jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Might be...that report from CPC is just two days old. I also think they look at upwelling and temps just below the surface. Sometimes cool water will hit the surface and throw-off the numbers and then the warm water works its way back up after lurking just underneath. Best I can gather, that is why they look at the whole water column. We can find out tomorrow maybe,it would help with a time stamp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 better warming hitting the PV,almost 10c hr 87,not sure where this will go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 GFS is once again cold with a few warm ups just in time for rain or mix events. Then back to frigid with below 0 temps showing up again in the long range. The extreme cold is lurking in the upper midwest for most of the run. I honestly think the GFS is probably too warm if the cold there verifies, especially for the western half of the Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 GFS is once again cold with a few warm ups just in time for rain or mix events. Then back to frigid with below 0 temps showing up again in the long range. The extreme cold is lurking in the upper midwest for most of the run. I honestly think the GFS is probably too warm if the cold there verifies, especially for the western half of the Valley. I agree - I usually just read the posts you guys make instead of commenting but it makes me nervous when I see that much cold lurking just north of the region and all this moisture in place - I have a gut feeling someone in the region is going to get a bad ice storm before the winter is over - just my gut nothing to back it up really other than experience in the ice storms of especially 1994 in Middle TN that was awful out of power over a week and a half they had to physically reset alot of the power poles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I would be happy with a mini icestorm. It sounds crazy, but its an event and I just don't want to get shut out all winter with no event. That's where we are going without a dramatic change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I would be happy with a mini icestorm. It sounds crazy, but its an event and I just don't want to get shut out all winter with no event. That's where we are going without a dramatic change I actually think many professionals (and enthusiasts too) thought this year would be wall to wall cold and snowy when so many features looked to be in great shape for cold and snow. In reality, that's almost impossible to do in the south. The analog packages were showing the winter would likely be a December question mark, a January tug of war, and a rocking February. It seems to be making a lot more sense now. IF we end up getting blanked, I might find another hobby. I put the chances of that at slim and none. There will be opportunities as we move toward our peak climo time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Pretty drastic change,wasnt the GFS a weak 5 yesterday,any one remember? Edit:still half a sleep,i was talking about the ending point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Tnweathernut, just a little nao ao that's negative to put a smile on our faces. I guess since last winter was so cold, we are making up for it this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Jaxjagman,the euro is usually the better model with mjo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Jaxjagman,the euro is usually the better model with mjo Euro has a weak signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Jax, Real weak as in going back into the COD wouldn't in itself be bad based on it being colder on average than phases 1-8 in January in ATL since 1975 though the +NAO/+AO are admittedly not what I prefer seeing for persistent cold chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Might be...that report from CPC is just two days old. I also think they look at upwelling and temps just below the surface. Sometimes cool water will hit the surface and throw-off the numbers and then the warm water works its way back up after lurking just underneath. Best I can gather, that is why they look at the whole water column. Carver,think it updates daily but it looks nothing like yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Carver,think it updates daily but it looks nothing like yesterday Analysis Tools Ocean Analysis Tropical Tidbits.png Blah,put the wrong graph up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Jax, Real weak as in going back into the COD wouldn't in itself be bad based on it being colder on average than phases 1-8 in January in ATL since 1975 though the +NAO/+AO are admittedly not what I prefer seeing for persistent cold chances. Thats what i was wondering we are losing the EPO AND A +AO/NAO,why are the models so cold?The weaking of the PV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Thats what i was wondering we are losing the EPO AND A +AO/NAO,why are the models so cold?The weaking of the PV? Perhaps the cold is related to the +PDO/weak El Niño combo? That combo by itself is often cold in much of the E US though the lack of blocking accompanying that combo is not helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 Carver,think it updates daily but it looks nothing like yesterday Analysis Tools Ocean Analysis Tropical Tidbits.png Honestly, I read the CPC report each time it comes out and look at the animation of Pacific surface temps periodically. Everything I can get my hands on points to a weak to moderate el Nino. If February goes cold and snowy to some extent in the East...well, it pretty much behaved as most Ninos. Though some Nino years in Knoxville from the 1990s were snowless, I think the I-40 corridor in TN will do OK this time around. Not great, but OK. Weak Ninos are