usedtobe Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Keep in mind, I calculated it for SOND only. I wanted a lead signal for winter and wanted to capture a strengthening to peaking event. It is also a relative thing, too, where I am only comparing to other neutral/nino years. I missed that you were only talking about SOND. Seems like all the big years do have the divergence centered near the dateline during winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 September isn't out yet on ESRL, but I plotted Aug...probably worthless at this stage but suggests a weakish WC, more like some of the early 90s analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I missed that you were only talking about SOND. Seems like all the big years do have the divergence centered near the dateline during winter. It might explain the snow extremes with the MEI analogs I listed too. A stronger WC *could* kill the Nino, favoring below normal snow; but, it may be a snowy signal with a full-scale Nino. This would allow more W PAC divergence and possibly centering it toward the Dateline come winter when the ITCZ shifts south. If the cell is already weakened in the autumn, it could favor a more east-based forcing in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 September isn't out yet on ESRL, but I plotted Aug...probably worthless at this stage but suggests a weakish WC, more like some of the early 90s analogs Yeah August was significant east-based but I think September is going to look a lot more like 2009 than 1994. ESRL being down for maintenance is really a pain in the ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 As an example, here is the CHI comparisons for 1994 (left) and 2009 (right) for Sep-Dec. Despite both being carelessly called "modoki," 1994's Walker Cell was extremely weakened (like many were in the 90s). 2009, on the other hand, was much stronger with plenty of W PAC lift (ultimately it progressed to Dateline in winter). September isn't out yet on ESRL, but I plotted Aug...probably worthless at this stage but suggests a weakish WC, more like some of the early 90s analogs Yeah August was significant east-based but I think September is going to look a lot more like 2009 than 1994. ESRL being down for maintenance is really a pain in the ass. looks marginally stronger so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 The better longer-tem (since development in early spring) MEI progression analogs are extreme with results right now: 58-59: 4.9" 80-81: 4.5" 91-92: 6.6" 94-95: 10.1" 12-13: 3.1" ....OR.... 57-58: 40.4" 02-03: 40.3" 09-10: 56.1" The first group had many that started rapidly declining around this time of year. The new Aug/Sep number will be telling. 91-92 was of course Pinatubo-altered. 02/03 and 09/10 had decent OCT blocking with -AO; 10/57 had a +AO, but decently negative for the winter 58/59 had a +AO in 10/58, but decently -AO in DEC & JAN and +AO in FEB except for 58/59 & 12/13, the crummy group had lousy blocking through the winter 12/13 was a cold neutral, so we toss in my simplistic weenie mind, except for 58/59, we're on the road for a Group B type winter BUT, 58/59 worries me because ENSO match looks pretty close to what the models are painting now (though it followed a mod/strong NINO, unlike this winter) I say we just average 58/59 with 09/10 snowfall totals and call it a winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 02/03 and 09/10 had decent OCT blocking with -AO; 10/57 had a +AO, but decently negative for the winter 58/59 had a +AO in 10/58, but decently -AO in DEC & JAN and +AO in FEB except for 58/59 & 12/13, the crummy group had lousy blocking through the winter 12/13 was a cold neutral, so we toss in my simplistic weenie mind, except for 58/59, we're on the road for a Group B type winter BUT, 58/59 worries me because ENSO match looks pretty close to what the models are painting now (though it followed a mod/strong NINO, unlike this winter) I say we just average 58/59 with 09/10 snowfall totals and call it a winter lol 58/59 was very cold, though. So at least it wouldn't be a warm and dry winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Watch the variability with CCKWs and MJO waves Matt. That's part of what you are seeing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 02/03 and 09/10 had decent OCT blocking with -AO; 10/57 had a +AO, but decently negative for the winter 58/59 had a +AO in 10/58, but decently -AO in DEC & JAN and +AO in FEB except for 58/59 & 12/13, the crummy group had lousy blocking through the winter 12/13 was a cold neutral, so we toss in my simplistic weenie mind, except for 58/59, we're on the road for a Group B type winter BUT, 58/59 worries me because ENSO match looks pretty close to what the models are painting now (though it followed a mod/strong NINO, unlike this winter) I say we just average 58/59 with 09/10 snowfall totals and call it a winter lol I don't know much about 58-59...I know it was a wretched snow winter for DC-NY...boston did ok....it was a huge March for interior new england...As HM said, MEI was plummeting...we were coming out of a strong ENSO event...pretty much the opposite direction of this year...there was no real southern stream....it was a really paltry hangover event.....the QBO was strong easterly and the sun was strong....but I am not sure it is a good analog or one I am worried about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Just on the face of it, 58-59 looks like a pretty solid upper air pattern in the means. -AO/-NAO/-EPO/maybe a weak +PNA/ 50-50 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 58/59 was very cold, though. So at least it wouldn't be a warm and dry winter. It wasn't that cold down here....the north/south gradient was significant I think..Dec was cold...But January/FEB were normal/warm... Just on the face of it, 58-59 looks like a pretty solid upper air pattern in the means. -AO/-NAO/-EPO/maybe a weak +PNA/ 50-50 low djf5859.png yeah, but not a standard nino configuration...there is no secondary low anomaly in the south/southeast...it was also a bone dry 6-8 month period...it basically sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Watch