Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II

[GaWx]

Somebody's falling down on the job here, because the GFS is looking absolutely !!!!!!!! in the LR. Come on, you guys!

CR,

I already said it looks great for outdoor activities incl walking. I'm sincerely fine with the midwinter warm interludes of SE winters while we await the return of cold. I'd hate living up north...seriously!

I could live up north if I so chose.

[packbacker]

Somebody's falling down on the job here, because the GFS is looking absolutely !!!!!!!! in the LR. Come on, you guys!

Cold/snow is dead to me, bring on pac zonal. Unless CFS shows it I ain't buying.

J/K let's see if the ENS agree.

[FallsLake]

The back to backs are always tough. RDU is about 75% of climo over those same 5 years, haven't had a feast year since 04. I thought this year would break that awful record streak. Still holding out weenie hope, atleast til mid-Jan. If it's evident blocking isn't going to develop by mid Jan we will be in trouble.

If your just looking for climo for RDU one storm could do that. If this ends as a warm winter, we will still get a few chances at winter event. Usually in warm winters, there is a cold period in the hart of winter. The opposite of the mid winter thaw. Then I would say we'll have some chances near the end of winter (late February - early March) as the overall pattern waves shorten allowing for more cold intrusions into the SE; like November. ***So I'm thinking 1st chance late January - early February, 2nd chance late February - early March, then 3rd chance maybe mid March (...but we know how that usually works out). Maybe we end with a cold November and cold March. 

 

Just my gut feelings...but hell it's as good as any other official forecast.

[FallsLake]

Cold/snow is dead to me, bring on pac zonal. Unless CFS shows it I ain't buying.

J/K let's see if the ENS agree.

I agree, anything past 8 to 10 days on a model is crap (cold or warm). Of course I like to see a cold look but at this point I'm very suspicious.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

If your just looking for climo for RDU one storm could do that. If this ends as a warm winter, we will still get a few chances at winter event. Usually in warm winters, there is a cold period in the hart of winter. The opposite of the mid winter thaw. Then I would say we'll have some chances near the end of winter (late February - early March) as the overall pattern waves shorten allowing for more cold intrusions into the SE; like November. ***So I'm thinking 1st chance late January - early February, 2nd chance late February - early March, then 3rd chance maybe mid March (...but we know how that usually works out). Maybe we end with a cold November and cold March.

Just my gut feelings...but hell it's as good as any other official forecast.

mid March lol. The last time I remember us having any decent snow in mid March was almost 22 years ago. Is our 4th chance going to be in late April ?

[GaWx]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/bomm.shtml

Fwiw, BOMM (Aust.) takes the MJO to phase 7 1/15.

[Webberweather53]

Let's hope we don't see the flip from those winters, I thinks we 5" total from all of those winters :-)

Agreee on the blocking, you guys will probably do fine with the SE ridge, you guys seem to always do fine, but we will need something to beat down the ridge.

Just curious, what are you guys climo wise since 09/10? 150%?

 

 

Yes, those weren't great winters, but RDU picked up 4.7 inches of snow in the winter of 1951-52 alone, .9 inches in 2004-05 (much higher seasonal totals were ground further north & east in Wake County & about an inch & half in 2006-07...

Of those winters only a trace of snow was observed in Dec 2004-05, ~25% of the combined seasonal snow came in January, ~60% in February, & ~20% in March... Looking at all +ENSO Neutral/El Nino events since 1950 & comparing against climatology for the same period (1950-2014), it's worth noting that in warm ENSO events (used for the purpose of expanding the sample size & out of uncertainty of the current event to fulfill CPC's ONI El Nino definition), only February, March, & April exceed climatology. Unlike the 1950-2014 climatology where January is the most favored month for snow, in +ENSO years, February contributes the largest fraction of RDU's seasonal snowfall...

[Webberweather53]

Yes, those weren't great winters, but RDU picked up 4.7 inches of snow in the winter of 1951-52 alone, .9 inches in 2004-05 (much higher seasonal totals were ground further north & east in Wake County & about an inch & half in 2006-07...