usually a golden ticket...but something seems admittedly "off" this year and has seemed that way since late November. I am toying with the idea that Ana(the East coast storm that came from the recurve) created a pattern that emptied NA of cold in November...and that really screwed things up in terms of winter. Almost like now we are in early December with the cold finally rebuilt in Canada. Ninos can be fickle and this one certainly has been that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Perhaps the cold is related to the +PDO/weak El Niño combo? That combo by itself is often cold in much of the E US though the lack of blocking accompanying that combo is not helping. Thanks,the EPS looks warm to me but yet the Det.Euro is showing BNA -10.6C on the 2m's,,not sure what to think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Honestly, I read the CPC report each time it comes out and look at the animation of Pacific surface temps periodically. Everything I can get my hands on points to a weak to moderate el Nino. If February goes cold and snowy to some extent in the East...well, it pretty much behaved as most Ninos. Though some Nino years in Knoxville from the 1990s were snowless, I think the I-40 corridor in TN will do OK this time around. Not great, but OK. Weak Ninos are usually a golden ticket...but something seems admittedly "off" this year and has seemed that way since late November. I am toying with the idea that Ana(the East coast storm that came from the recurve) created a pattern that emptied NA of cold in November...and that really screwed things up in terms of winter. Almost like now we are in early December with the cold finally rebuilt in Canada. Ninos can be fickle and this one certainly has been that. Thanks,i'm not doubting you by all means.You are the "preacher".You seem to be spot on so far this winter:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 Thanks,i'm not doubting you by all means.You are the "preacher".You seem to be spot on so far this winter:) LOL. Nah, no preacher. I have just been riding Nino climo all year. I can't really take credit for that. We had so many Ninos in the 90s I grew not to like them because opportunities were so limited. However, we did hit the mother load several times in that decade...just not much in between. I naturally have a cold bias in my thinking, just not with el Nino. Like anyone in this hobby, I miss more than I make by a big ratio. I just guessed the pattern would repeat itself. So, it is like watching the same TV program again. Now, another reason I hated the 90s Ninos is that several of them were shutouts. But several years had big opportunities. Like tnweathernut, I would be surprised for a shutout to happen this year. If that happened, I would be wrong in my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 GFSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014 2015 Page 53 Weather Discussion and Chat Netweather Community Forums.png GFSP I'm wondering by this look if we will finally see the AO nose dive and stay - for a prolong period,if this is right of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Starting to get into Joe Renkens range call for a severe outbreak around the 12th in the Tn Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The 12z Euro is quite a bit colder for the morning of Jan 8 now...the trough exiting the eastern seaboard sharpens a bit more and allows the arctic air to penetrate well into TN....Euro now showing single digits in BNA, TRI and TYS that morning...it is now slightly colder than the GFS is showing....unfortunately with the +NAO the cold air is gone by the time another heavy rain event comes through the following weekend...I don't think the atmosphere will have enough recovery time for severe in our neck of the woods.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I agree, severe threat would be extremely low IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I agree, severe threat would be extremely low IMO. If the ens mean of the euro is right its not going to be that cold still,but none the less here is the euro temps for BNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 3 degrees for Tri,still dont believe this looking at the eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Dont believe what the Euro is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I don't believe it will be that warm, perhaps an average between both of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Dont believe what the Euro is showing If you look at the max 2 meter temps on the Euro ensembles for the time period just after that, hour 198 (or 1PM) it's showing around 30-33. It's a pretty impressive map, considering it's the ensemble. I won't be surprised if we have a day where the highs are in the low to mid 20's, with lows approaching single digits from this. Time will tell. Also, just glancing at the rest of the ensembles through 360, 500 looks warmish, but the surface stays fairly cool with highs in the low to mid 40's and lows in the upper 20's to 30's. All that said, it's not a snow pattern, but maybe we can sneak in a small event with good timing in the next week to 10 days. After that is probably a coin flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 Looks like maybe some sleet or freezing rain for the foothills of the northeast valley for late tonight or early morning. Minimal impact, but better than nothing. As for the medium to long range, the models have been awful. It does, however, just look like the cold slides off and does not establish itself. That said...the GFS has shown hints of a reloading pattern. Basically, Euro is warm and GFS is cold-ish. I think it is a matter of time before a +PNA gets established. Just a matter of when. Weeklies show anything today???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.