September Discusssion--winter bound or bust

[CoastalWx]

Seems like a lot of spread and better chances that stays south of New Eng

 

Agree. The euro op has a nor'easter. Doubt it.

[CoastalWx]

Weeklies keep the Aleutian low around through the 4 weeks so that's good.

[dryslot]

Weeklies keep the Aleutian low around through the 4 weeks so that's good.

 

Nice

[Damage In Tolland]

Agree. The euro op has a nor'easter. Doubt it.

Some said we just had  a nor'easter

[CoastalWx]

Some said we just had a nor'easter

I'm talking about next week. Ensembles have it more SE.

[ORH_wxman]

The Aleutian low on the ensembles for the first 7-10 days of October is a great sign. That thing is a beast. Let's hope it holds because if it does then it's a very positive sign for winter.

[dryslot]

Can't see the ensembles but the op has it outside the BM

[HimoorWx]

Looks like low tide

Unfortunately, the tide didn't come back in.

[dryslot]

Unfortunately, the tide didn't come back in.

 

Yeah, That does not look very good at all

[ApacheTrout]

That added comment about how many people affected by drought or in the severe "bullseye" as the media calls it, is such a hype tool.I

I thought so too.  It reminded me of the times this year that NBC said millions bracing for severe weather, as if they were all hunkered down in their bathtubs, covered by mattresses, or in their darkened cellars, braving quick peaks out the curtained basement windows.  In reality, millions went about their day with nary a look at the sky.

 

Sure, many might be affected, but it's one thing to be a farmer watching her crop wither and an entirely different thing to be an accountant in the suburbs who can't water his lawn during the night but not during the day.  I have a feeling there's a lot more of the latter than the former.

[CT Rain]

I'm talking about next week. Ensembles have it more SE.

 

Decent ensemble signal for some precip though. Looks like 25% of members have >0.25" for most of SNE. Not terrible for 5+ days out. 

[CapturedNature]

I have no clue how you've had that much rain this month.

 

I had .66 on Sunday and .22 from the event earlier in the month and .13 overnight and that's it

 

1.01 MTD

 

You must have had a t-storm or 2 that missed Tolland

 

I use a standard 4" rain gauge.  I think your gauge is under reporting and I've suggested calibrating it or validating its siting but that's up to you.  I know my online gauge under reports.  It's only recorded 1.76" so far this month.

 

Here's the precip I've recorded this month.  You can compare it with yours and see where the differences are:

 

9/1 0.40

9/3 0.46

9/7 0.07

9/14 0.25

9/17 0.05

9/20 0.73

9/22 0.19

9/26 0.14

 

BTW, how much did you record last night?

[Damage In Tolland]

I use a standard 4" rain gauge.  I think your gauge is under reporting and I've suggested calibrating it or validating its siting but that's up to you.  I know my online gauge under reports.  It's only recorded 1.76" so far this month.

 

Here's the precip I've recorded this month.  You can compare it with yours and see where the differences are:

 

9/1 0.40

9/3 0.46

9/7 0.07

9/14 0.25

9/17 0.05

9/20 0.73

9/22 0.19

9/26 0.14

 

BTW, how much did you record last night?

My gauge is not under recording. It's always almost dead nuts on with the other Tolland sites on Wunderground..I had .13 last night. You have a few events there in early Sept that I got 0 from. You had rain on the the 22nd? It was a sunny day

[CapturedNature]

My gauge is not under recording. It's always almost dead nuts on with the other Tolland sites on Wunderground..I had .13 last night. You have a few events there in early Sept that I got 0 from. You had rain on the the 22nd? It was a sunny day

 

FWIW, the other sites are probably using the same gauge as you.  I do know that in the last event you were way under what everyone around you recorded but you can take it how you want.

 

Last night is a good example though of what I'm saying about calibration.  You might have had 0.14" but your gauge only reported 0.13".  Who knows....

 

As for the 22nd, I record 0700-0700 so that might have fallen on the 21st but it gets recorded on the 22nd.

[Damage In Tolland]

FWIW, the other sites are probably using the same gauge as you. I do know that in the last event you were way under what everyone around you recorded but you can take it how you want.

Last night is a good example though of what I'm saying about calibration. You might have had 0.14" but your gauge only reported 0.13". Who knows....

As for the 22nd, I record 0700-0700 so that might have fallen on the 21st but it gets recorded on the 22nd.

I had .66 and you had .73,Lol

[CoastalWx]

Decent ensemble signal for some precip though. Looks like 25% of members have >0.25" for most of SNE. Not terrible for 5+ days out.

That's interesting because it didn't look impressive on the mean in terms of MSLP. I didn't look at the probs though.

[CT Rain]

My gauge is not under recording. It's always almost dead nuts on with the other Tolland sites on Wunderground..I had .13 last night. You have a few events there in early Sept that I got 0 from. You had rain on the the 22nd? It was a sunny day

 

Your rain gauge is one the roof though, right? With all the trees in Tolland and most of the wunderground sites in town in similar setups I could see all of you underreporting a bit. 

[MainePhotog]

FWIW, the other sites are probably using the same gauge as you.  I do know that in the last event you were way under what everyone around you recorded but you can take it how you want.

