tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Looking at the 12z Euro individual ensembles, I count 14 of 51 that have around or more than 6 inches SOMEWHERE in the state of TN in the 15 day period. The mean shows 2 inches over most of the state, with closer to 2.5-3 north of I-40, with 4+ in northeast TN. It will be interesting to see the trends on this as we go into next week.I also see several individual members with 2+ in northern AL, northern GA, and northern MS. Heck, there are two that show accumulating snow down toward the gulf coast. The control must show an inland runner around day 8ish. It has a pretty good pasting of the southern apps (6+), but a tight gradient back to Knoxville where 2-3 is showing, and much of that is day 10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The pattern looks great if it comes to pass. After that where the specific storm sets up is all a crapshoot. But I like the look we are currently getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Morning 0z Euro individual summary KTRI - 20/51 yield 2+ inches of snow in the 1-15. 5/51 with 6+. KBNA - 16/51 yield 2+ inches and 5/51 with 6+ KTYS - 12/51 2+ and 4/51 with 6+ KMRC (Columbia) 12/51 with 2+ and 4/51 with 6+ I checked around at other sites in northern MS, AL, and GA and there was not much there. A handful suggesting around an inch or so in places and typically one or two that was showing 2+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Tnweathernut, I don't mean to sound like a Debbie downer, but it seems like we will have the cold and dry or warm and wet setup for rest of winter. The ao and nao go back positive after a brief trend downward. The pattern looks to remain extremely progressive. Nothing to me signals a change to what we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I think the Euro ensembles are very encouraging in terms of a shift to a favorable pattern. If my count is correct and I think it is, 0z was the 6th run in a row that has had a good portion of ensemble members bringing snow to the TN valley and the latest run has more big dogs than I've seen yet. This tool was a useful indicator last season. While it doesn't behoove us to get caught up in the run to run swings of the deterministic model and it's sometimes wildly different depictions of what is going to happen a week or more out, mulling over 50 variations of possibilities does. Couple that with the semi-consistent GFS and GGEM pattern looks lately and one can begin to get encouraged. Robert is cautiously optimistic about the ramifications of a western ridge during peak climo. Of course it's possible nothing pans out, but all in all, we are not in a bad spot I don't think. At the very least we have some fantasies to track which is an improvement over what we've had up to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Tnweathernut, I don't mean to sound like a Debbie downer, but it seems like we will have the cold and dry or warm and wet setup for rest of winter. The ao and nao go back positive after a brief trend downward. The pattern looks to remain extremely progressive. Nothing to me signals a change to what we had. Persistence has been the way to go this year, so I understand your skepticism. As we get deeper into winter, the storm track tends to move south so this should help. Also, it is disappointing to see the indicies all heading back against us BUT there is a lot of warming going on in the strat right now and the PV hasn't ever really gotten strong again so IMO it's only a matter of time (days) before we see that being taken out. I think Feb could be a very good month with the consistent ridging out west thanks to the record breaking +PDO. As long as that keeps pumping and delivering a -EPO we will tap cold often. The pattern will remain progressive, but that doesn't mean we can't score. I don't know if anyone realizes this or not, but yesterday is a great example of what can happen. If that piece of energy was just a little stronger, it could have been a nice 2-4 inch snow for many in northern GA,AL,MS and parts of TN. The forecast for most of these areas was for highs in the low to mid 40's, reality was in the mid 30's in many cases. At some point we will time one and we could have something to track before the new week starts. The Euro is seeing a BIG dump of cold air the last week of the month so that would be another period to watch. I know I have rambled a little here, but I hope this perks you up a bit. Winter is still relatively young here in the SE where we get the bulk of our winter from Jan 20-Feb 28th anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I think the Euro ensembles are very encouraging in terms of a shift to a favorable pattern. If my count is correct and I think it is, 0z was the 6th run in a row that has had a good portion of ensemble members bringing snow to the TN valley and the latest run has more big dogs than I've seen yet. This tool was a useful indicator last season. While it doesn't behoove us to get caught up in the run to run swings of the deterministic model and it's sometimes wildly different depictions of what is going to happen a week or more out, mulling over 50 variations of possibilities does. Couple that with the semi-consistent GFS and GGEM pattern looks lately and one can begin to get encouraged. Robert is cautiously optimistic about the ramifications of a western ridge during peak climo. Of course it's possible nothing pans out, but all in all, we are not in a bad spot I don't think. At the very least we have some fantasies to track which is an improvement over what we've had up to this point. The mean is a little less from 12z yesterday, but still 2+ for the northern 1/2 with amounts approaching 3-4 for the northeast tip