CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Hahaha. You mean watching 2,000ft+ from MRG to Jay to Sugarloaf get dusted in January doesn't make you excited to jump out of bed and check the window, err webcams? Well an extraordinary event is always cool, but I don't get solace in Sugarloaf getting 4' while I rain, put it that way. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Hahaha. You mean watching 2,000ft+ from MRG to Jay to Sugarloaf get dusted in January doesn't make you excited to jump out of bed and check the window, err webcams? That was a real crappy winter. Still the lowest season at the picnic tables (211") in the 10 years I've been here. But although it was low, at least it did snow a little...which made it seem like a relatively good year compared to the rest of New England. only 4 seasons of my climo, oh the horror Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Sugarloaf gets 4' i know the area i frequent got buried and that is good enough for me if i get squat here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Biggest red flag would be cutoff of STJ in that LR depiction. Seems the sudden tendency for a Nino fade could be an issue otherwise game on. Biggest fear all along has been STJ going absent. Cold for sure and that's great.I wonder if the Niño fade is what killed snow in the 1972-3 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I wonder if the Niño fade is what killed snow in the 1972-3 winter. What I remember of that winter is it was warm. And wasn't that a strong niño? I know you're in that winter but I don't think it's comparable. This has surely been a niño esque December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 What I remember of that winter is it was warm. And wasn't that a strong niño? I know you're in that winter but I don't think it's comparable. This has surely been a niño esque December.That winter late December and a few weeks of late January were warm. There was some powerful cold, and some nice storms but they didn't coincide. The sensible weather unfortunately has totally traced that year, starting with the cool washout of a summer, thrugh a cold November, to a blah December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Good news. Storm 3 should cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 OT, but there's a major accident on 84 at Mt. Tolland. 2 hour back-up; highway closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 What I remember of that winter is it was warm. And wasn't that a strong niño? I know you're in that winter but I don't think it's comparable. This has surely been a niño esque December. Yes, the second strongest, east based event to 1997-'98. Not difficult to fathom why it was warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Good news. Storm 3 should cut. Am I right in assuming this is not scarcastic? Help expedite the flip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Am I right in assuming this is not scarcastic? Help expedite the flip? Well I love to see meltdowns so I was hoping it would inspire some. Otherwise, just looks like part of the whole transition. Not sure it means much to the -NAO because it will happen regardless, but it may boost it. Gotta also watch to see if that ridge retros west of AK. The EC is trying to hint that, but at the same time, the PNA may try to rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Well an extraordinary event is always cool, but I don't get solace in Sugarloaf getting 4' while I rain, put it that way. LOL. I know....its fine that some avid winter sports enthusiasts do, which I understand....but I do not think folks should be expected to give a flying one what the mountains get. Even if I did ski...I don't want to have to travel 200 miles to experience winter. The "Charlie Brown window watchers" are no more condemable than the "vicarious vixen" skiers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 In any case, something near NY and then maybe a few days later looks possible. Probably won't have QPF worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Well I love to see meltdowns so I was hoping it would inspire some. Otherwise, just looks like part of the whole transition. Not sure it means much to the -NAO because it will happen regardless, but it may boost it. Gotta also watch to see if that ridge retros west of AK. The EC is trying to hint that, but at the same time, the PNA may try to rise. As far as I'm concerned, cut all of the transition storms because for some reason I doubt that any of them would deliver more than the generic 2-5", followed by rain. Just appropriate them towards the greater cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I know....its fine that some avid winter sports enthusiasts do, which I understand....but I do not think folks should be expected to give a flying one what the mountains get. Even if I did ski...I don't want to have to travel 200 miles to experience winter. The "Charlie Brown window watchers" are no more condemable than the "vicarious vixen" skiers. We know you stay up late not to see the new ECMWF run, but to see the latest snow depths on the summits of MMNV1, MWN, Sugarloaf, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 As far as I'm concerned, cut all of the transition storms because for some reason I doubt that any of them would deliver more than the generic 2-5", followed by rain. Just appropriate them towards the greater cause. To be honest, this last one was pretty iffy anyways. You could tell for days. I still suppose it could offer mix inland and maybe snow up north, but my guess is that it moves west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 We know you stay up late not to see the new ECMWF run, but to see the latest snow depths on the summits of MMNV1, MWN, Sugarloaf, etc. Honestly, I do need to travel to the mountains to experience like 8' of snow....never seen anything more than the 3' I achieved in early Feb 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Honestly, I do need to travel to the mountains to experience like 8' of snow....never seen anything more than the 3' I achieved in early Feb 2011. My hit list includes a huge lake effect event. That's probably tops now after seeing what happened in November. I'd like to hit a Tug Hill week of like 70-100". