Ongoing Banter Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Basically, looks like the next two storms create short term 50/50s and "sort of" create high latitude blocking by slowing the jet. Each storm sets the table with cold for the next one.

[1234snow]

My sister-in-law lives in the northwest quadrant. Two feet plus and they already have had like 4'. Sick, man. Just sick. Drifts will be historic.

Basically, looks like the next two storms create short term 50/50s and "sort of" create high latitude blocking by slowing the jet. Each storm sets the table with cold for the next one.

The blizzard train keeps rolling for them. Our storm could blow up again and give them another foot. That's really the only place that's had a snowy winter. Us, the Midatlantic, Philly-NYC, and the Ohio Valley have been well below normal.

Your right all of these nor'easters are helping us out without the -NAO. I'm not worried really anymore if we don't see a -NAO develop. The Pacific and +PNA has really been helping us out. Somebody brought up 1960 as a analog. Of course that is an extreme analog that would take about 50 years to happen. I could see us getting into a 1960-lite version through March. But we know back in November where looking at analogs got us!

I'll be happy if we get a few systems to finish off. Maybe we can finish close to average on snowfall.

[Carvers Gap]

The blizzard train keeps rolling for them. Our storm could blow up again and give them another foot. That's really the only place that's had a snowy winter. Us, the Midatlantic, Philly-NYC, and the Ohio Valley have been well below normal.

Your right all of these nor'easters are helping us out without the -NAO. I'm not worried really anymore if we don't see a -NAO develop. The Pacific and +PNA has really been helping us out. Somebody brought up 1960 as a analog. Of course that is an extreme analog that would take about 50 years to happen. I could see us getting into a 1960-lite version through March. But we know back in November where looking at analogs got us!

I'll be happy if we get a few systems to finish off. Maybe we can finish close to average on snowfall.

But November patterns often repeat and I think that is what is happening. We all knew that if that pattern showed itself during winter, it would be impressive. Trying not to get too excited.

[Carvers Gap]

If get I to normal for snow by the end of March I will be happy. I also think we reach seasonal norms for temps or get close. Basically, a fourth quarter comeback is now on the table. Wow.

[1234snow]

But November patterns often repeat and I think that is what is happening. We all knew that if that pattern showed itself during winter, it would be impressive. Trying not to get too excited.

Yeah I just thought it would happen about the 3rd week of January. I bought into the hype. You never did and you've said all along that February was going to be where our bread would be buttered. I'm cautiously optimistic too. We still are going to need some good timing with these pieces of energy in the pipeline. That is something that has killed us all winter without a -NAO. We haven't been able to slow the flow down. I think we would of already had a few good events if the forecasts back in November(of a long and consistent -AO/-NAO) had panned. The Cohen teleconnections didn't work out this winter at all.

[BamaChemE]

TDOT has already started putting out salt. I75 is covered just north of Nooga.

[John1122]

TDOT has already started putting out salt. I75 is covered just north of Nooga.

A strange decision with some potential rain showers this afternoon and early evening. Though they may not extend all the way down to that area.

[Carvers Gap]

After coaching basketball all morning, plugged back-in.  MANY thanks to tnweathernut for texting and keeping me updated.  Looked like a banner day to follow the models.  Great disco!!!  This thing works out, Stove's sunglasses pic will be legendary and might need to be his new avatar. 

[Stovepipe]

Busting out the classic, Cheryl Scott former WBIR weather girl:

 

[Carvers Gap]

Ok, probably time to create an observations thread for the event.  Label the event and then tag it so we can find it later. Mods or those w/ mod-like abilities can then pin it.

[BamaChemE]

I'm not buying these model trends at all. I have a feeling that a lot of people will be caught unprepared. 

[Stovepipe]

Why would anyone want to chase ice? Also what kind of vehicle would be suitable for that?

[Bango]

A question, is this a storm with deform band potential or is this going to be a widespread moisture running into cold air?  I know wrapped up systems have comma heads and such but this does not appear to be the type?

[Blue Ridge]

Why would anyone want to chase ice? Also what kind of vehicle would be suitable for that?

Wondering the same thing, lol. To chase snow, eastern KY around London, Hazard, or Jackson looks like the sweet spot. 

[kvskelton]

Why would anyone want to chase ice? Also what kind of vehicle would be suitable for that?

 

This would be my vehicle of choice, Stove...if I were so inclined. Which I'm not... 

 

[Stovepipe]

LOL nice!

[Blue Ridge]

Obs thread is up and running. 

[Bango]

Wondering the same thing, lol. To chase snow, eastern KY around London, Hazard, or Jackson looks like the sweet spot. 

 

As I was just watching Mark Reynolds (upper east tn) weather forecast he showed live viper future model.  It's a little strange to me that hazard, and summerset are getting such higher storm totals.  His Viper cast showed showed the most intense "precip" running from Knox north, northeast.  I guess they are getting the benefit of much higher ratio's or the angel of the warm nose is such that it funnels enough warm air into SWVA to create the difference (8-12 wise, 12-15 KY). 

[Blue Ridge]

As I was just watching Mark Reynolds (upper east tn) weather forecast he showed live viper future model.  It's a little strange to me that hazard, and summerset are getting such higher storm totals.  His Viper cast showed showed the most intense "precip" running from Knox north, northeast.  I guess they are getting the benefit of much higher ratio's or the angel of the warm nose is such that it funnels enough warm air into SWVA to create the difference (8-12 wise, 12-15 KY). 

I often question the validity of the forecasts in-house models (such as VIPIR) spit out. I've been told that some are a blend of model output, while others are simply the RPM. 

I haven't looked at any text output, but my guess is that area is where the best combination of moisture and atmospheric conditions exist. FWIW, it was but 24-36 hours ago that that sweet spot was modeled over East Tennessee. So close, yet so far.

[Vol Man]

Lots of schools starting to close...Sullivan County just announced closed for tomorrow. I'm guessing they may miss the whole week.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Ok guys, I'm in White House, TN north of Nashville. Should I go ahead and book the hotel room here or go further north ? How are things looking here ? I don't want to drive somewhere far away and see nothing but ice.

[kvskelton]

Lots of schools starting to close...Sullivan County just announced closed for tomorrow. I'm guessing they may miss the whole week.

 

Hawkins was closed tomorrow for the holiday already. I agree that the local counties will probably be closed all week.

 

Just heard from my daughter that ETSU has cancelled classes tomorrow as well.  

[Blue Ridge]

Dropping this in banter because lolDT
 

[Mr Bob]

Why would anyone want to chase ice? Also what kind of vehicle would be suitable for that?

Zamboni!

[Windspeed]

Next time a southern slider is forecast, I'm going to hype snow totals for Dayton, Ohio!

[PWRAndy]

Well it sucks having followed this storm for a week for it to get better each day and then turn to all rain 48 hours out.

[Carvers Gap]

Always remember this. Latitude means everything. If you want to see forecasters/models get snow right every time, Yellowknife is a good place to start.

[Windspeed]

Always remember this. Latitude means everything. If you want to see forecasters/models get snow right every time, Yellowknife is a good place to start.

 

They have the same problem forecasting rain as we do with snow this time of year.   

[Bango]

Wow I guess this storm defines why we need mets as opposed to relying on autopilot. I still have no idea if I'll wake up to freezing rain/sleet to rain, or if I'll be looking at a monster snow storm at KTRI, less then 8 hours out. 

[Carvers Gap]

They have the same problem forecasting rain as we do with snow this time of year. 

They are like...boys, if we can really get a good warm nose we may finally get rain for the first time in eight months. It is always 31 and snowing. They even have a poster called warmsnow.