ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Of course.. But a 6 week winter sucks man. That's my point. When you urinate away an entire month.. Hoping that 6-8 weeks all hell breaks loose isn't a game I want to playWelcome to El Nino...where you learn that March is often a winter month. Embrace it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Of course.. But a 6 week winter sucks man. That's my point. When you urinate away an entire month.. Hoping that 6-8 weeks all hell breaks loose isn't a game I want to play This Dec sucked, definitely puts a damper on the total winter rating but so much left and we can turn lemons into cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 We have waisted a month in which we average less than March, the one you don't even count. Welcome to El Nino...where you learn that March is often a winter month. Embrace it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 We have waisted a month in which we average less than March, the one you don't even count. I see his point, December snows last, have the holiday feel. March snows are messy in a few hours for the most part. fun to watch but not as appealing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yeah I would guess that those Decembers that stunk weren't looking at much of a pattern change heading into Jan. I can't speak much for the interior, but for me, it doesn't mean much. 2003 except for the Jan cold, sucked until 2/7 LOL. Of those 10 BDL Decembers, I mean how many were really staring down the barrel of a potentially favorably pattern change? On the extreme maybe 5? Sample size FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I see his point, December snows last, have the holiday feel. March snows are messy in a few hours for the most part. fun to watch but not as appealing. December snows always get grinched away, so they don't last, despite the low sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 i'd trade a monster Dec for a monster March in a heartbeat. stats and totals are cool but for overall sensory appeal , a monster Dec is much more desirable. Would enjoy a monster March just would prefer Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 December snows always get grinched away, so they don't last, despite the low sun angle. LOl pure luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 FYI*** NCEP is having major server issues. They are running off a backup server. The 12z NAM is currently only out to hour 42 on SV and the 12z GFS just initialized. The HRRR is not running because of the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 LOl pure luck Well, there is something to be said for the seasonal progression of the mean baroclinic zone. I don't think its a coincidence that relatively surpressed storm tracks are mosre difficult to sustain in December, than later on in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Of those 10 BDL Decembers, I mean how many were really staring down the barrel of a potentially favorably pattern change? On the extreme maybe 5? Sample size FTL. none? 1" or Less in December - Happened 10/93 Winters - Of those winters none had above normal seasonal snowf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Well, there is something to be said for the seasonal progression of the mean baroclinic zone. I don't think its a coincidence that relatively surpressed storm tracks are mosre difficult to sustain in December, than later on in the season. doesn't that same baroclinic zone rise back up in March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 There is a lag in the atmosphere of approximately one month, which is why the coldest climo is around one month after the solstice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 doesn't that same baroclinic zone rise back up in March? There is a lag in the atmosphere of approximately one month, which is why the coldest climo is around one month after the solstice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 This Dec sucked, definitely puts a damper on the total winter rating but so much left and we can turn lemons into cake.Our solice is its been "cold" enough to at least feel somewhat wintry . A torch this month would have caused quite a few folks on the board to prematurely end their lives. And a few lucky souls have gotten lucky on some smaller events and extra hours of freezing drizzle. But Dec has always been my favorite winter month . Maybe it has to do with the holidays. At any rate, at least we appear ready to break out of the doldrums and drop some hammer on em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Depth wise from what I researched when I was sick the last two weeks of Jan through the first two weeks of Feb in SNE are the maxes, while in NNE the middle of Feb to the first week of March is king except for high elevation in which the max goes to middle March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Cut off's and mositure laden bbs ar emore favored in December and March, than the middle of the winter....I'll take my chances with those AFTER we have seen the lagged manifestation of the winter soltice propagate throughout the atmosphere, not before. While we may reap the physical benefits of the solstice during December, I'd argue that we reap the more substantial, lagged atmospheric benefits later. Not to mention ssts on the cp...March is where it's at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Ml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Our solice is its been "cold" enough to at least feel somewhat wintry . A torch this month would have caused quite a few folks on the board to prematurely end their lives. And a few lucky souls have gotten lucky on some smaller events and extra