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 My hit list includes a huge lake effect event. That's probably tops now after seeing what happened in November. I'd like to hit a Tug Hill week of like 70-100". It consumed my soul to not make my way out there for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Lake Tahoe in March 1999...I probably will never top that. You see those pictures of like 25-30 foot snowpacks, but you don't actually really understand them until you see them in person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Hopefully this is the beginning of the end "tomorrow never comes pattern" where things look promising 2 weeks out, but it keeps resetting to be 2 weeks out and never gets closer. Last year ended that way in SNE and so far it has pretty much been that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 In any case, something near NY and then maybe a few days later looks possible. Probably won't have QPF worries. May have some QPF worries on the further N/NW edge, but mid-level tracks look good for banding out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Hopefully this is the beginning of the end "tomorrow never comes pattern" where things look promising 2 weeks out, but it keeps resetting to be 2 weeks out and never gets closer. Last year ended that way in SNE and so far it has pretty much been that way. No it didn't. The great pattern was realized, but just had bad luck with individual shortwaves..,..it happens. As far as this season, all everyone has ever said was that the season may start slowly (Dec). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Hopefully this is the beginning of the end "tomorrow never comes pattern" where things look promising 2 weeks out, but it keeps resetting to be 2 weeks out and never gets closer. Last year ended that way in SNE and so far it has pretty much been that way. I dont think thats what we have seen this year or saw last year either. Models always tend to rush in pattern changes, so yes they may get pushed back a few days or a week or whatever. I think everything is on schedule. The changes are not moving back in time at this point.The change is going to be real I think. What that means for snow, we will have too see Last year was pretty much bad luck. We actually had a pretty good pattern. It was plenty cold pretty much all month, which in march can be tough to do sometimes. Storm after storm just got sent south and never came up into our area. I think a lot of people would roll the dice with a similar pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Everything seems as planned. The ball is already rolling. It doesn't happen immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The one failure was rushing the pattern change. It looked like mid December at one point but it ended up being about 10-14 days too fast. That isn't very abnormal though. But really since about 12/10, it's been that Xmas period where the change would happen and that hasn't gotten pushed back any further. It's going to happen. Also, even though this is repeated about 1,342,906 times annually, pattern change does not equal 18 inches of snow in your backyard the following week. It means we've switched to a regime much more favorable for cold and snow events. Those events may or may not happen right away. So spare the "the pattern didn't change because I'm still looking at bare ground!!11!!1!" posts from these threads. There's probably some posters at accuwx who would love to read you though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 The one failure was rushing the pattern change. It looked like mid December at one point but it ended up being about 10-14 days too fast. That isn't very abnormal though. But really since about 12/10, it's been that Xmas period where the change would happen and that hasn't gotten pushed back any further. It's going to happen. Also, even though this is repeated about 1,342,906 times annually, pattern change does not equal 18 inches of snow in your backyard the following week. It means we've switched to a regime much more favorable for cold and snow events. Those events may or may not happen right away. So spare the "the pattern didn't change because I'm still looking at bare ground!!11!!1!" posts from these threads. There's probably some posters at accuwx who would love to read you though. Yep, I mentioned that yesterday since I could see that coming, but worth repeating. I still expect those posts to come. They always do. It definitely was delayed from how it looked two weeks ago, but I would say over the last 5-7 days it seems to be going as modeled. Next week's storm looked iffy even way back then. I feel like people are only considering it a change once they finally get snow. It does not work like that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 USA snow cover 2014 Area Covered By Snow: 41.7% December 19, 2013 Area Covered By Snow: 40.3% December 19, 2012 Area Covered By Snow: 35.6% December 19, 2011 Area Covered By Snow: 20.9% December 19, 2010 Area Covered By Snow: 52.5% December 19, 2009 Area Covered By Snow: 48.6% December 19, 2008 Area Covered By Snow: 55.0% December 19, 2007 Area Covered By Snow: 46.8% December 19, 2006 Area Covered By Snow: 16.4% December 19, 2005 Area Covered By Snow: 51.8% December 19, 2004 Area Covered By Snow: 14.5% December 19, 2003 Area Covered By Snow: 27.2% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yep, I mentioned that yesterday since I could see that coming, but worth repeating. I still expect those posts to come. They always do. It definitely was delayed from how it looked two weeks ago, but I would say over the last 5-7 days it seems to be going as modeled. Next week's storm looked iffy even way back then. I feel like people are only considering it a change once they finally get snow. It does not work like that . My goal is one moderate event before the new year...which is admittedly going to be tough, but I think there is a window of opportunity, albeit a small one. We see that come to fruition, then an epic season is still very much on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 North East snow cover December 19, 2014 Area Covered By Snow: 77.4% December 19, 2013 Area Covered By Snow: 98.9% December 19, 2012 Area Covered By Snow: 63.2% December 19, 2011 Area Covered By Snow: 36.3% December 19, 2010 Area Covered By Snow: 83.1% December 19, 2009 Area Covered By Snow: 86.5% December 19, 2008 Area Covered By Snow: 91.4% December 19, 2007 Area Covered By Snow: 98.3% December 19, 2006 Area Covered By Snow: 13.7% December 19, 2005 Area Covered By Snow: 97.7% December 19, 2004 Area Covered By Snow: 76.7% December 19, 2003 Area Covered By Snow: 89.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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