Jayhawkers Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 work computer isnt letting me put the quotes, if someone can put it in quotes, that would be awesome SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1125 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014 KSC089-123-141-183-NEC001-035-061-099-129-181-150500- /O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0145.000000T0000Z-140615T0500Z/ MITCHELL KS-SMITH KS-JEWELL KS-OSBORNE KS-KEARNEY NE-WEBSTER NE- ADAMS NE-CLAY NE-FRANKLIN NE-NUCKOLLS NE- 1125 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT FOR MITCHELL...EASTERN SMITH...JEWELL...NORTHEASTERN OSBORNE... EASTERN KEARNEY...WEBSTER...ADAMS...CLAY...EASTERN FRANKLIN AND NUCKOLLS COUNTIES... AT 1125 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HEARTWELL TO NEAR BLADEN TO 8 MILES WEST OF IONIA...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS. HAZARD...90 MPH WIND GUSTS AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. if they had such thing as PDS SVR TSTM warnings, this would definitely meet criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 15, 2014 Author Share Posted June 15, 2014 Monday still looks really impressive in NE/IA and perhaps extending north into MN and SD on the 00z GFS/NAM. Tuesday might not be bad either looking at the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 The affected WFO's have done a fantastic job today giving more than ample early warning... At least one county in advance of the storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 15, 2014 Author Share Posted June 15, 2014 decent Damn, what a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Yeah here's a new one so I guess that wasn't a mistake? AT 1151 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR INLAND TO NEAR HARDY TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUNTER...MOVING EAST AT 105 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Yeah I don't know about 115mph forward movement, that is probably not correct. I would say moving at 70mph is probably a reasonable judgment though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 The 105 MPH forward motion is not correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 They corrected it: AT 1203 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HARVARD TO BYRON TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF VICTOR... MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Monday still looks really impressive in NE/IA and perhaps extending north into MN and SD on the 00z GFS/NAM. Tuesday might not be bad either looking at the GFS. Yeah this looks very impressive. Moisture quality will (finally) be fantastic. 00z GFS forecast soundings show the cap eroding away by 21z over northwest Iowa, with explosive convection taking place. We should see at least a few large supercells blow up along that warm front, with over 5000j/kg cape feeding into them. The Sioux City/Storm Lake/Fort Dodge corridor continue to look fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 ill be going outside once the outflow gets closer to me (lincoln) and see if i can get some measurements although i dont see anything overly impressive on base velocity mode or storm velocity mode using GR3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 15, 2014 Author Share Posted June 15, 2014 Yeah this looks very impressive. Moisture quality will (finally) be fantastic. 00z GFS forecast soundings show the cap eroding away by 21z over northwest Iowa, with explosive convection taking place. We should see at least a few large supercells blow up along that warm front, with over 5000j/kg cape feeding into them. The Sioux City/Storm Lake/Fort Dodge corridor continue to look fantastic. Not only that, the low level shear is very strong even earlier on before the LLJ fully intensifies. The leftover mid level cold pool from the ULL that develops from today's trough in addition to the s/w trough passing through the region makes a world of difference in terms of cap strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 15, 2014 Author Share Posted June 15, 2014 30% hatched region added in D2 outlook, with some strong wording. You can see how the entire risk area is hatched, with basically any storms that develop being capable of sig svr given the parameter space. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF IA ERN NEB...SERN SD AND SRN MN... ..SUMMARY SEVERE WIND...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ..SYNOPSIS HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS INTO CANADA. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...RELATIVELY NEUTRAL SWLY FLOW WILL REMAIN...WITH PERHAPS A LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LATE IN THE DAY ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS. WITH LOW PRESSURE FROM CNTRL SD INTO WRN NEB/KS DEVELOPING...STRONG SLY SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL NWD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY E OF THE DRYLINE AND S OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SERN SD INTO SRN MN BY 00Z. ELSEWHERE...AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN TX. ..ERN SD/NEB INTO IA AND SRN MN RAPID MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION FROM ERN NEB INTO IA ALONG AND S OF A WARM FRONT. LIFT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY 00Z FROM SERN SD INTO WRN MN AND WRN IA. LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL ALSO EXIST. SUBTLE FORCING ALONG THE WARM FRONT LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS FORECAST...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE INITIATION ZONE WOULD CLEARLY FAVOR TORNADOES...POSSIBLY STRONG...AND VERY LARGE HAIL GIVEN A SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. IN ADDITION...STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST INTO E CNTRL NEB. THERE IS A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF ALL THREE MODES OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS MIGHT OCCUR. ..W TX STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS WRN TX WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE WELL-MIXED AIR FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT WEAK FLOW/SHEAR SUPPORTS ONLY AN ISOLATED DIURNAL THREAT. ..JEWELL.. 