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Winter Pattern Discussion 2014-2015 (December/January)


Carvers Gap

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I could be wrong about the outcome, but a pretty good look at 5h at hour 168. 1042h in NA, going to be reinforced by a 1044 just further upstream. Huge wound up storm off the northeast coast (possible future 50/50), and a strong vort coming into the northwest, heading southeast.

The weatern ridge goes to crap like on the GFS

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I am as well the western ridge is not dry good on the 12z euro. It' looks like the ridge on the 12z gfs

I didn't think the ridging was all that bad at 168. You could see a response to the Aleutian Low nicely, but shortly after that it went the way of the GFS.

It is funny (and demoralizing at the same time) to continue to get good looks in the LR only to see them crap out as you get closer in time.

Yet we keep thinking at some point we will get a different result. lol

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Certainly not the best of model trends today.  But I am taking climo to the dance.  February and a weak El Nino should at some point deliver...maybe even in early March.  I have always hated Nino winters because they require so much patience.  They don't nickel and dime you to snow averages.  They either get you with one big storm or blank you.  That is why I hated the 90s snow pattern.  So, I would urge patience w/ the pattern.  I think it entirely possible I get blanked here in Kingsport.  But I know what Ninos are capable of late in the season.  We could just have crap the rest of winter, or you could be shoveling your way out of your house.  The NAO has been awful and we need a good NAO at this latitude.  We got lucky w/ a +PNA that worked last year...most years that by itself gets us the pattern that we are in...which is less than satisfactory.

 

I am banking on three things as we head home this winter 1. The waters have warmed at the dateline and points just westward.  2.  Spring.  At some point Spring will reshuffle this pattern...and that usually means bouts of cold and warm along w/ thunderstorms and snowstorms. 3.  Climo.  Weak Ninos should deliver at some point.  I have learned from Mr. Bob and other Mets that climatology for a given area wins nine times out of ten.  That is why I was insistent that December would be warm. I didn't listen to that wisdom and sunk myself for the January temp contest and went warm in the East.  That is not supported by climo.  Went climo for February, and I should finish in a better position.  Averages don't determine the weather, but they do help make sense out of chaos.

 

Hey, it should get crazy cold for the rest of the month.  So, we have one ingredient available. 

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Certainly not the best of model trends today.  But I am taking climo to the dance.  February and a weak El Nino should at some point deliver...maybe even in early March.  I have always hated Nino winters because they require so much patience.  They don't nickel and dime you to snow averages.  They either get you with one big storm or blank you.  That is why I hated the 90s snow pattern.  So, I would urge patience w/ the pattern.  I think it entirely possible I get blanked here in Kingsport.  But I know what Ninos are capable of late in the season.  We could just have crap the rest of winter, or you could be shoveling your way out of your house.  The NAO has been awful and we need a good NAO at this latitude.  We got lucky w/ a +PNA that worked last year...most years that by itself gets us the pattern that we are in...which is less than satisfactory.

 

I am banking on three things as we head home this winter 1. The waters have warmed at the dateline and points just westward.  2.  Spring.  At some point Spring will reshuffle this pattern...and that usually means bouts of cold and warm along w/ thunderstorms and snowstorms. 3.  Climo.  Weak Ninos should deliver at some point.  I have learned from Mr. Bob and other Mets that climatology for a given area wins nine times out of ten.  That is why I was insistent that December would be warm. I didn't listen to that wisdom and sunk myself for the January temp contest and went warm in the East.  That is not supported by climo.  Went climo for February, and I should finish in a better position.  Averages don't determine the weather, but they do help make sense out of chaos.

 

Hey, it should get crazy cold for the rest of the month.  So, we have one ingredient available. 

 

Ok, so my question is how could the models, the GFS be so different from one day to the next?????

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Certainly not the best of model trends today.  But I am taking climo to the dance.  February and a weak El Nino should at some point deliver...maybe even in early March.  I have always hated Nino winters because they require so much patience.  They don't nickel and dime you to snow averages.  They either get you with one big storm or blank you.  That is why I hated the 90s snow pattern.  So, I would urge patience w/ the pattern.  I think it entirely possible I get blanked here in Kingsport.  But I know what Ninos are capable of late in the season.  We could just have crap the rest of winter, or you could be shoveling your way out of your house.  The NAO has been awful and we need a good NAO at this latitude.  We got lucky w/ a +PNA that worked last year...most years that by itself gets us the pattern that we are in...which is less than satisfactory.

