Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 Another thing to watch especially with such strong shear is if we get WAA wing supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Not really in our subforum but it's going to be soon MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1211NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0908 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NEB INTO SWRN IACONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372...VALID 301408Z - 301515ZTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372CONTINUES.SUMMARY...PARTS OF WW 372 IN ERN NEB INTO SWRN IA MAY NEED TO BEUPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH. CURRENT THINKING AT SPC INDICATEDCONCERN FOR A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN THE TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THEMORNING ACROSS THIS DISCUSSION AREA.DISCUSSION...MID-MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PER TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONSAND VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARYARCING ACROSS FAR SRN IA /FROM SRN WASHINGTON COUNTY TO LUCASCOUNTY...AND THEN NWWD TO POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY NEAR THE STORM THATPRODUCED GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AT 1306Z/. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOWPRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR BBW WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD TONEAR OMA. THESE TWO BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED WITHIN A W-E CORRIDOR OFVERY RICH MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/...VERYSTRONG INSTABILITY AND A VORTICITY RICH ENVIRONMENT. THE STORM INNERN NEB...NEAR 30 WSW SUX AT 1350Z...APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ALONG AWEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR OFK NEWD INTO NWRN IA...AND ISASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY COOLER...MORE STABLE AIR MASS.A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL/SRNNEB AND NRN KS WILL SPREAD EWD. ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINEDWITH A ZONE OF PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA WITHIN THE NOSE OF A 30 KTSSWLY LLJ SUGGESTS STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER ERN NEB INTOWRN IA. AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS COMBINED WITH SFC-1 KM SHEAR OF 30KT AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 260 M2/S2 PER OMA WSR-88D SUGGESTS STORMSFORMING AND/OR INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT AND IA OUTFLOW WILLHAVE A TORNADO POTENTIAL. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ATHREAT AS WELL...PETERS/CORFIDI.. 06/30/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 probably a bit too far north and slow but you get the idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 OFB has stopped the push south in IA but continues to push into C. IL It's definitely going to have the classic NW to SE orientation that tends to produce spin ups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 That line segment north of Albion, NE will likely be the main MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 That line segment north of Albion, NE will likely be the main MCS. Already tons of lightning. Need that boundary to begin lifting back north in IA soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Max MCS gust over under 85?over (kmh) under (kts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Max MCS gust over under 85?Over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Already tons of lightning. Need that boundary to begin lifting back north in IA soon. Galesburg cell doing work and isn't going anywhere, we'll have to wait until it pushes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 After watching the weather last night, and this morning, I figured that Moderate Risk area would move east enough to cover the Chicago area. Definitely going to keep an eye on this today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The severe thunderstorm watch has been replaced by a tornado watch in IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Well since you guys think there will be gusts over 85 do you think there will be a PDS severe watch? If not do you think it will be a normal severe watch or a tornado watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Well since you guys think there will be gusts over 85 do you think there will be a PDS severe watch? If not do you think it will be a normal severe watch or a tornado watch? Today should be straight-up tornado watches for most of the main risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 70/40 probs on the new Tor Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Cells in Shelby and Audubon Counties in IA are riding the boundary and will probably pose a significant tornado threat within the next hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 70/40 probs on the new Tor Watch Also 90/40 wind probs and 95/40 hail probs. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND N OFDIFFUSE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ROUGHLY WNW-ESE FROM E CNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL IA...AND S OF STRONGER/LWR THETA-E BOUNDARY LOCATED FARTHER N. ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SUSTAINED...MOIST SSW LOW-LVL FLOW AHEAD OF WEAK UPR IMPULSE NOW IN CNTRL NEB/NW KS...AND BY STRONG SFC HEATING S OF SRN-MOST BOUNDARY. GIVEN DEGREE OF BUOYANCY...40-50 KT 700-500 MB FLOW...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND TORNADOES. SOME POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BOW ECHO IN WRN PART OF WW. IF SUCH AN MCS WERE TO FORM...IT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND/HAIL THIS AFTN ESEWD INTO IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 Probably just going to leave here around 11:45 and drift west to near the IA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 That cell tracking towards Des Moines might be the one to watch. It's headed into the hatched 15% area and the environment will become more conductive with every minute it remains discrete like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Gotta admit I didn't expect to see so much cloudiness on satellite this morning though parts of IA and MO are clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 Gotta admit I didn't expect to see so much cloudiness on satellite this morning though parts of IA and MO are clear. Me either. But we'll see. RAP fcst via mesoanalysis really juice up eastern IA/nw IL by 20z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Latest HRRR runs really backed off on the instability over Illinois. It doesn't show that much in the way of storms either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Gotta admit I didn't expect to see so much cloudiness on satellite this morning though parts of IA and MO are clear. looping 2km visible on COD, you can just start to see the outflow boundary pull north in central IA with an increasing amount of clearing between the complexes. I think some of the far north extent might be in trouble (wisconsinwx) but it still looks good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 Latest HRRR runs really backed off on the instability over Illinois. It doesn't show that much in the way of storms either. *ALERT* Our last few HRRR runs on the COD site is data/runs from yesterday, just has the time stamp for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Something else to watch is that overall the RAP and HRRR are a little less bullish with dewpoints, which would have some impact on instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 *ALERT* Our last few HRRR runs on the COD site is data/runs from yesterday, just has the time stamp for today. yeah, the last valid HRRR run I can see is 8z and has a textbook MCS I think the persistent morning storms have taken the extreme instability off the table for far N. IL, especially NE IL and into WI but that's about it and it will still be plenty unstable. Plus, the well defined outflow boundary that will be draped across DVN and the western LOT cwa's will only enhance things further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 12z 4km NAM 10m winds. At the end of the scale (50+ KTS) in the first couple of images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 *ALERT* Our last few HRRR runs on the COD site is data/runs from yesterday, just has the time stamp for today. That makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Kirksville/Quincy/St Louis reporting full sun as of 10 am update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 yeah, the last valid HRRR run I can see is 8z and has a textbook MCS I think the persistent morning storms have taken the extreme instability off the table for far N. IL, especially NE IL and into WI but that's about it and it will still be plenty unstable. Plus, the well defined outflow boundary that will be draped across DVN and the western LOT cwa's will only enhance things further. do not like how quickly the anvil from the west of DSM storm is quickly overspreading that area though. The boundary just east of it in the clearing is now slowly lifting north. Not yet though over extreme SE IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 do not like how quickly the anvil from the west of DSM storm is quickly overspreading that area though. The boundary just east of it in the clearing is now slowly lifting north. Not yet though over extreme SE IA. yeah, writing is on the wall for far northern IL but most of the mod risk, especially south looks gtg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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