Wonkis Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1254 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT WED JUL 02 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA/NJ/SERN NY INCLUDING PARTS OF LONG ISLAND/CT/RI/MA AND SRN NH CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 021645Z - 021745Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND SWD TO NJ...SERN PA AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. DISCUSSION...STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AROUND NOON IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FROM SERN PA AND NJ NWD TO NH. THIS HEATING OCCURRING WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT /PW VALUES OF 1.7 TO NEAR 2 INCHES/ HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO NEW ENGLAND. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM WEST TO EAST AND BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 07/02/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Tornado warning in NYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Rumbles--from the cell that seems to be forming to my south maybe??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 The Berks are primed for a few Tor's today..Maybe a Great Barrington special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 The Berks are primed for a few Tor's today..Maybe a Great Barrington special We should go chasing...pick me up from work at 3:25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Quickly clouded up with the cell forming just to my south. Let's see if it builds. Rumbles continuing. 83.2/75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 1st 90's of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Winds are out of the SE and backed. That's a recipe for TOR's in the valley's. Sort of the same kind of deal the Springfield TOR had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Winds are out of the SE and backed. That's a recipe for TOR's in the valley's. Sort of the same kind of deal the Springfield TOR had Probably about 2-4 EF3s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 The Berks are primed for a few Tor's today..Maybe a Great Barrington special Winds are out of the SE and backed. That's a recipe for TOR's in the valley's. Sort of the same kind of deal the Springfield TOR had The board missed you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Thanks.had rumbles for the past hour or so. Real compact cells that aren't moving fast. whoever gets there may get a ton of rain. They're also popping up quite quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Watches out west of a line from BOS to PVD to GON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Some rain and rumbles--nothing too exciting at this point as I may get shafted in the 7-10 split. 80.6/74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Its on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Its on WWUS40 KWNS 021727WWP6SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0386NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1221 PM CDT WED JUL 02 2014WS 0386PROBABILITY TABLE:PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20%PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : <02%PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 70%PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 10%PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 40%PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05%PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%&&ATTRIBUTE TABLE:MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.0MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24030PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO&&FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH ANDWATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Good luck for folks in the watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 meh east of the ct river valley .. very little shear despite modest CAPE and ok mid-lvl lapse rates. factor in storm motion and the fact storms will approach the ct river valley by ~ 22z - 0z combined with loss of diurnal instability = meh hudson valley / berkshires on the other hand look to rock with decent shear + closer to a forcing mechanism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Hail probs seem low in the watch and not really in step with the 30% contour in the convective outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Probably about 2-4 EF3s. And 5 or 6 Scud and Fakenadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 On the way back to WeHa now and done with work at 3:15! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Some heavy rains at the moment knocking the temp down, humidity continues. 78.1/74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Looking like a SVR fail up this way. NH/ME look to have a better shot now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Interesting to see the winds picking up after the rain has started. RN++, lots of thunder, wind. 75.8/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Looking like a SVR fail up this way. NH/ME look to have a better shot now. It could get rather nasty later with all that convection firing in SE NY heading NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Seats second row behind home plate tonight.. wouldn't complain if Fenway missed out on the action... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 HHH down the tubes. 73.3/69 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 That cell west of ALB is packing a serious punch of wind.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Jesus--just had a strike right outside......goose bumps and tingle. I wonder what got hit. 71.7/68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 We'd need outflow to get anything into bos metro. We are well capped and these s winds aren't a good wind direction for us, ever. Easy to see where cu is being developed and where it isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Seats second row behind home plate tonight.. wouldn't complain if Fenway missed out on the action...dugout box seats? Nice! screw job here so far, surrounded by storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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