Brian5671 Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Our MCS or what is left of it is just starting to fire in Ontario now. Long night of radar watching ahead. I won't be staying up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 I won't be staying up.... I especially wont be staying up! if its at night and im on LI its almost an utter guarantee it'll be a snoozer HOWEVER I am somewhat optimistic about tomorrow's severe chances in the afternoon/evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 The line is looking pretty good up in Ontario. I'm slightly intrigued by what appears to be firing in western PA and NY on the latest scans. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=buf&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 According to upton we will most likely not see too many storms tomorrow. I guess something changed with the timing of the front atleast that's what upton disco says.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 I won't be staying up.... Big big GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 The line is looking pretty good up in Ontario. I'm slightly intrigued by what appears to be firing in western PA and NY on the latest scans. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=buf&loop=yes nice outflow east of Lake Erie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 99.9% of the time it never pans out..I doubt we see much more then some isolated boomers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 tomorrow's threat is pretty much dead. the models are way too stable now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 The Euro was never really bullish for us anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 The Euro was never really bullish for us anyway.i wish i could get euro soundings. where do you get euro cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 i wish i could get euro soundings. where do you get euro cape? Wunderground has it. But I was mostly referring to its less than enthusiastic rainfall forecasts which have been drier than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Threat over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 The storms over NW PA look pretty intense. There's even a tornado warning out on one of them. The HRRR continues to show the storms, albeit much weaker, making it across much of the area between 4-7z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Just like a snowstorm, we created a thread too early. Severe storms and snowstorms almost never work out when we create these threads so early. Well, at least we know a rainstorm will always work out! Now, I'm going to expect nothing, hoping we get a big outbreak out of nowhere, but that won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 This looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 This looks pretty good I agree. Needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I agree. Needs to be watched. Very unlikely it'll hold together. Maybe the northern portion of the line which seems to be more potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Posters in CT and MA are already reporting visible lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Middle of the Line is breaking up as it moves east. Looks like north and south of us will get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 You gotta love the line breaking up right over our region lol. I could see widespread storms with actual cold front on Thursday but they probably won't be severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 i wish i could get euro soundings. where do you get euro cape?AccuPro, EuroWx, and Wxbell EuroWx is the cheapest, but also has the lowest res Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 The severe threat for today and for the next few days is over I lol'ed. See im not all bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Sucks its over before its even started. Look on the bright side though! Some of our best severe weather has come when our forecasting outlets drop the ball and dont advertise anything major! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Rut roh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 09z SREF brings the activity in NW PA into most of NJ. Focuses on the I-78 corridor for the heaviest. It's at least 0.10"+ for all with 0.25"+ SW of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Latest SPC day 1 outlook nudged the slight risk east some. Now clips the western most sections of this region. NYC remains in the 5% risk for severe wind and hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Euro predicted rainfall for tonight with whatever convection comes through. Most of this looks to fall after sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Major change with the 12z NAM. Brings a nice complex through between 12z and 21z tomorrow. Large swath of 0.50"+ with 0.75"+ for Staten Island, Brooklyn, Monmouth County and the southern beaches of Nassau County. 4k version for special effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Not breaking balls...your timing doesnt match the NAMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Not breaking balls...your timing doesnt match the NAMs. The 4k and 12k are timed differently. Here is the 12k version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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