the variability with CCKWs and MJO waves Matt. That's part of what you are seeing there. Cool, thanks.....I was just talking to CT Blizz and he is going to particularly focus on CCKW's this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Cool, thanks.....I was just talking to CT Blizz and he is going to particularly focus on CCKW's this winter LOL, I just meant that some of what you see was temporary, due to the passage of those features. In reference to the 200mb divergence map you posted and commented on from 9/1-9/24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 yeah, but not a standard nino configuration...there is no secondary low anomaly in the south/southeast...it was also a bone dry 6-8 month period...it basically sucked With that weak ridging in the SE and the E-W oriented troughing over southern Canada, it looks like it would have been a gradient pattern, which makes sense based on the temp anomalies you mentioned. Was it a better winter for PHL/NYC/BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I think we toss 58/59 because those old analogs never work out in our favor, so they can't work out against us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 With that weak ridging in the SE and the E-W oriented troughing over southern Canada, it looks like it would have been a gradient pattern, which makes sense based on the temp anomalies you mentioned. Was it a better winter for PHL/NYC/BOS? Philly - 5", NYC - 13", BOS - 34" March was the snowiest month for NYC & Boston, 50% of the season total at NYC & 40% of the season total at BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Philly - 5", NYC - 13", BOS - 34" March was the snowiest month for NYC & Boston, 50% of the season total at NYC & 40% of the season total at BOS Woof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 With that weak ridging in the SE and the E-W oriented troughing over southern Canada, it looks like it would have been a gradient pattern, which makes sense based on the temp anomalies you mentioned. Was it a better winter for PHL/NYC/BOS? It was a gradient winter...but more like going from really sucky in the south to just mildly sucky in SNE (though the interior was pretty much normal in SNE...BOS a bit below) The pattern wasn't bad though...I think it would probably produce better than what it did if we tried it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Just on the face of it, 58-59 looks like a pretty solid upper air pattern in the means. -AO/-NAO/-EPO/maybe a weak +PNA/ 50-50 low I always get nervous using the older analogs, for many reasons. Systematic responses to solar/tropical forcing were actually different in a lot of ways vs now. Though 1958-59 has the wretched Sun to begin with, some of the SSTA correlations w/ that year are crazy close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 I still like all my ideas from mid Sept and Mr A. is one of the very few going mild. When Is Weather Gang being released? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I still like all my ideas from mid Sept and Mr A. is one of the very few going mild. When Is Weather Gang being released? early to mid next week probably...I mostly have it done..just have to tweak a couple things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Temperatures:Above Average Snowfall:Average Rainfall:Above Average Seasonal Temps:+1.3 to +1.7 Monthly: Dec:0 to +1 Jan:0 Feb:+4 Snowfall DCA:15" Analog years:1974(5),1984(5), 1992(3)1997(8),2001(2) Believes there will be a major ice storm around 1/15/15 Ok call for December, a "0" Jan is not that mild, perhaps he will end up with Dec and Feb flipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Awful start so far for KA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Just thought I'd look at the 500h anomalies for 2014 and compare them to the analogs offered by K Allen. 3 of the 5 analogs correctly showed a positive NAO but 2 had a negative NAO. Those two had below normal heights and a negative PNA and positive EPO while 2014 had high heights over Ak and had a negative EPO more than a positive one yet most of the country still ended up averaging above normal for temps for Dec 2014. None of the analogs gave us below normal temperatures so in that sense they were OK but their reasons for not being cold varied a lot. The patterns at 500 varied quite a bit from one another and from the Dec 2014 pattern. I'll probably do the same thing for the Jan and Feb verifications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Ok call for December, a "0" Jan is not that mild, perhaps he will end up with Dec and Feb flipped. Historically, KA has done very well with overall winter departures. Better than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Historically, KA has done very well with overall winter departures. Better than me. You had a better call for December but turned it colder for Jan and Feb-I think? My minus call for December was terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Temperatures:Above Average Snowfall:Average Rainfall:Above Average Seasonal Temps:+1.3 to +1.7 Monthly: Dec:0 to +1 Jan:0 Feb:+4 Snowfall DCA:15" Analog years:1974(5),1984(5), 1992(3)1997(8),2001(2) Believes there will be a major ice storm around 1/15/15 KA is back baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Temperatures:Above Average Snowfall:Average Rainfall:Above Average Seasonal Temps:+1.3 to +1.7 Monthly: Dec:0 to +1 Jan:0 Feb:+4 Snowfall DCA:15" Analog years:1974(5),1984(5), 1992(3)1997(8),2001(2) Believes there will be a major ice storm around 1/15/15 Average December call, excellent January call, horrible February call, failed overall seasonal temp , snowfall undetermined but looking good. So a C, A, F, F, B so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 A +4 Feb would be awesome. Go KA!hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Average December call, excellent January call, horrible February call, failed overall seasonal temp , snowfall undetermined but looking good. So a C, A, F, F, B so far.I thought Jan was below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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