40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Looks to crack through Michigan, while hopefully switching the pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Not much snow left to lose, so let it rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Complete weenie but it's also a serious question from a learning perspective. I thought storms cutting that far west often end up being a lot snowier than modeled because of CAD and secondary formation. Is that bogus? Or is there something inherent in this setup that doesn't allow for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Complete weenie but it's also a serious question from a learning perspective. I thought storms cutting that far west often end up being a lot snowier than modeled because of CAD and secondary formation. Is that bogus? Or is there something inherent in this setup that doesn't allow for that? no Arctic air in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The arctic jet gets involved with this Grinch storm, the problem is its been modeled consistently as being a Great Lakes superstorm of magnitude. Feet of snow type of storm system, mega QPF output with GOM origins, almost a triple phase superbomb, the GGEM wants to bring this up the eastern US coastline as a bomb over New England. With a positive PNA still in phase I suspect this will come east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The arctic jet gets involved with this Grinch storm, the problem is its been modeled consistently as being a Great Lakes superstorm of magnitude. Feet of snow type of storm system, mega QPF output with GOM origins, almost a triple phase superbomb, the GGEM wants to bring this up the eastern US coastline as a bomb over New England. With a positive PNA still in phase I suspect this will come east as well. http://www.wavlist.com/soundfx/019/bath-flush1.wav Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I would take the winds and rain over snow at this point still, just because it looks like this storm is locked in place now. Especially with wind gusts near 85 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Rudolph will be needed in NNE with the massive snow melting fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 85 knot winds at the top of the low level inversion lends to expect winds gusting past 70mph on Christmas Eve afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Mid level wind field between 700mb and 500mb is up to 90 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 85 knot winds at the top of the low level inversion lends to expect winds gusting past 70mph on Christmas Eve afternoon. Christmas eve 1994, 72 mph gust, no power that Christmas morning with 3 kids, yea no thanks. the inversion is strong so we probably have 35-45 meh winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Christmas eve 1994, 72 mph gust, no power that Christmas morning with 3 kids, yea no thanks. the inversion is strong so we probably have 35-45 meh winds Its weaker than the last previous three events, its only a change of around 2.5C in the inversion itself and between 970mb and 950mb. The wind at the top of the inversion layer is around 85 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Its weaker than the last previous three events, its only a change of around 2.5C in the inversion itself and between 970mb and 950mb. The wind at the top of the inversion layer is around 85 knots. enjoy James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Need a seperate thread for the storm disco. A very noticeable east trend the last 36 hours from over Chi then DET and now Near NYC. Still a Rainer to the Canaduam border but further east track may deliver a flip to snow enough to whiten things up a bit for Xmas morning. Winds actuallysy be stronger than initially thought since the east trend plays helps eliminate the inversion somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 This the third thread on the storm....I think we're good lol. Most popular rainer in board history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 i can't even find a gfs ensemble member that shows snow on the backside for most in this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Why would anyone be using the GFS for this.. Or really anything? Ever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 DT calling it a triple phaser over the Lakes..He has a great write up on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 It looks to be the wound up pattern changer after all followed by one more messy system before we settle into deep winter. OT but 6Z/19 gfs says happy new year...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 So is the East trend/secondary development idea that some GEFS members were showing dead? The board got very quiet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 At least 90% of us won't have any snow cover to lose. For me..that would be catastrophic. This is bad with 60's on Xmas Eve..but not as bad as if we were about lose snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 At least 90% of us won't have any snow cover to lose. For me..that would be catastrophic. This is bad with 60's on Xmas Eve..but not as bad as if we were about lose snow cover. Sicko. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Sicko. What types of winds are you thinking? Maybe 50 in gusts? The closer track seems to have eliminated some of the inversion issues. Also looks like some embedded thunder..so maybe a Wiz low topped fine line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 DT calling it a triple phaser over the Lakes..He has a great write up on it Man....sam,e thing happened in January of 1978, then BOOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 It looks to be the wound up pattern changer after all followed by one more messy system before we settle into deep winter. OT but 6Z/19 gfs says happy new year...lol. Even that hugs a little too closely Congrats, Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Can mets talk wind potential both front side and backside ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Even that hugs a little too closely Congrats, Albany. I didnt want to say it . Obviously its in lala land, but that would be a tough look as is for eastern areas. That would be another MPM Dendrite jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Can mets talk wind potential both front side and backside ? There is potential for wind. That's about all we can say at this point. If the LLJ doesn't focus over SNE, you'll see pretty ordinary winds (see the Euro). If you get the GFS solution and the LLJ does focus over SNE, then you could mix down some 40-45 kt gusts based on Bufkit soundings. Backside is pretty standard CAA type gusty day (i.e. not advisory level). But why would we use the GFS for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Man I know I'm crazy but you guys are certifiable. I saw the 300 hour look and chose the general theme vs fine tuning jacks for 1/1/15...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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