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December Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Some clarity showing on the 12z euro ens run. Looks like either a strong sw or possible closed low traverses almost due east. Once the trough gets here (d12?) It stays. SE has below normal heights and temps d12-15. Pna/epo look to start the transition to favorable as the storm makes its trip.

I agree with matt about the Atlantic. Not good but the ao looks to go negative. Hopefully the big area of high heights in Canada move towards the Davis straight down the line.

Seems pretty consistent with the GEFS.  +PNA/-EPO seems the most robust on the guidance.  There's still a piece of the PV stuck on the other side of the ridging over Hudson Bay in that Day 10-15 time range and that looks to prevent the NAO from dropping and also from getting really cold air back into Canada.  But either way, it's certainly a pattern that could offer snow chances in the last 10 days of the month. 

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the ensembles aren't showing it...a slightly better Atlantic, but nothing like the OP is showing.

Ensemble mean  still looks to be improving, it weakens the pat jet and establishes ridging in NW Canada.  I think the pattern that the SSTs and snowcover indexes support will establish itself by the end of the month,  this pac torch crap can only make a stand for so long :weenie: .

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Ensemble mean  still looks to be improving, it weakens the pat jet and establishes ridging in NW Canada.  I think the pattern that the SSTs and snowcover indexes support will establish itself by the end of the month,  this pac torch crap can only make a stand for so long :weenie: .

 

sometime after 12/20 sound about right

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Sold. Hecs during a period where snow won't melt with sun and highs in the 20's sounds pretty good.

Not sure there's a bunch of support in that period for Nino though.  20s and cold dry winds seems more likely. :P 

 

Might have to wait till the Feb super HECS to get our real fill. 

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Not sure there's a bunch of support in that period for Nino though.  20s and cold dry winds seems more likely. :P

 

Might have to wait till the Feb super HECS to get our real fill. 

 

If we do get a HECS it will be on February 25th and be sunny and 55 the next day.

 

The storm after the storm. Book it.

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Not sure there's a bunch of support in that period for Nino though. 20s and cold dry winds seems more likely. :P

Might have to wait till the Feb super HECS to get our real fill.

I'm ready to embrace a snowpack fetish. Last year was great for events but bad for retention. 09-10 was a great example of how 9 feet of snow can start and end its trek to the sewer in less than 2 weeks.

I want a Jan/feb 87/03 redux before my time is up.

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I'm ready to embrace a snowpack fetish. Last year was great for events but bad for retention. 09-10 was a great example of how 9 feet of snow can start and end its trek to the sewer in less than 2 weeks.

I want a Jan/feb 87/03 redux before my time is up.

 

I dunno much about LR and prob never will.. but seems like there's a solid chance the Pac and Atl couple up around then with what I look at. But, that's not much better than a random guess probably.

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Jan 1-15 seems like a potential HECS period.

 

I'll be in Phoenix at the AMS conference during Jan 2-9... I bet it will happen then :weenie:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

but seriously, I wouldn't be surprised at a 4-8"+ event in that timeframe. The pattern will flip after the 20th, and then probably set the stage for a nice event around the first week of January. 

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I'm ready to embrace a snowpack fetish. Last year was great for events but bad for retention. 09-10 was a great example of how 9 feet of snow can start and end its trek to the sewer in less than 2 weeks.

I want a Jan/feb 87/03 redux before my time is up.

 

Move a little further west or north or higher in elevation and there is vast improvement of snowpack retention. I've noticed it myself in 09-10 when going between College Park and Cockeysville... and last year it held on much better at Millersville and Parkton (which are only marginally colder climo-wise) than at home in Cockeysville. I wouldn't be surprised if Damascus had snowpack for a full month last year from January 21st to late Feb... snow seems to melt much less at elevation.

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I dunno much about LR and prob never will.. but seems like there's a solid chance the Pac and Atl couple up around then with what I look at. But, that's not much better than a random guess probably.

It's always a guess beyond 10 days and even then... Ugly patterns can be kinda easy get at longer leads though. Lol

A favorable change seems to be on deck. Could be temporary or could signal a longer term switch. We haven't had a cooperative Atlantic in years now. It has to happen eventually right?

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Maybe in Dec. Looks improved in Jan/Feb. The blocking look in Jan is ridiculous. 

 

Anyway, here is a numbers crunch:

(Because I have too much time on my hands)

02/03- 40.4"

97/98- .1"

59/60- 24.3"

76/77- 11.1"

51/52- 10.2"

 

Average: 17.26" 

Weighted average: 20.02" 

Feb also looks like a pacific jet, or am I seeing it wrong?

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I'll be in Phoenix at the AMS conference during Jan 2-9... I bet it will happen then :weenie:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

but seriously, I wouldn't be surprised at a 4-8"+ event in that timeframe. The pattern will flip after the 20th, and then probably set the stage for a nice event around the first week of January. 

I am in need of a Super Bowl Sunday HECS.......

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I do not recall a late fall/early winter period with such a succession of cut-offs

the Euro suggests at the end of its run that there's another one after this one hangs around all week

idk if once the pattern changes we lose the cut-offs due to the faster flow, but it sure would be fun to have at least one of them when it was cold enough for snow

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I do not recall a late fall/early winter period with such a succession of cut-offs

the Euro suggests at the end of its run that there's another one after this one hangs around all week

idk if once the pattern changes we lose the cut-offs due to the faster flow, but it sure would be fun to have at least one of them when it was cold enough for snow

Imo- cutoffs aren't all they're cracked up to be other than cool to look at most of the time. Once they stack and occlude they lose their punch. The rapid deepening phase is pretty cool though.

I'd much prefer closed ull's with jet support running into a brick wall block. Lol

6z gefs was virtually unanimous in a return to a cold pattern by the 21st. Euro holding the same look it's had own the line with an active ss and +pna/-epo returning.

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Imo- cutoffs aren't all they're cracked up to be other than cool to look at most of the time. Once they stack and occlude they lose their punch. The rapid deepening phase is pretty cool though.

I'd much prefer closed ull's with jet support running into a brick wall block. Lol

6z gefs was virtually unanimous in a return to a cold pattern by the 21st. Euro holding the same look it's had own the line with an active ss and +pna/-epo returning.

Wes' favorite run of the gefs

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I do not recall a late fall/early winter period with such a succession of cut-offs

the Euro suggests at the end of its run that there's another one after this one hangs around all week

idk if once the pattern changes we lose the cut-offs due to the faster flow, but it sure would be fun to have at least one of them when it was cold enough for snow

It has been awhile since we got a nice long overrunning event in winter...this feels like the year for one...with the usual rain/snow line in play of course

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Moving in the right direction..neg height anomalies centered back over the Aleutians, pos heights building over the pole. Just need the pos heights in Canada to build further NE towards Greenland and squeeze out the low heights there and we be in business.

 

attachicon.gifalens500_maps.d11.2.gif

Key step is getting rid of the ridge north of HI that is helping to crank the pacjet and elongate the Aleution low.   Gefs break it down after 240hrs, the pattern should begin to amplify, and allow for cold somewhere in North America.

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What's nice about this pattern change is that it's not slipping to the right in time, at least not yet.  Models have it around the 19th-20th and it seems to be staying there. 

and both the GEFS and Euro ensmelbes seem to like the pattern change within a few days of the 20th.   I think the euro has been a tad slower but still has it by xmas.  The pattern on today's GEFS looks very nino-ish in terms of the anomaly patterns, A nice southern stream and high heights over southern Greenland.  That would be kind of exciting. 

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