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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II

JoshM

By JoshM,
in Southeastern States

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

The Q I have is this: does the GEFS AO prediction already assume a very strong SSW is likely about to take place! It may very well may for all we know. Opinions? Shouldn't models know about SSW's and take them into account?

That's a good question that I thought about this morning when looking at the AO charts. I would think so, but I truly don't know.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

The Q I have is this: does the GEFS AO prediction already assume a very strong SSW is likely about to take place! It may very well may for all we know. Opinions? Shouldn't models know about SSW's and take them into account?

You would think the models would have fairly abrupt changes in the coming days if this warming is to have any effect. Surely the models take into account the conditions as they relate to warming events??

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

You would think the models would have fairly abrupt changes in the coming days if this warming is to have any effect. Surely the models take into account the conditions as they relate to warming events??

My understanding is that warmings take time to propagate down to noticeable changes in the pattern. This also isn't a strong one.
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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

My understanding is that warmings take time to propagate down to noticeable changes in the pattern. This also isn't a strong one.

 

Widre,

 Why do you say it isn't strong? The following link's prog's bottom graph has a 37C warming at 5 mb (from ~-23 to ~+14) (covering 60 to 90N) between ~12/26 and 12/31? How is that not strong? I don't recall ever seeing any warming going back to at least 1979 above 40C. Of course, it is still just a prog.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2014/post-882-0-44670900-1419776040.gif

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GaWx

GaWx

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Posted

My post is just at 10mb, I personally wouldn't consider it a "strong" since it does re-organize so quickly but thats my novice opinion. I don't know what the Euro will do day 10+ from today's run unless WSI tweets it out.

 

It is stronger at 5 mb (~37C warming..see bottom graph's line that starts off blue) than at 10 mb (~28 C warming..see 3rd graph's line that starts off pink) per this prog:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2014/post-882-0-44670900-1419776040.gif

 

Also, this is NOW occurring and would be done at 5 mb by ~12/31-1/1.

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GaWx

GaWx

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Lol...hard to believe that there's that much room for interpretation, unless we're talking about a specific event at a specific point in time vs a lengthy process over a time frame.

 

I suggest we give Don a chance to answer my Q to him. Either he uses very different criteria from me or he is not yet aware of what I posted after he posted. I wasn't even aware of this prog til ~ 6 hours ago. Regardless, based on my own criteria that I've been using for several years, this would no doubt be quite strong IF the prog of 37C warming at 5 mb that I've been citing is going to verify well. Regardless, its effects on the troposphere would be very hard to gauge and, therefore, I don't think that is a fair way to classify a SSW. I don't know that can be done objectively, regardless. How on earth can one isolate the effects of a SSW vs what would or would not have occurred, regardless!?

 

Edited several times

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
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I suggest we give Don a chance to answer my Q to him. Either he uses very different criteria from me or he is not yet aware of what I posted after he posted. I wasn't even aware of this prog til ~ 6 hours ago. Regardless, based on my own criteria that I've been using for several years, this would no doubt be quite strong IF the prog of 37C warming at 5 mb that I've been citing is going to verify well. Regardless, its effects on the troposphere would be very hard to gauge and, therefore, I don't think that is a fair way to classify a SSW.

Edited

Yeah I'm anxious to see what he says.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

I suggest we give Don a chance to answer my Q to him. Either he uses very different criteria from me or he is not yet aware of what I posted after he posted. I wasn't even aware of this prog til ~ 6 hours ago. Regardless, based on my own criteria that I've been using for several years, this would no doubt be quite strong IF the prog of 37C warming at 5 mb that I've been citing is going to verify well. Regardless, its effects on the troposphere would be very hard to gauge and, therefore, I don't think that is a fair way to classify a SSW. I don't know that can be done objectively, regardless. How on earth can one isolate the effects of a SSW vs what would or would not have occurred, regardless!?

Edited several times

Would be interesting to know of all the warnings that hit 25+ C at 10 mb and 35+ C at 5 mb, what percentage didn't propagate down?

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GaWx

GaWx

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Posted

Would be interesting to know of all the warnings that hit 25+ C at 10 mb and 35+ C at 5 mb, what percentage didn't propagate down?

 

Using this link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/

 

Of the ones that hit an anomaly of at least +28 C at some strat level (11 since 1979), I found 7 made it down to 300 mb (including 1/1985), 2 to 200 mb, and 2 to 100 mb. So, they all at least propogated down to 100 mb. It typically took 10 days to 3 weeks to get to propogate as far down as it was to go though it exceeded a month once or more.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

Using this link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/

Of the ones that hit an anomaly of at least +28 C at some strat level (11 since 1979), I found 7 made it down to 300 mb (including 1/1985), 2 to 200 mb, and 2 to 100 mb. So, they all at least propogated down to 100 mb. It typically took 10 days to 3 weeks to get to propogate as far down as it was to go though it exceeded a month once or more.

Thanks Larry. Kudos to you for catching this warming that appears to be on the doorstep. I think in this rather boring period of late, some people have been caught asleep at the wheel on this one.

For those wondering whether this is a weak event or a strong event, look no further than what Joe D'Aleo thinks............

"Look at the incredible warming at 10mb about 30C the next 10 days. This should work down into the troposphere and flip the AO."

This quote was from his blog post earlier this morning.

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GaWx

GaWx

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Posted

Thanks Larry. Kudos to you for catching this warming that appears to be on the doorstep. I think in this rather boring period of late, some people have been caught asleep at the wheel on this one.

For those wondering whether this is a weak event or a strong event, look no further than what Joe D'Aleo thinks............

"Look at the incredible warming at 10mb about 30C the next 10 days. This should work down into the troposphere and flip the AO."

This quote was from his blog post earlier this morning.

 

Thanks. The AO guru, himself, Judah Cohen, may appear to still be asleep though one has to believe that he's following these late developments. Note that the progged warming at 5 mb is even more impressive: ~37C.

 

Hot off the press from Monsieur Sutherland as a reply to me: he's starting to bend

 

"To be sure, the 12/27 run is more impressive than the 12/26 one I had viewed. Still, I'd be more comfortable if a larger section of the 60N-90N region from 30 hPa or higher had readings in the vicinity of -30°C or above."

 

"The new charts have increased the prospects of a SSW event, but let's see if the data holds up and there is, in fact, a large-scale warming and a switch in the zonal wind fluxes."

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Tony,

 So, are you talking about using these alternative stations to see how I do with my -3 F DJF prediction?

Yes, sir.  You've already said Dec probably busts warm.  My contention, if you are looking toward an analog year of 39/40, is that doing the climo based on data from the Exp Sta. would be closer to oranges to oranges than comparing 39/40 at the airport  to today at the airport.  Even with warmer highs potentially, I think the colder nights will average cooler down here overall, than Atl. airport did.  And comparing the Exp Sta to the airport in the late 30's would be more accurate for a control subject, than comparing temps at todays airport to the same patch of ground in the 30's.  It's either that or find accurate readings for a spot in each cardinal direction, outside the perimeter, on the plateau, away from the foothills, with somewhat equal altitude, and average them.   And....good luck with that, lol.  T

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