The_Doctor Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 SPC's going to need a new watch pretty soon. Don't even see an MD up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Impressive 79 degree dew point reported in Pontiac, IL Also, stuff starting to develop further to the south near St Joseph, MO. That'll push into some very unstable air (MLCAPE 4000-4500 j/kg) within the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The TDS is a little hard to detect at 0.5°, but it shows up at least up to 0.9° too. odd_winterset_tds.png so that is Patterson/ Bevington (south of Des Moines) ? I am seeing the rotational couplet next to Bevington. This could be an un-warned tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 85/76 now in the brook....impressive recovery rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Looks like there may be at least two tornadoes ongoing now E/NE of Winterset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Had one really nice gust but it's back to heavy rain and moderate winds. Some pea size hail now mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Anyone catch the LOT briefing and if so, summary please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 SPC's going to need a new watch pretty soon. Don't even see an MD up MD came out saying a watch would be needed downstream by 19z Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1215NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN...CENTRAL AND ERN IA/NWRN AND NRN IL/SRN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 373... VALID 301827Z - 302000Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 373 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING SWATHS OF STRONG WINDS...SOME SIGNIFICANT GUSTS POSSIBLE...PERSISTS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF WW 373 /IN IOWA/. THESE SVR THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH A NEW WATCH LIKELY NEEDED EAST OF WW 373 BY 19Z. STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WRN PART OF WW 373 SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WIND SHIFT /SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NLY/. DISCUSSION...COMPLEX STORM ORGANIZATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM WEBSTER/BOONE COUNTIES TO ADAIR COUNTY MOVING ESEWD AT 40-45 KT...WITH AT LEAST ONE SUPERCELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE NEAR DSM. ADDITIONAL STORM MERGERS HAVE OCCURRED IN HAMILTON/HARDIN AND STORY COUNTIES. THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY STRONGLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2500-4000 J PER KG/ WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-70 KT MAINTAINING STORM ORGANIZATION. SELY SURFACE WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THESE STORMS IS RESULTING IN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A TORNADO THREAT. CURRENT EWD TO ESEWD MOVEMENT OF THE CENTRAL IA STRONG-SEVERE STORMS SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT WW 373 BY 19Z. AIR MASS RECOVERY PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS ERN IA INTO NRN IL AND SRN WI GIVEN LIMITED CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING. INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDS ESEWD FROM THE ONGOING CENTRAL IA STORMS SUGGESTING A GENERAL ESEWD MOVEMENT MAY PERSIST. ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 06/30/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Anyone catch the LOT briefing and if so, summary please? Pretty general info, as should be expected... Heating and high dp's will lead to an unstable environment. Organizing complex of storms in C. IA is expected to race eastward and into the CWA this evening. All modes of severe wx possible, but he hit the sig wind threat hard. Threat along/west of McHenry-Pontiac from 3-6PM, then after 6PM to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Pretty general info, as should be expected... Heating and high dp's will lead to an unstable environment. Organizing complex of storms in C. IA is expected to race eastward and into the CWA this evening. All modes of severe wx possible, but he hit the sig wind threat hard. Threat along/west of McHenry-Pontiac from 3-6PM, then after 6PM to the east. Also, though not as exciting, they spent some time on the heavy rain threat. 3"/hr isolated rates I heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 MIW (Marshalltown) just gusted to 74mph. KMIW 301842Z AUTO 33050G64KT 10SM +TSRA SQ BKN014 BKN095 19/18 A2965 RMK AO2 PK WND 32064/1841 WSHFT 1824 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB26 TSB27 P0050 T01940183 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 foward movement picking up some and starting to see more of a traditional radar presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Instability is rather low on the DVN sounding, wind fields aren't that great either, although that should improve with the low approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 WW at some point this afternoon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Organization of the line seems to be going up. Actually looks like a line of storms rather than random supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Instability is rather low on the DVN sounding, wind fields aren't that great either, although that should improve with the low approaching. Yep, going to be a rapidly changing environment in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 WW at some point this afternoon.... Probably in the next thirty minutes considering there are already warnings outside of the current watch box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Development starting to get going in NW MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Northern part of the line near Traer is spinning up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 izzi update, quality as usual SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THISEVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. PRIMARY HAZARD APPEARS TO BE DAMAGINGWINDS...INCLUDING A THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY HIGH ENDDAMAGING WINDS...AND A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND EVEN TORNADOES ASWELL.OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND MOVED WELL OUT OF THE AREAWITH RAPIDLY ERODING DEBRIS CIRRUS CANOPY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONSOF THE OUTLOOK AREA. