weathafella Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Gonna hit a brick wall in S CT me thinks. I'm glad this isn't winter Methinks is one word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 Methinks is one word. that'swhatihadalwaysbeentold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Methinks is one word. So is wee nie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Euro ensembles have some pretty good QPF probabilities up to the Pike. 30-40% chance of >0.5". 6z RGEM/NAM/GFS all on board with a good drink of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Euro ensembles have some pretty good QPF probabilities up to the Pike. 30-40% chance of >0.5". 6z RGEM/NAM/GFS all on board with a good drink of water. Yep, nice comma on the RGEM too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 Euro ensembles have some pretty good QPF probabilities up to the Pike. 30-40% chance of >0.5". 6z RGEM/NAM/GFS all on board with a good drink of water. This is really setting the stage for my winter meltdowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Upton's got an inch for us on the south coast...GFS and NAM at 6z are even wetter-2-3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Euro ensembles have some pretty good QPF probabilities up to the Pike. 30-40% chance of >0.5". 6z RGEM/NAM/GFS all on board with a good drink of water.Gbbs FTw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Gbbs FTw So what is the over/under for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 So what is the over/under for you? 0.01? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Upton's got an inch for us on the south coast...GFS and NAM at 6z are even wetter-2-3 inches That's one of the reasons why I hate how the NWS puts out those deterministic rain forecasts so far out. Yesterday afternoon OKX had like 1.3" for New Haven. While that's certainly possible - I'd say a reasonable range of possible QPF was 0.25"-1.75". Not sure how a super low confidence 1.3" does anyone any good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Gbbs FTw It would be nice if you posted your own thoughts once in a while. I notice how when something gets posted here about a model run you run onto Twitter and post about it like it was your own interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 It would be nice if you posted your own thoughts once in a while. I notice how when something gets posted here about a model run you run onto Twitter and post about it like it was your own interpretation. Last time he posted his own thoughts, he lost Yankee tickets to some poster from the NYC forum...he's probably better off the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Gibbs is likely referring to the Boston area which makes sense given the modeling-sharp cutoff up that way. RI/CT/SE MA will get a good drink for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Gibbs is likely referring to the Boston area which makes sense given the modeling-sharp cutoff up that way. RI/CT/SE MA will get a good drink for sure. I still wouldn't rule out a more limited event like the Euro shows. Not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Last time he posted his own thoughts, he lost Yankee tickets to some poster from the NYC forum...he's probably better off the other way. lol true story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Might have to take the under on MOS, especially if we get precip starting fairly early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 So what is the over/under for you?He says N CT stays dry as stout HP shunts everything south. I say .30 or under here. You've got over . Good luck . 12z runs will seal deal either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Gibbs is likely referring to the Boston area which makes sense given the modeling-sharp cutoff up that way. RI/CT/SE MA will get a good drink for sure.Stop acting like you know it all. Guess what.. You don't. And you don't know Shabbs and that's not what he's thinking. You lose 3x. Not a good start to your day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 He says N CT stays dry as stout HP shunts everything south. I say .30 or under here. You've got over . Good luck . 12z runs will seal deal either way LOL I never said a number, but sure...that's reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 It would be nice if you posted your own thoughts once in a while. I notice how when something gets posted here about a model run you run onto Twitter and post about it like it was your own interpretation.I always post my own thoughts. Then I post others since the people of the world who are afraid of or don't understand social media like Will for example ,can see what others are thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Stop acting like you know it all. Guess what.. You don't. And you don't know Shabbs and that's not what he's thinking. You lose 3x. Not a good start to your day LOL-maybe you should take your own advice. It's a discussion thread, I'm just discussing the possibilites along with everyone else. Grow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 I always post my own thoughts. Then I post others since the people of the world who are afraid of or don't understand social media like Will for example ,can see what others are thinking Are you for real dude? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Gonna be a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 This is really setting the stage for my winter meltdowns. lol, They are already correcting back to the SE close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Are you for real dude? LOL Apparently making over 100,000 posts on weather forums over the past decade means I'm "afraid" of social media. Or, you know, perhaps I find one venue to post my thoughts as enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Gonna be a great winter. It's starting early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Apparently making over 100,000 posts on weather forums over the past decade means I'm "afraid" of social media. Or, you know, perhaps I find one venue to post my thoughts as enough. You don't need your honest thoughts getting lost in all the delusional ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Models all have a good TROWAL and deformation zone making it past the pike. I find it hard to believe there would be nothing north of the pike with that look. Good theta-e advection at 850 and 700...that would probably mean steadier rains make it to Rt 2 it seems. At least as progged now. It's not your typical summertime convective blob driven by only low level convergence. It has some advective processes to help broaden the shield a bit. I suppose the 12z runs could crush it more south, but if they do..it's not because of high pressure, it's more a function of the trough north of Maine and having the mid level flow squeeze this south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Models all have a good TROWAL and deformation zone making it past the pike. I find it hard to believe there would be nothing north of the pike with that look. Good theta-e advection at 850 and 700...that would probably mean steadier rains make it to Rt 2 it seems. At least as progged now. It's not your typical summertime convective blob driven by only low level convergence. It has some advective processes to help broaden the shield a bit. I suppose the 12z runs could crush it more south, but if they do..it's not because of high pressure, it's more a function of the trough north of Maine and having the mid level flow squeeze this south and east. Agree. The surface high has squeezed pretty far east in fact, it's not as though the low is trying to work its way right into the teeth of it. Yesterday at this time I was thinking the typical sharp latitudinal cut off somewhere in MA and slide east, now not so sure that's how it's going to play out. A couple NE -> SW oriented bands may be in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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