of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I've not had time to look at the models today, but the 00z gfs was showing a very similar look to the gfs in the week leading up to the February storm last year. For years it's under done the northern extent of precipitation shields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I am a skeptismist lol. Im also a realist as well. We are in a progressive pattern. Energy hangs back.and gets strung out and not able to phase with a system. I dont blame anyone for optimism, but we will want.to see radical changes before we have a legit winter threat for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I am a skeptismist lol. Im also a realist as well. We are in a progressive pattern. Energy hangs back.and gets strung out and not able to phase with a system. I dont blame anyone for optimism, but we will want.to see radical changes before we have a legit winter threat for us There is only one thing to do in a situation like this where energy is in question and there is a possibility of it hanging back.... Summon ENERGY JEFF!!! Seriously, Energy Jeff's take on the modeling this week and general outlook would be appreciated. As would Bob's, Math/Met's, and the other experts that chime in to keep the weenies grounded. I imagine they aren't too impressed otherwise we'd have red chatter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 As usual, Don Sutherland has some great posts in the main forum that are worth checking out. He is cautiously optimistic about February. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44807-winter-2014-2015-medium-term-discussion/page-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 MOJO close to hitting p8 tommorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 The 12z features a very progressive pattern, warm/cold being pretty consistent with neither one locking in for any length of time. It does show several shots for flakes to fly, including one fairly stout clipper that drops a few inches in parts of the area. Then it still has the epic fantasy miller A at the end. That thing is a unicorn. At this point, the clipper at 144-156 is probably a unicorn too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 The 12z features a very progressive pattern, warm/cold being pretty consistent with neither one locking in for any length of time. It does show several shots for flakes to fly, including one fairly stout clipper that drops a few inches in parts of the area. Then it still has the epic fantasy miller A at the end. That thing is a unicorn. At this point, the clipper at 144-156 is probably a unicorn too. thought the euro would be colder for the system on the 25-26 for Mid Tn. 500mb temps are -30 to-31C,it shouldnt take much to propagate downwards to help the surface temps.But like you said,it's a moot point right now,this will change over and over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Still think we are ten days out before the pattern gets really good. GFS has a tendency to jump the gun on pattern changes. Though, the AO from CPC gives me a little pause. I have been riding the climo train all year and see no reason to jump off. I think climo scores one for the home team during the time frame of Jan 25 - Feb 28...maybe more than once. This time frame may just be a normal, late-winter pattern. There are some hints it could be better than that. However, trying to break a snowless cycle can be tough...but this is the year 2015! Sorry, had to throw that in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 ' Uptick on yesterdays run.Its a weak signal but its grown the last couple days and going poleward.PV though is still headed towards Siberia,hope it gets better when Berlin updates tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I am trying my best not to get too comfortable with the numerical model forecasts of Saturday. Yes, these schemes pretty much vindicate my winter outlook up to this point in time. But then again, the equations have shown an incredible streak for rather abrupt changes. Just yesterday I remarked to a friend that the new GFS version was a predictive embarrassment. The revision, despite a much tighter grid, seems to have no comprehension of the low latitude inputs and stability of standing vortices in northern locations. And the other prediction suites have been both inconsistent and often dreadfully wrong. As I remarked in the medium range discussion, it is best to look at the main contributors to the forecast and use seasonal analog sets to see which computer outlook, if any, is correct. We know that in a weak El Nino episode with a strong positive signal in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (nice ribbon of warmer SST anomalies from the Alaskan shore down the coastline to west of California), -EPO/-AO ridge complexes should proliferate. Arctic motherlodes would be forced to shift into the Great Lakes, Ontario and/or Quebec, creating a case for cold weather across the eastern half of the continent. If a strong southern branch input is observed (clearly the case here), then the potential exists for an important, if not intense, storm of the Miller A type along the Gulf Coast and along the Eastern Seaboard. Since the ECMWF and GFS ensemble groups were virtually identical and endorsed the above scenario, I think that we should see cases for extreme cold along and to the right of the Interstate 35 corridor (Laredo TX to Duluth MN). I suspect that the storm risk will be present January 25 - 27 and perhaps again on February 2 - 3. So while the West stays out of the fray with mostly fair and mild conditions, the eastern half of the nation will be reminded that this is a fairly tough winter after all with high quantities of sea ice on the Great Lakes and a snow line that reaches into parts of Dixie. And next week we must talk about what may be the peak of the 2014-2015 winter season. Those analogs look downright ominous as we head toward Valentine's Day and President's Day. "More later...." Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Man, the AO looks not so good again on the CPC today. PNA predicted to goe strongly negative. NAO does not even sniff negative. We will have a brief window it appears at the end of the month between the 21st and 30th before those teleconnections are unfavorable again. Then, based on the modeling of the past few days...the window closes again. Remember, it was the OPs that sniffed out the incorrect ensembles in mid-December. I think the GFS jumped the gun again on the cold. I still feel confident that we see some winter this year outlined in my previous posts. I am now leaning towards a normal climo month for February in terms of temps and snow. We had a chance at a banner month, but it looks like the Atlantic will not cooperate. I think we thread the needle on at least one storm....but we are going to need some helps to get a pattern of sustained Arctic cold. We also need the southern jet to wake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Still like the end of next weekend.Rex block gonna pump colder air into the Valley.Don't look that bad at all looking at the 5H for sn.Still don't think the Euro has a good handle with the cold pool.500mb temps during this time are now showing -32C at 500mb and the thickness is at 522-528,just believe these lower levels temps the euro is showing is to warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 ..stronger SSW coming up? Man, the AO looks not so good again on the CPC today. PNA predicted to goe strongly negative. NAO does not even sniff negative. We will have a brief window it appears at the end of the month between the 21st and 30th before those teleconnections are unfavorable again. Then, based on the modeling of the past few days...the window closes again. Remember, it was the OPs that sniffed out the incorrect ensembles in mid-December. I think the GFS jumped the gun again on the cold. I still feel confident that we see some winter this year outlined in my previous posts. I am now leaning towards a normal climo month for February in terms of temps and snow. We had a chance at a banner month, but it looks like the Atlantic will not cooperate. I think we thread the needle on at least one storm....but we are going to need some helps to get a pattern of sustained Arctic cold. We also need the southern jet to wake up. Edit:the pic is from the gefs mean.some reason on the maps from this site when i enlarge the pic it cuts part of it off so i have to keep it small Edit again:this is at 10mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 GFS has hinted at some clipper action late this week and early next week. Beggars can't be choosers. Right now it is cold and dry...suppressed. Or warm w/ rain. I think we have a chance to break that pattern as the cold presses south and the wavelengths change due to inevitable spring. Right now, the pattern is too progressive. Bout the only way we can score is for the first system to dump cold into the SE and the caboose to slide into it. Yes, I know it's a boring pattern...but you all are too quiet today. I usually just have time to post on weekends as I am coaching a basketball team and working as well. So, fire it up, everyone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The control run was a nice one today. If you like seeing most if the state buried in snow...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The control run was a nice one today. If you like seeing most if the state buried in snow...... The Euro showed a system by the four corners but its dry and the control shows this wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 The control run was a nice one today. If you like seeing most if the state buried in snow...... Feel free to describe. Remind all of us (me included) about the difference in the Op and the Control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 By the way, we are in phase 8 of the MJO. Where the heck is our snow? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Feel free to describe. Remind all of us (me included) about the difference in the Op and the Control. Not a horrible look Carver,we should be cold the 1st week into Feb, though the 850's will suck but we will be in a -epo pattern so late in the period ice threats should be there with any systems.The question to me in beyond this period is going into the 2nd week of Feb.The graph i posted last night started to show some nice uptick poleward and now that map of the GEFS to be is showing the same.-NAO/AO towards mid of Feb?Dunno,we've see this before only to be let down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yes and its where we want it,can we cash in? By the way, we are in phase 8 of the MJO. Where the heck is our snow? lol Edit:Just using feb mojo it's not going anywhere fast with weak sigs,it will probably be still in a weak p8 mjo sig onto Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Hot off the presses folks! Sorry that it is a long video, just a ton of stuff to go over. My latest thoughts on the models, and the trends of them. Its a long shot Friday, but there are some positive trends IMHO today. Check out the video for more please, and Thank you!! -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 still believe this is all sn next weekend into Mon,text off the euro BNA..17QPFS TRI..14 TYS..08 Still think it under cuts the orographic stations,tri wll always do better than the majority of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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