06/15/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Strongest gust so far 60-65mph. (Didn't last very long at all) hope that wasn't the main wind area the came through Sent from my LG-LS980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 15, 2014 Author Share Posted June 15, 2014 Velocities increasing with the segment west of Omaha. Fremont and the northern Omaha metro may be fixing to get smacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Huh we may have a Derecho here based on 90mph wind reports and numerous 60mph reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 I dont know what's going on but we're getting winds 45 to 55 miles per hour right now with guests to near 65. Sent from my LG-LS980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 15, 2014 Author Share Posted June 15, 2014 I dont know what's going on but we're getting winds 45 to 55 miles per hour right now with guests to near 65. Sent from my LG-LS980 Wake low/rear inflow jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Huh we may have a Derecho here based on 90mph wind reports and numerous 60mph reports KS.rad.gif It was a derecho, and a darn impressive one at that. Probably the most impressive meteorologically since 2009, given the extreme velocities involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 It was a derecho, and a darn impressive one at that. Probably the most impressive meteorologically since 2009, given the extreme velocities involved. Caught this screen grab last night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 as a bit of a note here, southern MN , including the south end of St Paul and Minneapolis, actually had some measurable wind damage yesterday from a collapsing line of storms that came in from the dakotas late morning and just went kaput just to the south and east of a line from MKT to MPX. gusts with the convective collapse were in the 50-60 range behind the decaying line of showers and t-storms, at least as measured in MKT, FCM, MSP, STP, and FBL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 15, 2014 Author Share Posted June 15, 2014 12z GFS looks like it also unzips part of the dryline in NE as well for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 12z GFS looks like it also unzips part of the dryline in NE as well for tomorrow. It definitely looks that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 15, 2014 Author Share Posted June 15, 2014 New D2 outlook. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1232 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014VALID 161200Z - 171200Z...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF ERN SD/ERN NEBEWD ACROSS SRN MN/MUCH OF IOWA INTO SWRN WI......SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL ANDTORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTAAND NEBRASKA EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ANDSOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERPORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS....SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT 12ZMONDAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVELHIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASINNORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES.AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THECENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A DRYLINE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THECENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE....ERN SD/NEB EASTWARD INTO IA/SRN MN AND SWRN WI...LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS RECOVERY FROM RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BEWELL UNDERWAY AT 12Z MONDAY...WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEW POINTSRETURNING TO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILLLIKELY MOVE EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEB/SD BORDER AS A WARMFRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. A DRYLINEWILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO WEST TX. AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVESNORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAYPROVIDING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AREEXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OFTHE SLIGHT RISK AREA AND MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST. IN THE PRESENCE OFMODERATE-STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KTS OFDEEP-LAYER SHEAR...INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS WILL LIKELY BESUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. STRONGLOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL SRH IN EXCESS OF250 M2/S2 IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...AND THE RISK OF STRONGTORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLYEVENING HOURS. WITH TIME...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SEVERE MCS WILL BEPOSSIBLE WITH AN INCREASED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IS POSSIBLE IN SUBSEQUENTOUTLOOKS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AS CONFIDENCEINCREASES IN THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND THE DETAILSREGARDING THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AND EVOLUTION....WEST TEXAS...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORTDAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BESPARSE IN THIS AREA...BUNTING.. 06/15/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 15, 2014 Author Share Posted June 15, 2014 18z NAM soundings are just insane near the SD/IA/NE border intersection at 18z and NW IA at 21z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Yeah sig tor and sup composite maxed out pretty much at 21z but lots of precip which worries me. Myself and Victor Gensini still thinking about heading out. Deciding tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 15, 2014 Author Share Posted June 15, 2014 Yeah sig tor and sup composite maxed out pretty much at 21z but lots of precip which worries me. Myself and Victor Gensini still thinking about heading out. Deciding tonight. The precip signature doesn't look that linear though, it more has the look of a cluster of supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 The precip signature doesn't look that linear though, it more has the look of a cluster of supercells. Which also can be a problem while chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Which also can be a problem while chasing. Really? Are you sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 As has been the case all year, model trends in the final stretch are not looking favorable for tomorrow, IMHO. Yesterday's runs had me increasingly excited about E NE and W IA during the afternoon and evening, and last night's 4 km NAM depicted prolific supercells developing within the reservoir of 4000-6000 J/kg SBCAPE and traversing that region. The trend today has been toward morning initiation right along the boundary in SD/MN, with storms growing upscale quickly and transforming the baroclinic zone from a nice late-season warm front to yet another outflow-reinforced, discontinuous density current surging south. This is eerily similar to what happened in NE on June 3, the HIGH risk day. Granted, I'm not dismissing the tornado potential with the activity along the boundary, even if it develops early in the day. But it would be yet another messy scenario with tempered likelihood of long-track, strong tornadoes. If convective initiation can manage to occur to the south away from any ongoing MCS during the late afternoon or evening, this still looks very volatile. But there isn't a lot of model support for that on today's guidance. I will note, though, that overall there's been a bit of a bias toward underforecasting convection in the Plains this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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