jaxjagman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 .DISCUSSION...BLUE SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON AND BREEZY WEST WINDSGUSTING AT TIMES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITHWINDS DIMINISHING. ON MONDAY MID STATE GENERALLY IN A COL AREAWHICH MEANS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTHE 50S. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MID STATE ON TUESDAY AND THEAIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER SOHIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS INTHE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. I`VE PUT A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERSTUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS YET ANOTHER FRONT MOVESTHROUGH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MIXIN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RAIN CHANCEMOVES IN THURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS IN WITH A RAIN ANDSNOW MIX POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND AREX BLOCK DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL KEEP STRONGNORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MUCH COLDER AIR DIVING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERNAREAS OF U.S. FOR A FEW DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SUNDAY INTOMONDAY IN THE MID STATE AS UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS AND MOVES ACROSSTHE AREA. Just read the BNA DISCO,we'll see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 We havent seen 1-2" of snow here in our parts since 2011..lol..i'm getting excited or should say plain stupid excited,i like our chances though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I've been reading about warming in stratosphere again. Also, been hearing about the PV over ne Canada around Greenland goes to Siberia. If that happens and warming continues, what can we expect moving forward? Thanks kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I've been reading about warming in stratosphere again. Also, been hearing about the PV over ne Canada around Greenland goes to Siberia. If that happens and warming continues, what can we expect moving forward? Thanks kevin depends where the PV actually is there is alot of differences between ops and esms,there is some better looks today but it still is showing only a minor SSW by Berlin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Still looks like nothing but snow Sunday-Mon for the Valley by the euro,ratios will suck per say but it wont be rain.Wet big snow flakes that might coat the cars and roof,least ts snow not rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Late January into February "should" be the best time (climo) for snow. Throw in a weak Niño and things should rock. As of today, I see very little evidence on the models or teleconnections for sustained winter WX. Yes, there are bouts of cold with a few chances for light snows, especially with.a northern branch feature early next week. Not set in stone, but a chance. But the current pattern for winter appears to persist. Cool, damp followed by cold, dry followed by warm, rain. I do think we score a decent snow. Climo would support that. But I think it is almost time to take the idea of a prolonged bout winter off the table. I thought we would break for winter late this month. It is becoming quite clear I am going to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Now, if one were looking for a ray of hope...the El Niño is showing some signs of awakening. How quickly does that impact February? I don't know. But the WX models may not be seeing its impacts yet. I don't think it is in time to save winter, but could surely make for a world-class miserable spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Now, if one were looking for a ray of hope...the El Niño is showing some signs of awakening. How quickly does that impact February? I don't know. But the WX models may not be seeing its impacts yet. I don't think it is in time to save winter, but could surely make for a world-class miserable spring. Annoying winter thus far.Temps keep rising and our sn chance for the weekend no longer look so great.Euro is showing the MJO going into the COD and possibly going out into p5... Edit:12z GFS got colder,but more dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Annoying winter thus far.Temps keep rising and our sn chance for the weekend no longer look so great.Euro is showing the MJO going into the COD and possibly going out into p5... Edit:12z GFS got colder,but more dry Early season blizzards in the mtns make me wary...we need to remember that next time. I think we still get snow FWIW. But the cards for sustained Arctic cold are just not on the table. This winter has also featured very little to track. The Euro weeklies have been on the money. I have rarely seen the op this bad. So, it is time to see if we can thread the needle. No need at this point to even look at long range models. With the jet so progressive, the models past day five will be awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Early season blizzards in the mtns make me wary...we need to remember that next time. I think we still get snow FWIW. But the cards for sustained Arctic cold are just not on the table. This winter has also featured very little to track. The Euro weeklies have been on the money. I have rarely seen the op this bad. So, it is time to see if we can thread the needle. No need at this point to even look at long range models. With the jet so progressive, the models past day five will be awful. Carversgap, why don't we do the winter cancel and save us some time instead of later on. Not sure how it will change for us. Getting later in the game now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Carversgap, why don't we do the winter cancel and save us some time instead of later on. Not sure how it will change for us. Getting later in the game now The power to cancel winter is not within my power. And I agree, chances are very slim. But in 1993 I wrote-off winter...and had to shovel my way out of that one. At some point Niño is going to show itself. When it does, things will get nasty. Looks like spring might be cold and rainy. In a system of chaos...well, expect chaos. We have six weeks of winter left. Anything can happen. It is possible the GFS just jumped the gun last week. Personally, getting ready to get my garden order ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 ...and the 12z Euro rings the bell. Yet another wild solution. We shall see if it holds. Not much for here...yet...but potential exists if a track inside Hatteras is for real. Crazy, just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 ...and the 12z Euro rings the bell. Yet another wild solution. We shall see if it holds. Not much for here...yet...but potential exists if a track inside Hatteras is for real. Crazy, just crazy. Track is pretty good, qpf seems pretty limited (around .2 for ne TN). Heavier moisture just off to the southeast by 75-100 miles. It will be interesting to see the ensembles and the control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 By the way, we are in phase 8 of the MJO. Where the heck is our snow? lol Been wondering the same thing,heck why are 65 degrees..