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS CONVECTIONHAS SURGED WELL SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EXTENDING NORTHWESTINTO SOUTHEAST IOWA. AIR MASS BEHIND THIS OUTFLOW OVER OUR AREA ISIN THE PROCESS OF QUICKLY RECOVERING. SEVERAL HOURS OF AT LEASTPARTIAL SUNSHINE APPEAR LIKELY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FORDESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ADDITION...LOW/MID LEVELWARM AIR ADVECTION IS TAKING PLACE WITH APPROXIMATELY 4C OF WARMINGHAVING TAKEN PLACE ON AT DVN IN THE PAST 6 HOURS BETWEEN THE 12Z AND18Z SOUNDINGS. THIS WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS IS RESULTING IN ACONSIDERABLE STEEPENING OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.THE STRONG WARMING BETWEEN 900-700MB HAS RESULTED IN A LOW LEVELINVERSION BASED NEAR 900MB WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING FOR AMODERATELY STRONG CAP OVER THE CWA. ANTICIPATE THIS CAP TO WEAKENWITH CONTINUED HEATING/SUNSHINE...THOUGH THE ABSENCE OF STRONGFOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OUT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING MCS WOULDSEEM TO SUGGEST A LOWER LIKELIHOOD OF DISCRETE CONVECTION DEVELOPINGAHEAD OF THE ORGANIZING MCS OVER CENTRAL IOWA. GIVEN SIGNS OFCONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE OVER CENTRAL IOWA ANDLIKELIHOOD OF COLD POOL DEVELOPING/EXPANDING IT SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLETHAT STORMS OVER IOWA NOW COULD MORPH INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATINGMCS/POSSIBLE DERECHO THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FORWARDPROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS IN EXCESS OF 50KT SUGGEST A VERY RAPIDSTORM MOTION IS POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WINDTHREAT.MODEL PROGGED WIND FIELDS ARE LIKELY BEING SKEWED BY POTENTIALLYERRONEOUS MASS FIELDS DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK/MODELS ATTEMPTINGTO RESOLVE CONVECTION. EVEN SO...SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FIELDS ARE MORETHAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT BOW ECHO/SUPERCELL STORMS. SHOULDDISCRETE STORMS FORM AHEAD OF THE BOW...SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREATMAY BE LIMITED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW AROUND 700MB...HOWEVERVERY PLAUSIBLE THAT MESO VORTICIES FORMING WITHIN THE BOW ECHO COULDRESULT IN BRIEF QLCS TORNADO TYPE THREAT.IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Critical Weather Day today. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/cwd/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 New TORNADO WATCH till 7pm...waiting for graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Traer tornado warning- as mentioned by andyhb, this seemed to spin up fast. Didn't Traer have a tornado warning last night? -104 kts storm relative velocity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (50%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Low (20%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (>95%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (60%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (90%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Mod (30%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 DISCUSSION...ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN CNTRL IA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY E INTO IL THROUGH LATEAFTN. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR BOTH ON THE NRN AND SRN FLANKS OF THE SQLN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR REAR-INFLOW JET DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED EVOLUTION INTO A DERECHO-PRODUCING MCS. QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW...STRENGTH OF WSWLY DEEP SHEAR...AND PRESENCE OF EXISTING EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO INCREASINGLY BROAD SWATHS OF DMGG WIND/HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 374 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 205 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WESTERN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS NORTHEAST MISSOURI SOUTHERN WISCONSIN * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL 700 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 85 MPH LIKELY WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ROCKFORD ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). DISCUSSION...ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN CNTRL IA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY E INTO IL THROUGH LATE AFTN. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR BOTH ON THE NRN AND SRN FLANKS OF THE SQLN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR REAR-INFLOW JET DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED EVOLUTION INTO A DERECHO-PRODUCING MCS. QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW...STRENGTH OF WSWLY DEEP SHEAR...AND PRESENCE OF EXISTING EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO INCREASINGLY BROAD SWATHS OF DMGG WIND/HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I wonder why they didn't take the watch all the way into the city yet. They're going to have to do it eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 88/79 at PNT same airmass is rapidly advecting into Chicago metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.