jcwxguy Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA 1033 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014 NEC109-155-161615- /O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-140616T1615Z/ SAUNDERS NE-LANCASTER NE- 1033 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL SAUNDERS AND NORTH CENTRAL LANCASTER COUNTIES... AT 1033 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VALPARAISO...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF LINCOLN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED HAIL 3 INCH HAIL IN RAYMOND...WHICH IS LARGER THAN BASEBALL SIZE. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Those storms E of OMA are looking increasingly surface-based, with low-level rotation slowly starting to increase. If I were in Omaha, I'd be nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Important point, and a true point. If you looks at sfc observations behind this current convection, there's very little, if any, effect from any sort of residual cold pool. Until an organized cold pool develops, this convection in and of itself bears very little consequence to what's going to happen later. Radar trends indicate that one-hourly precipitation in association with the multicellular cluster is decreasing, albeit slowly. I would agree that the dryline looks best just to be on the safe side, but I think that the threat farther NE looks increasingly like a "go" as rainfall continues to decrease. I expect some strong surface heating early this afternoon in parts of nern NE. Anyone who disagrees may feel free to correct me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM LBF...DDC...AND TOP SHOWED A VERY MOISTBOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWEST-100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF 14-15 G PERKG SURMOUNTED BY 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM. DIFFERENTIALADVECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEWD-MIGRATING 40-50 KT LLJ ANDSTRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW IN THE 700-500-MB LAYER WILL RESULT IN THEDEVELOPMENT OF A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC STRATIFICATION INTO THE MIDMO VALLEY TODAY WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000+ J/KG TOTHE S OF THE WARM FRONT.SEVERE TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING FROM THE VICINITY OF THEWARM FRONT OVER ERN SD SWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR OVER ERN NEB WITHTHIS ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING FORCED BY WAA ALONG THE LLJ AND FORCINGFOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVINGINTO THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. GIVEN THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF THEMODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE S/SW...EXPECT ASUBSET OF THESE STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES/ WITH THE RISK FORVERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGINGWINDS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SRN MN AND IA THROUGH THISAFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY INTO PARTS OF WI AND NRN IL THIS EVENINGINTO TONIGHT.OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOONFROM WRN SD TO N-CNTRL KS AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED BYTHE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN NEB. THE CO-LOCATION OF MODERATETO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH35-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FORSUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES...A COUPLE OFWHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. THE GREATEST TORNADO RISK MAYMATERIALIZE WITH ANY MATURE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACTWITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THE EARLY-DAY STORMS OVER ERNPARTS OF SD/NEB. SPC 1630Z D1 outlook keeps MDT Risk with 10% TOR, 45% wind, and 45% hail. The dryline looks to be the best bet for a significant tornado or two. Personally, I would have gone with 15% TOR as the cold pool doesn't look to be a significant player in the wake of the multicellular cluster in nern NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 SPC 1630Z D1 outlook keeps MDT Risk with 10% TOR, 30% wind, and 45% hail. The dryline looks to be the best bet for a significant tornado or two. 45% wind has been added to the forecast and the MDT was extended east some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 Instability rapidly building in behind ongoing storms in NE with 70s dews across the southern half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Instability rapidly building in behind ongoing storms in NE. Dumb question (just to make sure my estimates/expectations are reasonable): Do you personally expect an upgrade to 15% TOR by the 20Z D1 outlook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Does it really matter what the percentages are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Does it really matter what the percentages are? Some of us are betting on this stuff.... J/k, it doesn't really matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 sounds like first funnel of the day was just reported west of Mitchell whether you believe it or not is another story... Edit: Sheriff says he sees some scud but can't see any rotation. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Sure is nice to see that moisture quality finally isn't lacking. Some very beefy dews over Nebraska behind the other convection. Finally don't have to deal with 20-30 temp/dew spreads near the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Some of us are betting on this stuff.... J/k, it doesn't really matter. Interesting the HRRR keeps popping stuff in the western risk zone and killing it like an hour or three later. Wonder why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Interesting the HRRR keeps popping stuff in the western risk zone and killing it like an hour or three later. Wonder why. Over north central Nebraska? That stuff looks to be behind the dry line and there probably isn't enough buoyancy and lift to keep it going compared to the stuff that looks to fire on the dry line and east of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Tornado Watch coming out soon for NW IA, SW MN, E SD. Sounds like part of it will be an upgrade to the current SVR Watch. Edit: Product out now. Just MN and IA counties. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Interesting the HRRR keeps popping stuff in the western risk zone and killing it like an hour or three later. Wonder why. HRRR also appears to rapidly diminish instability/ CAPE after initiation of those storms... That'd be my best guess as to why those storms collapse after about 1-2 hours. Don't appear to be behind the DL imo. EDIT: At least diminish the instability where the storms are located, but not so much to the NE and E and Sfc-based CIN also ramps up A LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 HRRR also appears to rapidly diminish instability/ CAPE after initiation of those storms... That'd be my best guess as to why those storms collapse after about 1-2 hours. Don't appear to be behind the DL imo. If he is talking about north central Nebraska then it is behind the dryline... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 If he is talking about north central Nebraska then it is behind the dryline... HRRR initiates in east-central Nebraska... EDIT: I believe he was talking about what it develops in EC NE not NC NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 The three discrete cells in W IA are looking pretty good and the tops on the one near Mapleton are going up fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 HRRR initiates in east-central Nebraska... EDIT: I believe he was talking about what it develops in EC NE not NC NE. The 15z HRRR did not have a good handle at all with the convection currently ongoing moving into western IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 HRRR initiates in east-central Nebraska... EDIT: I believe he was talking about what it develops in EC NE not NC NE. 15z had like one or two behind the dry line but most of the activity in NE doesn't last long on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Wow, the cellular line actually broke into discrete cells, any chance of organized rotation from the W IA storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 15z had like one or two behind the dry line but most of the activity in NE doesn't last long on that run. Yeah I am not buying the stuff on the dryline falling apart like it shows and even at face value there is a 6 hour window where the dryline stuff maintains itself nicely, it isn't until after 03z that it is choked off by SBCIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Pretty good probs on the new TOR watch... 60/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 That storm NE of Omaha is looking good, beginning to develop an appendage on reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricHaley Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 That storm NE of Omaha is looking good, beginning to develop an appendage on reflectivity. Looks like it has potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 That storm NE of Omaha is looking good, beginning to develop an appendage on reflectivity. Plus the environment these storms will be in for a few hours hours is going to be pretty favorable. At least if the SRH and SHR keeps shifting further east along with the current storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 Looks like it has potential... It and the one NE of Mapleton have my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Are storms supposed to develop further west or are we looking at our players for the aftn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 In the longer term I'd watch the cells coming north out of KS near Superior. Effective sig tor up to 10, CAPE near 5000, rich moisture and strong helicity are signs that we may have a very active afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 In the longer term I'd watch the cells coming north out of KS near Superior. Effective sig tor up to 10, CAPE near 5000, rich moisture and strong helicity are signs that we may have a very active afternoon and evening. There's nothing on the satellite... those returns near Superior are probably associated with chaff or ACCAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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