Of those winters only a trace of snow was observed in Dec 2004-05, ~25% of the combined seasonal snow came in January, ~60% in February, & ~20% in March... Looking at all +ENSO Neutral/El Nino events since 1950 & comparing against climatology for the same period (1950-2014), it's worth noting that in warm ENSO events (used for the purpose of expanding the sample size & out of uncertainty of the current event to fulfill CPC's ONI El Nino definition), only February, March, & April exceed climatology. Unlike the 1950-2014 climatology where January is the most favored month for snow, in +ENSO years, February contributes the largest fraction of RDU's seasonal snowfall...

 

 

Additionally, you should note in terms of snowfall that even through the end of December, according to climatology, we still have ~85-90% of the winter left in RDU, there's absolutely no viable reasoning to get upset about December which was, as expected, relatively mild & boring...

[GaWx]

Webber, do you follow the MJO? If so, opinion?

[packbacker]

Per JB video (check it out for the CFS indices ), today 's CFS has a solid

-AO dominating 1/5+ and a +PNA 1/10+. Is this to be believed? If we get both of these, how could the SE stay mild??

 

Yeah, just looking at the charts he put up, PNA goes positive in mid-Jan and AO goes negative end of next week.   The CFS does try and cool the east Jan 20th and on.  Things look very bleak the next 3 weeks, that is evident on all the modeling, even the GEFS goes zonal day 12+.  Good news is I think by Dec 15-20th we will have atleast some idea how the rest of the winter is going to unfold, so just another 3 weeks of misery and then we either get ready for some cold/snowy times or we get ready with the pre-emergent.

[packbacker]

Additionally, you should note in terms of snowfall that even through the end of December, according to climatology, we still have ~85-90% of the winter left in RDU, there's absolutely no viable reasoning to get upset about December which was, as expected, relatively mild & boring...

 

Thanks Webber....but you have to admit nobody would have guessed the solidly + AO/NAO at this point and with no signs of that relenting.  Like you said above, the precedence for +AO Dec/Jan which then turns into snowy Feb's are not great.  

[Brick Tamland]

I just looked at both the 0z and 6z and both show cold in the area or nearby for most of the run. With an active southern stream and high pressure sliding across the north, we'll have a chance or two, if that pattern verifies.

Matthew East made a post on Facebook today about this. He said the cold is close and have to keep an eye on it.

[Brick Tamland]

Delayed but not denied is going to be our battle cry this winter.

[dsaur]

I've been thinking mid Jan since the first week or so in Dec. We will eventually have a winter and some storms to track, but I'm fairly confident there won't be much interest in the next couple of weeks, outside of a fluke or something. That will be about 1/2 of winter right down the crapper. Very unfortunate.

Fluke man on the x files came out of the crapper..or at least where the crapper empties, and it was a surprise.  Don't be so quick to empty out the bowels of fun upcoming.  3 days out is about all you can rely on model wise to make you feel regular, so I still think a New Years Eve or around  surprise can release the pent up frustrations, lol.  Can't ever discount all this rain running underneath, and more in the next day or so.  I had rain for 3 or 4 days, then cold enough for two...if either of the two had sped up or slowed down there wouldn't be this pervasive irregular feeling going on.  We had it a lot better back in the old days when we didn't have models to tell us how to think.  We just had to wait and see, and it was always fun to go sledding on the weatherman's 3 day projection of partly cloudy and cool, lol.  T

[Isopycnic]

Delayed but not denied is going to be our battle cry this winter.

Yeah... 33 and rain.

[WidreMann]

Yeah... 33 and rain.

At this point, we'll be lucky to even see much in the way of 33 and rain.

[Met1985]

Euro is pretty ugly in the SE in the mid to long ranges. Man the SE ridge is impressive for this time of the year. Reminds me of 2011/2012.

[CaryWx]

At this point, we'll be lucky to even see much in the way of 33 and rain.

Works for me

[Brick Tamland]

Yeah... 33 and rain.

They must call you Mr Brightside.

