CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Congrats Euro This is cutterlicious. Another run, another solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Michigan.......ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 This is cutterlicious. Another run, another solution. The delayed cutter... and boy that's one hideously warm solution. Not even the slightest isobar kink east of the Apps. TORCH Personally, I would prefer that solution as I'd like to go skiing in VT on Saturday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 This is cutterlicious. Another run, another solution.I'm just referring to keeping the energy back in the SW longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 0z GFS Para says what cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I'm just referring to keeping the energy back in the SW longer. And then the new GFS is completely different. The comparisons at H5 between the 18z GFS and 00z GFS are pretty obvious with the 00z run being much slower to eject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 And then the new GFS is completely different. The comparisons at H5 between the 18z GFS and 00z GFS are pretty obvious with the 00z run being much slower to eject. To be honest I'm not crazy about the parallel GFS being so wildly different than the operational run so often. I'm surprised to see the differences being so large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Man, the models suck, the weather sucks, this winter blows in the early going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Man, the models suck, the weather sucks, this winter blows in the early going The mere fact we need to discuss mid winter model runs in the banter thread illustrates just how sucky this winter has been so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 To be honest I'm not crazy about the parallel GFS being so wildly different than the operational run so often. I'm surprised to see the differences being so large. I mean I guess 6 days out or whatever in this setup is probably a good pattern for these differences to show, but yeah they are stark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Suppression depression on the orthogonal GFS? lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The mere fact we need to discuss mid winter model runs in the banter thread illustrates just how sucky this winter has been so far. Actually they could be in the January thread, but that's my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Anyone have a good link to the para GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Suppression depression on the orthogonal GFS? lolol I'll take it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I mean I guess 6 days out or whatever in this setup is probably a good pattern for these differences to show, but yeah they are stark. Yup - and it's happening wayyyy too often. Almost every storm that has been modeled in the D3-D7 time frame has been wildly different on op and parallel GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Surpression depession or wrist cutters, those are the only two options this season. CCBs of prozac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Anyone have a good link to the para GFS? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I don't hate the 174 hr parallel GFS look lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Actually the para is a snow event. Way delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The mere fact we need to discuss mid winter model runs in the banter thread illustrates just how sucky this winter has been so far. The solutions are only slightly more meaningful than irrelevant at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Actually the para is a snow event. Way delayed. Giant 1045-1050mb high from Quebec through ND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Giant 1045-1050mb high from Quebec through ND Scooter approved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/ Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 It's definitely borderline irrelevant, I just find the differences interesting. I also think it shows you not to latch on a specific outcome, so maybe it's a learning lesson for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 It's definitely borderline irrelevant, I just find the differences interesting. I also think it shows you not to latch on a specific outcome, so maybe it's a learning lesson for some. Only thing it's useful for is illustrating just how low confidence this setup is. Very low predictability given the modeled setup. I'll check back in on Wednesday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Meh, the 12z runs were a break in continuity. Sniffed of bad data assimilation, actually. Ironically, I thought the flatter appeal made more sense ... possibly en route to just squashing that thing out entirely. Then this run reverts. I wonder if the runs are maintaining too much strength regardless of west or south translation. Look, we are closing off a 594DM circumvallate over the Bahamas. 594! With deeper heights pressing into lower Canada at that same time, that's waaay too much gradient for the 12Z solutions to maintain that impulse integrity. That impulse (vestigial closed low opening up) would seem more likely to dampen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 00z GEM looks a lot like the 12z Euro....delayed ejection of energy with cold high building in to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I threw a spiral ham out of the window at some passing elderly folks at work today. I have done this in the past out of desperation, and it has resulted in plowable snowfall within 17 days 100% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I threw a spiral ham out of the window at some passing elderly folks at work today. I have done this in the past out of desperation, and it has resulted in plowable snowfall within 17 days 100% of the time.Now that is some probabilistic forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Now that is some probabilistic forecasting. With an admittedly small sample size of 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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