014 January 29, 2010 Three of the four are in January. February 26, 2004 was huge south of here, but GSO only recorded 6", IIRC. March 2, 2009 also had 5.7". December 25, 2010 was also a big storm, and I think it would come in around #5 or so. Now, clearly, I have faith that February and March can and do deliver, but I also am certainly not willing to throw away prime climo time in January if I can help it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Just checked Raleigh nws and RDU is +1 so far as of today for Dec. Anyway I get t he point your making. Don't agree it will even end up +2 for Dec at RDU thanks to clouds and rain followed by below normal midweek.[/quoteJust checked Raleigh nws and RDU is +1 so far as of today for Dec. Anyway I get t he point your making. Don't agree it will even end up +2 for Dec at RDU thanks to clouds and rain followed by below normal midweek. Want to bet...over/under on +3 by Jan 15th. +3 is a given by Jan 1. http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php?action=update_daterange&daterange=Month http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs-ens®ion=eus&pkg=T2ma5d&runtime=2014122718&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=149 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs-ens®ion=eus&pkg=T2ma5d&runtime=2014122718&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=237 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Sure why not. Only with Raleigh NWS. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Tony, that's just a funny post all the way around man! Ahh, my kind sir, you serve them up so well And I knew a connoisseur such as your fine self would be well aware of Fluke Man! A kin, no doubt to the ice worm. And even as we speak I have rain falling again. It's only a matter time before the cold air swoops in to turn the drops to ice...as long as it keep raining every few days. I sir have been eating my yoghurt, and fish oil...and regularity is my middle name! I sir, see the shining hill, and the winter storm clouds forming above it! I had me a vision...of a normal winter...with abbynormal storms..... Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Sure why not. Only with Raleigh NWS. Good luck! What link do you use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 So now the consensus seems to be mid-Jan before something happens. Seems that on or about 12/15 everyone believed it was going to be around New Year; on 12/10, it was the Christmas storm that was going to flip everything. Now, DT's Facebook offers this, which adds more water to the embers: So folks, if it's February, so it is (much to our collective chagrin). But if that's the case, there's still hope: Feb 1899.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 You two will join the dark side soon enough :-) You have to admit that you were not expecting the first 6 weeks of winter for central NC to be +3 to +4F, with a solid +AO/NAO, and the entire east coast well below average for snow? Let's face it DJF isn't going to average a negative temp anomaly, which I know isn't important but nobody was expecting that. To be honest I will be more surprised if we finish at climo for snow. I don't think we will get skunked. It's not +3 to +4 above normal in NC, if anything it's closer to +1, but unlike you I have more experience doing this & certainly know better than to succumb to this baseless grumbling over winter, especially before February is finished. You've already given up on winter & we just passed Christmas w/ 90% (snowfall that is) left in front of us, just last that sink in for a moment. Don't be a weenie... As far as the "we get all our big storms in February/March" talking point, NWS RAH has some data showing monthly totals, so I thought I'd take a look using the 1981-2010 normals for the two cities it lists (those being Greensboro - GSO and Raleigh - RDU). Greensboro: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/climate/data/GSO_monthlysnowfall.pdf Month: Total (Percent of Total Snowfall) January: 3.4" (43%) February: 2.4" (31%) March: 0.9" (12%) April: 0.1" (1%) --- November: 0.1" (1%) December: 0.8" (10%) Total: 7.7" (I think the actual is 7.9" and this is probably a little off due to rounding errors) Clearly, January is the best climo month by far, though February isn't bad, either. You'll notice that the average of 7.9" is lower than we usually see since the 1981-2010 average was lower than the old 1971-2000 average (the mid-2000s were awful for snow). The long-run average is likely an inch or so higher and hopefully we'll be returning to a snowier regime over the coming years. Next up, Raleigh: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/climate/data/RDU_monthlysnowfall.pdf January: 2.9" (49%) February: 1.7" (29%) March: 0.5" (8.5%) April: 0.1" (1.5%) --- November: 0.1" (1.5%) December: 0.6" (10%) Total: 5.9" Even more so for Raleigh, January is the prime climo month. February is still decent, but January is king. Thus, we can see that, at least in central NC, we do not want to waste January if we can help it. February is a decent month, too, and March and December are serviceable (as last year showed), but January is month #1. It might be the case that we get our biggest storms in February and January is higher because of more dink-and-dunk storms, but I'm not so sure this is the case, either. The biggest storms on record at GSO since 2000 are: January 2, 2002 January 25, 2000 February 12, 2014 January 29, 2010 Three of the four are in January. February 26, 2004 was huge south of here, but GSO only recorded 6", IIRC. March 2, 2009 also had 5.7". December 25, 2010 was also a big storm, and I think it would come in around #5 or so. Now, clearly, I have faith that February and March can and do deliver, but I also am certainly not willing to throw away prime climo time in January if I can help it. It's not a talking point, in +ENSO years since 1950, Raleigh's snowfall average is higher in February than January... February is also the biggest month for NESIS snowstorms, even though El