CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 My goal is one moderate event before the new year...which is admittedly going to be tough, but I think there is a window of opportunity, albeit a small one. We see that come to fruition, then an epic season is still very much on the table. A few days ago I mentioned the chance in the interior was greater than 50%. The thinking was something right before NY. We will see. Maybe it was a weenie post, but I felt good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 My goal is one moderate event before the new year...which is admittedly going to be tough, but I think there is a window of opportunity, albeit a small one. We see that come to fruition, then an epic season is still very much on the table. If it happens on 1/2 vs 12/30, I don't see how it matters though I understand from a statistically aesthetic standpoint it probably "feels better" to say we got it in December. From a straight analytical standpoint tho I don't think it matters. I guess what I'm saying is that is there a reason to take a blockbuster season off the table if 8.7" falls on 1/1-1/2 and not 12/30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Good news. Storm 3 should cut.What's up with the SE ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 In all reality though, The pattern once if flips looks to remain active at least as far out as you can see from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 If it happens on 1/2 vs 12/30, I don't see how it matters though I understand from a statistically aesthetic standpoint it probably "feels better" to say we got it in December. From a straight analytical standpoint tho I don't think it matters. I guess what I'm saying is that is there a reason to take a blockbuster season off the table if 8.7" falls on 1/1-1/2 and not 12/30? I get that.....akin to how you rebutted my Jan 2007/anticipated Jan 2015 pattern analogy with the warm first two weeks of Jan 2007. It's a a subjective, temporal issue born of man made calendars. Lets put it this way, give me an even of at least moderate impact my January 5th. I think that is a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 North East snow cover December 19, 2014 Area Covered By Snow: 77.4% December 19, 2013 Area Covered By Snow: 98.9% December 19, 2012 Area Covered By Snow: 63.2% December 19, 2011 Area Covered By Snow: 36.3% December 19, 2010 Area Covered By Snow: 83.1% December 19, 2009 Area Covered By Snow: 86.5% December 19, 2008 Area Covered By Snow: 91.4% December 19, 2007 Area Covered By Snow: 98.3% December 19, 2006 Area Covered By Snow: 13.7% December 19, 2005 Area Covered By Snow: 97.7% December 19, 2004 Area Covered By Snow: 76.7% December 19, 2003 Area Covered By Snow: 89.5 That 77% is hard to believe since there is no snow cover in SNE and points S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 That 77% is hard to believe since there is no snow cover in SNE and points S. thats the whole Northeast, not New England, just parroting what they put out, but there is snow in SNE in Western Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 If it happens on 1/2 vs 12/30, I don't see how it matters though I understand from a statistically aesthetic standpoint it probably "feels better" to say we got it in December. From a straight analytical standpoint tho I don't think it matters. I guess what I'm saying is that is there a reason to take a blockbuster season off the table if 8.7" falls on 1/1-1/2 and not 12/30? Ryan begs to differ and had a long thread on BDL following winters with less than 3 inches of snow in Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Ryan begs to differ and had a long thread on BDL following winters with less than 3 inches of snow in Dec I like partioning seasons employing statistical records like that, too, but I see Will's point that a few days may not be reqally important in the grand scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 That 77% is hard to believe since there is no snow cover in SNE and points S. I had an appointment in Blandford yesterday, there was solid covering once I hit 1200' elevation out that way, there's more snow in the western part of the state than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 I like partioning seasons employing statistical records like that, too, but I see Will's point that a few days may not be reqally important in the grand scheme of things. That's what we were kind of talking about the other day. Obviously it does help having snow in December, but it may not mean much as far as a "good" winter goes. I guess for instance if we waited until mid January to get into a decent pattern vs after Christmas, it probably will mean something. I still wouldn't rule out something before NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 What's up with the SE ridge -EPO's can do that. Cold is centered west which tries to pump up heights. This is when a -NAO would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I like partioning seasons employing statistical records like that, too, but I see Will's point that a few days may not be reqally important in the grand scheme of things. I agree too but stats are stats, but the outlier is always possible and it appears this could be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Ryan begs to differ and had a long thread on BDL following winters with less than 3 inches of snow in Dec I'm not sure he would really disagree with me...mostly because garbage Decembers don't often have a good storm in the first few days of January. But if you prefaced "Crappy Decembers where we got smoked within 5 days of Jan 1st", then I'm sure you'd be way better off. Less than 3 inches is a pretty low sample as it is...how many have there been since 1950 at BDL? Like 8 or 9? But we'll revisit if BDL actually does get under 3 inches this December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Back ended was and is always the case this year, no surprises at all. Looks good going forward, shat winter doesn't start until Sunday anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 