CHI_Weather Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Storms are finally hitting Chicago. Storms are very noisy with a lot of rain; but they are weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 It's like someone left the garden hose on it just keeps back building off Davenport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 everything looks on track so far today, organized storm complex weakening and pulling east and convection in IA doesn't have much of a cold pool and shouldn't be an issue. I'm a little surprised how far south the mod extends but then again, the NMM would agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 IA activity definitely festered longer than I had thought and new activity is firing in eastern NE FWIW the HRRR appears to have a decent/good handle with ongoing action and has a real deal MCS plowing across IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Hmmm...didn't expect to see the stuff in IA hanging around as long either. Very overcast and soupy. Will the sun even make an appearance today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Hmmm...didn't expect to see the stuff in IA hanging around as long either. Very overcast and soupy. Will the sun even make an appearance today? Tops are warming with the large complex across central IA and festering storms running south of I80 should start to decay as they lose llj support. We should see plenty of sun. What happens to the storms in E. NE is more of a wild card, wouldn't be shocked to see them survive and eventually form into the main MCS early this afternoon across IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 New day one moderate risk pushed east to include Chicago. Discussion also talks about increased threat for significant tornadoes in IA. ACUS01 KWNS 301253 SWODY1 SPC AC 301252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014 VALID 301300Z - 011200Z ..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL...SRN AND ERN IA NRN MO...CENTRAL/NRN IL...EXTREME SRN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM TX PANHANDLE TO LOWER MI AND INDIANA... ..SUMMARY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CORN BELT AND MIDWEST. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. ..SYNOPSIS IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONE NOW LOCATED OVER MB/ONT BORDER IS FCST TO FILL SLOWLY AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS NORTHERNMOST REACHES OF ONT THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. SYNOPTIC-SCALE RIDGE IS FCST TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ONSHORE PAC NW TODAY AND ACROSS INTERIOR NWRN STATES AND BC OVERNIGHT. IN BETWEEN THOSE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS APPARENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN/ERN MT. THIS PERTURBATION WILL AMPLIFY BUT RETAIN POSITIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS TODAY...TO NEAR DLH-VTN LINE BY 00Z. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN SHOULD PIVOT NEWD AND DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT...REACHING ERN PORTIONS LS AND UPPER MI BY 12Z. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED ON 11Z SFC CHART OVER WRN KS IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO MORE COHERENT SFC LOW DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS AND MOVE ENEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD NERN KS/NWRN MO...WHILE TRAILING BOUNDARY MOVES SWD OVER KS AS COLD FRONT. SAME FRONT ALSO WILL MOVE SEWD FROM NEB AND MN ACROSS MUCH OF IA THROUGH EVENING. DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD FROM MORNING POSITION OVER NERN NM AND ACROSS PORTIONS OK/TX PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. ..CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND LOWER MI REF SPC WWS 371-372 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST NEAR-TERM INFO ON CONVECTION FROM WRN NEB TO CENTRAL IA. EARLIER TSTMS OVER NRN/ERN IA HAVE PRODUCED PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT APPEARS TO FOCUS SVR POTENTIAL MORE TIGHTLY OVER IA...FOR MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN WITHIN MDT RISK AREA...AND WHICH ALSO INCREASES RISK OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL STILL IS LIKELY FROM ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BECOME ALIGNED CLOSE TO OR JUST RIGHTWARD OF MEAN FLOW...AND MAY BE REINFORCED LOCALLY BY CONVECTION NOW MOVING EWD OUT OF ERN NEB. ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE SUPERCELL ALONG OR JUST N OF THAT BOUNDARY MAY HAVE SUSTAINED ACCESS TO VORTICITY-RICH AND DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZED AIR WITH SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE 4000-5000 J/KG. SIMILARLY RICH MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WILL EXTEND SWD INTO PRECONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR...SUPPORTING RAPID GROWTH OF ANY FRONTAL CONVECTION. GREATEST JUXTAPOSITION OF STG BUOYANCY AND DEEP SHEAR THIS AFTN SHOULD BE OVER IA...ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH RELATED TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FARTHER E...AIR MASS WILL TAKE LONGER TO RECOVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION/OUTFLOW OVER SRN WI/NRN IL/SWRN LOWER MI AND VICINITY. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND AREAS OF AFTN HEATING SHOULD ENABLE THAT PROCESS...WITH WAA CONTINUING IN PRECONVECTIVE REGIME AFTER 00Z. AS SUCH...DAMAGING-WIND THREAT WILL EXTEND INTO THESE REGIONS DURING EVENING INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR RELATIVE MIN OVER COLD NEAR-SFC MARINE LAYER OF LM. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NEB/IA CONVECTION TO EVOLVE UPSCALE AND PRODUCE SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE -- PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH LATERAL/AREAL EXTENT TO CLASSIFY AS PROGRESSIVE DERECHO -- EWD AS FAR AS SWRN SHORES OF LM. DAMAGING WIND AND OCNL LARGE HAIL ALSO ARE LIKELY FROM SQUALL LINE EXTENDING SWWD ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS REMAINDER IL AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 pulled back TOR probs east of the river (which I agree with) but definitely looks to buy into the severe MCS right into the heart of chicagoland FWIW, i don't remember ever seeing such detailed lake michigan tracing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Max MCS gust over under 85? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Good call. Patches of blue sky overhead atm. Tops are warming with the large complex across central IA and festering storms running south of I80 should start to decay as they lose llj support. We should see plenty of sun. What happens to the storms in E. NE is more of a wild card, wouldn't be shocked to see them survive and eventually form into the main MCS early this afternoon across IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Max MCS gust over under 85? Going bold, but I am calling over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Going bold, but I am calling over. I set the over/under relatively high for 3 reasons -- progged instability/shear, textbook MCS signature on models, and history of reports even higher than that in the region....not that a bunch of 70-80 mph reports wouldn't be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Good call. Patches of blue sky overhead atm. it's still really early...not sure about 4-5k sbcape but 3k+ looks like a safe bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Today's as good of a day as any for a monster wind event. Go big or go home....I'll go over. If we don't get the nasty discrete cells, might as well have a classics MCS rock the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 NE activity isn't going to die and is already producing warnings. This is going to be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 This current activity in western ia and e ne isn't the main show is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 This current activity in western ia and e ne isn't the main show is it?It definitely will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 This current activity in western ia and e ne isn't the main show is it? I'm starting to think it will be. kai'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 It definitely will be. just waiting for what is left of the convection around galesburg to shiit the bed and then we can start a proper recovery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 FWIW, i don't remember ever seeing such detailed lake michigan tracingThey really need to stop doing that. Most of the time in these situations the highest gusts end up being reported over the lake, such as the H-D crib. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 This current activity in western ia and e ne isn't the main show is it? I think the question becomes if we see anything discrete before the monster mcs rolls though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Man... Cedar Rapids DEFINITELY had a close call to a MAJOR flash flood emergency. 4-6 inches of rain fell in that area in just 75 minutes! Didn't realize it was THAT bad until I checked the LSR this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 When everything congeals into and MCS and pushes into E. IA/N-C. IL later, no doubt you will want to be near that OFB...wherever it will be at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 When everything congeals into and MCS and pushes into E. IA/N-C. IL later, no doubt you will want to be near that OFB...wherever it will be at that time. RIP Cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 When everything congeals into and MCS and pushes into E. IA/N-C. IL later, no doubt you will want to be near that OFB...wherever it will be at that time. Boom. It should return back north once full destabilization begins and winds respond and strengthen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Over on Alek's wind gust call. Was really windy and wild early this morning. Woke up to multiple small branches and leaves littering my yard. 0.25" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 RIP Cyclone He might take offense Am liking this area for max potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 Max MCS gust over under 85? Over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 too many people taking the over, I should have gone higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 He might take offense Am liking this area for max potential I think the nastiest reports will be in DVN's cwa but things look solid here for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.