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Track is pretty good, qpf seems pretty limited (around .2 for ne TN). Heavier moisture just off to the southeast by 75-100 miles. It will be interesting to see the ensembles and the control. Keep us posted as I don't have access to any of that. The biggest question is the track...nothing else matters at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro OP and Ensembles agree on the look at 5H, with energy diving down and starting a phase in Texas before rolling east. The question looks to be HOW MUCH interaction there will be and how expansive the precip shield will be. This thing can only come so far north, so it looks likely it will be a southern slider of sorts. We REALLY need for this trough to go negative 6-12 hours earlier IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro control has a 1010 low around Panama City, FL at 1PM Friday, 1007mb between Waycross and Brunswick GA at 7PM Friday, and pretty rapidly strengthening while climbing the coast from there to the outer banks of NC at 994mb Interestingly, there are over 10 individual members that paste large parts of TN pretty good (over 6+) in the next 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro is sniffing something out...we have seen this film before. What it is? I have no idea. It has been all over the place but this is inside five days. So, may be on to something. Raleigh to the mtns looks like the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Modeling, in the past 7 years that I've followed them, almost always tend to underdo the North and NW extent of precip shields on GOM lows. If a LP is around N. Florida to anywhere inside Hattaras, East Tennessee at least has a shot most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Well, on the bright side...we have something to track until 0z. LOL. Track is everything. It is late January, there are less hoops to jump through to get snow. So, we get on the northwest side, we are money. Stays suppressed, nothing to talk about. My hunch is that the models are catching a hint of northern stream interaction. To me...looks too far northwest and you rarely hear me say that. There is simply nothing to turn that system up the coast IMO. So, it better be north to begin with or it stays south. But this has been a winter of busts...so maybe that is in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Right now all the models trended NW today except for the GFS. The canadian showed a perfect track but an unrealistically small precip shield. It had a 1010 LP in the N.GOM with precip barely making it north of I-20. Oddly, most models are trending towards the NAVGem, which is often awful, but it's been showing a large snowstorm for here for a couple days worth of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 I don't know...something seems out of kilter. Euro may have hiccuped north and may settle southward again. Looks about at its limits in terms of how far north and west it can jog. Hopefully, we wake up with something still to follow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The weeklies are showing the system for the 23rd coming through the Valley,its to warm though Edit:Never mind,my weeklies on my site i'm using didn't load right the dates are all flawed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The weeklies are showing the system for the 23rd coming through the Valley,its to warm though I am not surprised; guess I am feeling a little jaded on the entire Winter, had so high hopes that this was the year, I guess if it is any consolation, since his winter prediction has been a flop for the TN Valley so far, we can expect the prediction from JB that the next 5 years worth of Winters will be warm, based on the track record so far this Winter, they could turn out to be cold and snowy, something that this Winter was suppose to have in the bag! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Favor time, if y'all don't mind. I just uploaded a new video with my thoughts on what may or may not happen with this storm. I know many of y'all like my Facebook page, and I can't thank y'all enough. IF not, please do. So we don't clutter up this thread, please check out the video and let me know what y'all think, but I want to know what y'all think as well. Drop a comment and let me know how I can improve the videos or whatever. Plus vote on what y'all think happens and we will see who gets the closest when done. Should be fun! Thanks everyone! -Chris https://www.facebook...riswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 0z Euro is really amped and juicy. It phases the two streams nicely. Has up to 1" of QPF across most of East TN. This is the perfect track for us but it is too warm on the Euro. If this was a few degrees colder it would be a classic paste job. I'm not giving up hope yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The 06 has an amazing track for us, one that would normally be a big snow event here. Sadly, not quite cold enough so we get a miller A rainstorm with temps in the upper 30s/low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The post weekend clipper looks to bring 1-3+ inches from Crossville and points north and east. But who knows about it. Models are generally not to be trusted once again beyond 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Perfect track. Zero cold air to work with...unless something changes we will be left talking about dynamic cooling...that rarely happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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