[Webberweather53]

Webber, do you follow the MJO? If so, opinion? (in 1,000 words or less please so I can follow you . )

 

 

Oh yes, I follow the MJO on a daily basis, & it's one of my favorite telconnections... The MJO is still having to deal w/ an anomalous upper level convergence zone in the western equatorial Pacific just west of the international dateline that's being induced by the warm Indian Ocean, but we will see progression into the Pacific as we get into early January. It's worth mentioning that even though MJO phases 6-8 tend to precede & induce high latitude blocking, because of their modulation of mid-latitude Rossby Wave Trains & the Aleutian Low, Pacific MJO bursts in January are usually more efficient at leading to a -AO state vs December. This is directly related to a more favorable climatological state (i.e. increased maturity & amplitude) of the polar vortex, jet stream, wave activity flux etc. Stronger/more extensive Jet Stream in January= stronger planetary & mid-latitude Rossby Waves, stronger waves= larger amounts of heat & momentum being imparted & upwelled into the polar stratosphere which favors a greater potential for sudden stratospheric warming events, polar vortex disruption (splits & displacements) & a warmer polar stratosphere in January (although the greater maturity of the polar vortex means as a whole temperatures within the confines of the Polar night jet are cooler)...

 

The increased overall amplitude of the MJO in January vs December also plays a role onto the effects of Pacific MJO events & succeeding intraseasonal -AO regimes...

 

Notice the warmer polar stratosphere temps, more extensive Pacific jet (hence a stronger Aleutian Low) in January

 

The 10mb 45-75N heat flux after setting records in late November has remained above normal, & despite the fact we're not seeing quite the amount of heat flux as observed in 2009-10 for example, even from a purely visual standpoint, the heat flux this year since the start of November is averaging within the top 25% since the beginning of the satellite era... This certainly favors a significant -AO burst to manifest itself at some point in the winter

 

 

 

Thus, the end result when looking @ the MJO 500mb for December & January is stronger signals for high latitude blocking in January when the MJO enters the Pacific (phases 6-8), thus w/ further support from model guidance for PV disruption within the next few weeks, I do anticipate at least a punctuated dip in the AO to occur, but its intensity & longevity remain uncertain...

 

Thanks Webber....but you have to admit nobody would have guessed the solidly + AO/NAO at this point and with no signs of that relenting.  Like you said above, the precedence for +AO Dec/Jan which then turns into snowy Feb's are not great.  

 

We're not even close to the 50th percentile (climatological halfway point) for snowfall in RDU, that doesn't come until about the 1st week of February, a solid 4-5 weeks from now. Winter hasn't really started yet...

[superjames1992]

They must call you Mr Brightside.

That's a good song!

[GaWx]

Thanks, Webber, I think I got it. Come on, phase 6! Mods are suggesting that will start near 1/8-10. Also, look at those beautiful +PNA phase 7/8 500 mb maps for Jan! I know they're just mean

maps, but that may very well be the ticket. 1/15 or bust !

[mackerel_sky]

They must call you Mr Brightside.

They call me Mr Big

[max100]

Thanks GaWx! Although, proposedly not watching, tiring hearing him hyping this winter.

Totally agree, he has really been caught with his pants down so far this early winter., lol.

[franklin NCwx]

In the end people only care about snowfall.

[nchighcountrywx]

http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/realtime-mjo/

[GaWx]

In the end people only care about snowfall.

 

1) I agree for many here. However, I also care about all aspects including exciting ups and downs of temp.'s as well as IP/ZR and even cold rains. Nearly half of ATL major winter storms have been ZR's.

 

2) Folks,

  I recommend you pay attention to the phase 6-8 Jan maps just posted by Webber. Yes, there have been a number of exceptions to the rules for MJO phases (cold vs. warm in the SE) as I've noted. However, fwiw, these maps at least suggest a rather strong signal for -AO/-NAO for 6-8 (ETA for 6 ~1/9) and a solid +PNA (note the western ridging/E troughing)/Aleutian low for 7-8 (ETA for 7, if we make it there, ~1/15), which we desperately need:

 

 

Webber, do you know the ~number of days covered by each of these Jan phases in these maps? What years, etc.? Obviously, the more, the more credible. 

[max100]

In the end people only care about snowfall.

Honestly, I just want some real cold, then the snow will follow.

[GaWx]

New project: I've just decided to calc. the mean anomaly for KATL for each of phases 6-8 in Jan 1975-2014. Wish me luck lol. See you in a couple of hours.

[packbacker]

Euro is pretty ugly in the SE in the mid to long ranges. Man the SE ridge is impressive for this time of the year. Reminds me of 2011/2012.

Yep, I think a lot of people think it will magically disappear in Feb. Only way we get rid of it this winter is a -AO and a -NAO. We have had plenty of warm winters where the SE ridge was our nemesis.