 

Last night is a good example though of what I'm saying about calibration.  You might have had 0.14" but your gauge only reported 0.13".  Who knows....

 

As for the 22nd, I record 0700-0700 so that might have fallen on the 21st but it gets recorded on the 22nd.

 

I have the 4" Stratus guage for CoCoRaHS reporting. I also have the Davis Vantage Pro 2 tipping bucket rain guage. Both guages are within 20 feet of each other. The Davis always under reports rainfall compared to the 4" Stratus, sometimes by as much as 0.05". Both are in the open and sitted per requirements. There are adjustment screws under the Davis tipping buckets, but I have never messed with them. I spoke to a few other CoCoRaHS volunteers in my area and they have the same results. Davis descrepancies range from 0.03" to 0.05".

[Damage In Tolland]

Your rain gauge is one the roof though, right? With all the trees in Tolland and most of the wunderground sites in town in similar setups I could see all of you underreporting a bit.

No, the anemometer is on the roof. The tipping bucket is out in the open on the tripod. Coventry had .14 last night. I had .13

[CapturedNature]

I had .66 and you had .73,Lol

 

Exactly.  A poster from Ellington had over 1" and there was a NW/SE gradient.  If he had 1" and I had 0.73", you should have been in that range.  I think your gauge is under reporting by about 10%.  At 10% you would have had .14 last night and that 0.66 would have been 0.73". 

 

You can take it how you want and I know that I received a few events that you did not so my total will be higher just because of that. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Exactly. A poster from Ellington had over 1" and there was a NW/SE gradient. If he had 1" and I had 0.73", you should have been in that range. I think your gauge is under reporting by about 10%. At 10% you would have had .14 last night and that 0.66 would have been 0.73".

You can take it how you want and I know that I received a few events that you did not so my total will be higher just because of that.

The past weekend event saw higher totals to our west and NW. BDL had 1.12 for example. Your are north of me and the heavier band was up that way on west. You may take it how you want, but could it be perhaps that yours is over reporting?

[CapturedNature]

I have the 4" Stratus guage for CoCoRaHS reporting. I also have the Davis Vantage Pro 2 tipping bucket rain guage. Both guages are within 20 feet of each other. The Davis always under reports rainfall compared to the 4" Stratus, sometimes by as much as 0.05". Both are in the open and sitted per requirements. There are adjustment screws under the Davis tipping buckets, but I have never messed with them. I spoke to a few other CoCoRaHS volunteers in my area and they have the same results. Davis descrepancies range from 0.03" to 0.05".

 

That's the one that I have.  I used to use the stainless 8" gauge when I was a coop and I felt that the 4" best correlates with that.

 

There is discussions on other weather forums for calibrating the Davis.  It involves putting a measured quantity of water through the gauge and then adjusting the screws that you mentioned.  It's funny that one of them mentions his gauge being off by 9.4%, lol.

[ORH_wxman]

The past weekend event saw higher totals to our west and NW. BDL had 1.12 for example. Your are north of me and the heavier band was up that way on west. You may take it how you want, but could it be perhaps that yours is over reporting?

 

 

You can ignore the evidence that your station under-reports....but the rest of us won't. It seems to be a widespread phenomenon for home weather station tipping buckets.

[Damage In Tolland]

You can ignore the evidence that your station under-reports....but the rest of us won't. It seems to be a widespread phenomenon for home weather station tipping buckets.

While others may choose to ignore that other equipment as been documented to over report

[CapturedNature]

The past weekend event saw higher totals to our west and NW. BDL had 1.12 for example. Your are north of me and the heavier band was up that way on west. You may take it how you want, but could it be perhaps that yours is over reporting?

 

LOL.  I calibrate mine along with my thermometers but again, I have no mechanical parts to wear or needing adjusting.

 

Take a look at a map.  If BDL had over an inch and Ellington, both almost due west of you and I had 0.73".  The amounts dropped off longitudinally and you are further west than I am.  If you extrapolate that, you would have had at least 0.73".

[ORH_wxman]

While others may choose to ignore that other equipment as been documented to over report

 

 

Where is this documentation?

 

I've heard of home tipping buckets underrporting but not heard of the standard rain gauges overreporting.

[Damage In Tolland]

So now I under report rain, over report snow amounts and Dewpoints , report too low temperatures..let's see if I can come up with falsified fog reports

[ORH_wxman]

So now I under report rain, over report snow amounts and Dewpoints , report too low temperatures..let's see if I can come up with falsified fog reports

 

 

I'm not sure why it is hard to grasp that home tipping buckets may underreport in the 5-10% range without more calibration.

 

You act like this is some conspiracy to call you a liar on the issue...when in fact it is just relaying a simple analysis on the equipment. Maybe the analysis of all those who claim it are wrong....but no need to start the "woe is me" rhetoric.

[CapturedNature]

So now I under report rain, over report snow amounts and Dewpoints , report too low temperatures..let's see if I can come up with falsified fog reports

 

I wouldn't say that YOU are under reporting but I suspect that the equipment is.

[CoastalWx]

So now I under report rain, over report snow amounts and Dewpoints , report too low temperatures..let's see if I can come up with falsified fog reports

True to all of that.