But then again from my vantage point on the CP, this happens frequently regarding Decembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I'm not sure he would really disagree with me...mostly because garbage Decembers don't often have a good storm in the first few days of January. But if you prefaced "Crappy Decembers where we got smoked within 5 days of Jan 1st", then I'm sure you'd be way better off. Less than 3 inches is a pretty low sample as it is...how many have there been since 1950 at BDL? Like 8 or 9? But we'll revisit if BDL actually does get under 3 inches this December. Hey it was his thread, I'll dig it up, it was 6 or less, my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 That's what we were kind of talking about the other day. Obviously it does help having snow in December, but it may not mean much as far as a "good" winter goes. I guess for instance if we waited until mid January to get into a decent pattern vs after Christmas, it probably will mean something. I still wouldn't rule out something before NY. I agree, but I'm speaking of upper echelon winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 CTRAIN Partially to rile people up and partially out of curiosity I took a look a look at previous Decembers with less than 6" of snow and less than 1" of snow at BDL. With our luck this is where we're heading.6" or Less in December- Happened 37/93 Winters- Of those winters 7/37 had above normal seasonal snowfall- Of the 37 winters the average seasonal snowfall was 32.7"1" or Less in December- Happened 10/93 Winters- Of those winters none had above normal seasonal snowfall- Of those 37 winters the average seasonal snowfall was 24.4"What's remarkable is that the average snowfall for December is 8.4" at BDL so 6" or less for the month at BDL probably says just as much about the overall winter pattern as it does about just having a crappy month.So for all the posts that say, "don't worry... it's only December 10th" when the next 7 days don't look all that great... there actually is something to worry about if we can't get some snow in here over the next 3 weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I violently agree with his last paragraph. Nothing worse or more asinine than those posts that say "don't worry, it's only Dec 19th. " of course you worry anytime you lose an entire winter month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 I violently agree with his last paragraph. Nothing worse or more asinine than those posts that say "don't worry, it's only Dec 19th. " of course you worry anytime you lose an entire winter month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I violently agree with his last paragraph. Nothing worse or more asinine than those posts that say "don't worry, it's only Dec 19th. " of course you worry anytime you lose an entire winter month BDL is a whopping .1 for Dec, be worried be very worried lol. Foolish thread he made, made even better by the most epic 6 week run of my life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 CTRAIN Partially to rile people up and partially out of curiosity I took a look a look at previous Decembers with less than 6" of snow and less than 1" of snow at BDL. With our luck this is where we're heading. It's true, December can often make the season...but obviously that is when you aren't looking at anything else. If you are at 12/29 and a huge storm is forecasted for 1/1...then it doesn't mean anything. Statistical indicators are good when in the right context. It is sort of akin to how all the statistical indicators would have said that BOS was pretty hosed in 2012-2013 when by late January, they were sitting around 6" of snow on the season...but when we put the whole pattern in context with some other similar looking years on where we were headed, then it looked much more plausible that they could go on a big rally (which they ended up doing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Well realistically you've got now 2 short months to have fun.. That's kind of the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Stats say better hope BDL gets at least an inch by Dec 31st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yeah I would guess that those Decembers that stunk weren't looking at much of a pattern change heading into Jan. I can't speak much for the interior, but for me, it doesn't mean much. 2003 except for the Jan cold, sucked until 2/7 LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Well realistically you've got now 2 short months to have fun.. That's kind of the point. We had 6 weeks in 2010-2011. I think you had fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 It's true, December can often make the season...but obviously that is when you aren't looking at anything else. If you are at 12/29 and a huge storm is forecasted for 1/1...then it doesn't mean anything. Statistical indicators are good when in the right context. It is sort of akin to how all the statistical indicators would have said that BOS was pretty hosed in 2012-2013 when by late January, they were sitting around 6" of snow on the season...but when we put the whole pattern in context with some other similar looking years on where we were headed, then it looked much more plausible that they could go on a big rally (which they ended up doing). I 100% agree and said so at the time he posted that, but stats show however if BDL does NOT get 1 inch of snow in DEC it would be the first time ever they had an above normal snow season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 We had 6 weeks in 2010-2011. I think you had fun.Of course.. But a 6 week winter sucks man. That's my point. When you urinate away an entire month.. Hoping that 6-8 weeks all hell breaks loose isn't a game I want to play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Well realistically you've got now 2 short months to have fun.. That's kind of the point. We have waisted a month in which we average less than March, the one you don't even count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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