hours of freezing drizzle. But Dec has always been my favorite winter month . Maybe it has to do with the holidays. At any rate, at least we appear ready to break out of the doldrums and drop some hammer on em IDK Nov felt more wintry to me. the one day of snow didn't cut it. You assurdely were an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I see his point, December snows last, have the holiday feel. March snows are messy in a few hours for the most part. fun to watch but not as appealing.Yes this. I've said this many times and I actually think many are in agreement. Nov and Dec snows have a different feel than March. You've got months of winter and chances to go so why not start early and often. March the atmosphere is in spring mode and signs of spring are everywhere from Cadbury cream eggs to spring training, to little league starting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I'm not sure he would really disagree with me...mostly because garbage Decembers don't often have a good storm in the first few days of January. But if you prefaced "Crappy Decembers where we got smoked within 5 days of Jan 1st", then I'm sure you'd be way better off. Less than 3 inches is a pretty low sample as it is...how many have there been since 1950 at BDL? Like 8 or 9? But we'll revisit if BDL actually does get under 3 inches this December. Yeah I agree with you 100% here. If you have a crummy December but get a great storm in very early January it doesn't really matter. 12/31 is just an arbitrary cut-off. The pattern looks really good by 1/1 - I'm not terribly worried about things going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Well, there is something to be said for the seasonal progression of the mean baroclinic zone. I don't think its a coincidence that relatively surpressed storm tracks are mosre difficult to sustain in December, than later on in the season. There is a lag in the atmosphere of approximately one month, which is why the coldest climo is around one month after the solstice. Yep...nailed it. March has a tighter baroclinic zone as the south starts to heat up, but the north remains cold in March and most importantly the ocean is much colder. There's a reason that in March, you have more snow near the coast in our region. I mean, I love the low sun angle in December too...but it's not easy to maintain pack all month. Esp before about 12/20. The timing of the Grinch Storms has been unlucky in recent years (which is why we call them that)...but they happen during the month as a whole fairly frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 none? 1" or Less in December - Happened 10/93 Winters - Of those winters none had above normal seasonal snowf? Exactly. It's interesting for conversation, but statistically it means very little. We could be on the verge of new territory, or it could just follow the same pattern of below normal seasonal snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 doesn't that same baroclinic zone rise back up in March? Somebody call my name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Cut off's and mositure laden bbs ar emore favored in December and March, than the middle of the winter....I'll take my chances with those AFTER we have seen the lagged manifestation of the winter soltice propagate throughout the atmosphere, not before. While we may reap the physical benefits of the solstice during December, I'd argue that we reap the more substantial, lagged atmospheric benefits later. Which is cool Meteorologically but mentally I'd prefer a bigger Dec and I average more in Dec usually November 2.5 December 13.0 January 14.7 February 12.4 March 11.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Exactly. It's interesting for conversation, but statistically it means very little. We could be on the verge of new territory, or it could just follow the same pattern of below normal seasonal snow. Ryan backed off I see, so he made a total troll thread it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Subjectively and emotionally, I agree with Kevin....November and December are the most gratifying time for snowfall, but the fact of the matter is that it is not the most favorable, unless you are moving the N ME, or Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yep...nailed it. March has a tighter baroclinic zone as the south starts to heat up, but the north remains cold in March and most importantly the ocean is much colder. There's a reason that in March, you have more snow near the coast in our region. I mean, I love the low sun angle in December too...but it's not easy to maintain pack all month. Esp before about 12/20. The timing of the Grinch Storms has been unlucky in recent years (which is why we call them that)...but they happen during the month as a whole fairly frequently. ? we average more snow on the CP below ORH in Dec than March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Well many lousy Decembers continued the awful look into January. I mean if 12/26/04 was delayed 5 days and we had the look on the ensembles around Christmas, panic would ensue. Verbatim, prior to 1/22/05, the pattern wasn't good. This time around we still have something possible prior to NY and it appears we have a favorable pattern for some period of time to look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Subjectively and emotionally, I agree with Kevin....November and December are the most gratifying time for snowfall, but the fact of the matter is that it is not the most favorable, unless you are moving the N ME, or Michigan. we average more in Dec than March down here, thats a fact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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