Nino Januarys are comfortably in second. El Nino Februarys are also generally colder vs averages compared to January & I've posted graphics to back that up time & time again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 On the phone so can't post link. Go to Raleigh NWS and hit climate tab to the right of afd tab. If I lose I'll send Brick over to take you out for dinner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Webber, I wasn't aware you were only talking about when in a +ENSO state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 So now the consensus seems to be mid-Jan before something happens. Seems that on or about 12/15 everyone believed it was going to be around New Year; on 12/10, it was the Christmas storm that was going to flip everything. Now, DT's Facebook offers this, which adds more water to the embers: americanwxALERTDEC27.jpg So folks, if it's February, so it is (much to our collective chagrin). But if that's the case, there's still hope: Feb 1899.pdf Lol so DTs has already said his winter outlook is in big trouble and now we are to believe this chart? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Lol so DTs has already said his winter outlook is in big trouble and now we are to believe this chart? Lol just sayin' and offering a candle in a coal mine shaft with the pdf .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Webber, I wasn't aware you were only talking about when in a +ENSO state. Well, yes... here's that post again. Climatologically, the midpoint of winter in terms of snowfall at RDU is in the last week of January, however, in +ENSO events, this midpoint gets shoved back into the 1st week of February, & we're still over a month away from even hitting halfway, yet many have already thrown in the towel, it's mind boggling.. "Looking at all +ENSO Neutral/El Nino events since 1950 & comparing against climatology for the same period (1950-2014), it's worth noting that in warm ENSO events (used for the purpose of expanding the sample size & out of uncertainty of the current event to fulfill CPC's ONI El Nino definition), only February, March, & April exceed climatology. Unlike the 1950-2014 climatology where January is the most favored month for snow, in +ENSO years, February contributes the largest fraction of RDU's seasonal snowfall..." We've seen crazier things happen though in El Ninos, for areas well to southeast of the Triad, the first significant snow in the 1982-83 EN winter didn't show up until late March, & w/ more snow in mid April, the seasonal snowfall in Raleigh was a little less than 1 standard deviation above normal, even w/o any snow in December & January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Webber, I wasn't really even responding to your post at all when I made that post. It was just an observation because I was curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Lol so DTs has already said his winter outlook is in big trouble and now we are to believe this chart? Lol He set himself up for failure in December & don't think he could have possibly busted much harder than this... Predicting below normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest & warmer temps in the southeastern US w/ this kind of +ENSO/PDO base state is not a good idea & unless you presented extremely convincing evidence clearly showing otherwise, no one in their right mind should forecast that in this sort of ENSO & strong +PDO combo, if anything his forecast was the exact opposite of what one would anticipate in a set-up... In all the El Ninos since 1950, only 1951 & 1972 fit this distribution w/ 1951 (the closest match to his forecast) being coupled w/ a mean -PDO in the antecedent SON tri-monthly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Doing my climo work today...unless the morning of 12/31 ruins it (which it might) ATL Should see their fewest ever 32 or lower min temps ever in December at a measly two...1984 had 3 and 2012 had 5. My guess is some other warmer Decembers would have had 2 or 3 but the urbanization of the area to the N and NW in the last 20 years has resulted in the airport at a slightly higher elevation no longer radiating as well on nights with light N-NW flow as they used to. Goose, I assume you're not going back to the 1930's. However, if you were to do so, Dec. of 1931 also had only two 32 or lower: both at 31. I just found there were only two in 12/1923 with lowest of 29, in 12/1900 with lowest of 30, and in 1889 with lowest of 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 0z GEFS continues to paint a dismal image of positive AO and NAO. NAO is actually crazy positive at the end of the run. At least the polar vortex is in North America now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Fwiw (probably not too much since it is just an op. run well into the 6-10): 0Z Euro has the most +PNA looking run I can remember in awhile late in 6-10. Again, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Fwiw (probably not too much since it is just an op. run well into the 6-10): 0Z Euro has the most +PNA looking run I can remember in awhile late in 6-10. Again, fwiw. Yep..... The SE ridge would stand no shot in that setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Yep..... The SE ridge would stand no shot in that setup Agreed, IF this were reflecting reality, of course. We've been teased before and even more last Tuesday at 12Z with the fantastic/very cold GFS AND Euro that were reversed a good bit already by 0Z Wed. So, I'm taking with a huge grain as of now so as to avoid another disappointment. Of course, that doesn't mean I'm not glad to see a run like this. which at least gives a little hope for the return of the desperately needed +PNA. The realist in me (based on old wx maps) says that that 1056 mb high over Nebraska at hour 234 wouldn't verify nearly that strong, especially since the Euro sometimes keeps them too strong too far down from Canada. *Edited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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