 

I am banking on three things as we head home this winter 1. The waters have warmed at the dateline and points just westward.  2.  Spring.  At some point Spring will reshuffle this pattern...and that usually means bouts of cold and warm along w/ thunderstorms and snowstorms. 3.  Climo.  Weak Ninos should deliver at some point.  I have learned from Mr. Bob and other Mets that climatology for a given area wins nine times out of ten.  That is why I was insistent that December would be warm. I didn't listen to that wisdom and sunk myself for the January temp contest and went warm in the East.  That is not supported by climo.  Went climo for February, and I should finish in a better position.  Averages don't determine the weather, but they do help make sense out of chaos.

 

Hey, it should get crazy cold for the rest of the month.  So, we have one ingredient available. 

 

Ok, so my question is how could the models, the GFS be so different from one day to the next?????

 

 

I think we can thank the DPRK...  They have hacked western global weather models.    Yeah I don't really recall long stretches like this winter with such crazy huge unreliability in LR models.  Of course they always have to be taken with a grain of salt but every so often a LR modeled event would pan out pretty close to accurate.  Just seems this year is worse than normal in LR accuracy.

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Certainly not the best of model trends today.  But I am taking climo to the dance.  February and a weak El Nino should at some point deliver...maybe even in early March.  I have always hated Nino winters because they require so much patience.  They don't nickel and dime you to snow averages.  They either get you with one big storm or blank you.  That is why I hated the 90s snow pattern.  So, I would urge patience w/ the pattern.  I think it entirely possible I get blanked here in Kingsport.  But I know what Ninos are capable of late in the season.  We could just have crap the rest of winter, or you could be shoveling your way out of your house.  The NAO has been awful and we need a good NAO at this latitude.  We got lucky w/ a +PNA that worked last year...most years that by itself gets us the pattern that we are in...which is less than satisfactory.

 

I am banking on three things as we head home this winter 1. The waters have warmed at the dateline and points just westward.  2.  Spring.  At some point Spring will reshuffle this pattern...and that usually means bouts of cold and warm along w/ thunderstorms and snowstorms. 3.  Climo.  Weak Ninos should deliver at some point.  I have learned from Mr. Bob and other Mets that climatology for a given area wins nine times out of ten.  That is why I was insistent that December would be warm. I didn't listen to that wisdom and sunk myself for the January temp contest and went warm in the East.  That is not supported by climo.  Went climo for February, and I should finish in a better position.  Averages don't determine the weather, but they do help make sense out of chaos.

 

Hey, it should get crazy cold for the rest of the month.  So, we have one ingredient available. 

 

Ok, so my question is how could the models, the GFS be so different from one day to the next?????

My theory is that wx models have difficulty when severe cold is found in the Arctic. The colder it is, the worse they are. But something is obviously amiss. Also makes me wonder if the wx data sets we get might be corrupted or that we are missing data. This has been a relatively stable pattern so there shouldn't have been so much variability IMO.

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I think we can thank the DPRK...  They have hacked western global weather models.    Yeah I don't really recall long stretches like this winter with such crazy huge unreliability in LR models.  Of course they always have to be taken with a grain of salt but every so often a LR modeled event would pan out pretty close to accurate.  Just seems this year is worse than normal in LR accuracy.

It has been bad. No other way to sugarcoat it. However, with a +AO and +NAO this winter...no need for a wx model.

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But if we get a big storm to close the season, we reach climo. And after all of the various seasonal forecast tools used SAI, etc...wouldn't be crazy if someone had just taken seasonal averages and hit the nail on he head. Seems like the best tool for predicting winter wx is starting with seasonal norms and then working to either side of that norm based upon solar activity, ocean cycle, and ENSO.

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Don't trust it as mentioned above, but 00z has a storm rolling though from 190-204 that goes from West Texas, across the central Gulf States. 850s line up just south of the Kentucky border and crash across Tennessee, giving 40 north a bit of an accumulation. Especially along the KY line and into S/SE KY. Have seen this quite a number of times this year though, and this tends to be the timeframe where it looks really good before eventually cutting or getting suppressed to nothing.

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06z GFS brings the hammer to a good portion of Tennessee and a good portion of North Carolina this run in the 168-200 timeframe. The air is a bit colder a bit futher south and 3-8 inches are pretty wide spread, especially along the 40 corridor and points north. 

 

Bone chilling cold is in place prior to and immediately after the storm. The GFS is supporting 0 degree readings in the area with highs in the upper 10s/low 20s.

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