NNE Spring

[OceanStWx]

Well social media has certainly made it a more honest trade in general...I mean prior to that marketing (goes for any product in any industry) could get away with just about anything. Now, social media will call you out immediately if a consumer feels they were screwed...ie a ski area can't say it's snowing if it's raining out. If it's raining and you don't say it's raining, Facebook and Twitter become your enemies.

I'd say for you guys at a NWS position, social media makes the ski area totals more reliable...you know they are fighting a stigma of inaccuracy and they certainly don't want to spend the day dealing with the aftermath of a botched report. That's the reason I take so many pictures...primarily for insurance against doubters haha.

 

As a for instance, I find Sugarloaf tends to report a single number total, whereas Sunday River is more likely to report a range. I tend to feel better about a single number report than a range (but I realize Sunday River has more territory it covers too).

[ORH_wxman]

Saddleback  claims 200

http://www.saddlebackmaine.com/our-snow-is-better

 

 

I couldn't find anything on that page, but this section claims 225".

 

 

http://www.saddlebackmaine.com/mountain-stats-maine

 

 

 

That's actually a number that sounds closer to what I would have guessed for Near the summit of Sugarloaf.

[OceanStWx]

I couldn't find anything on that page, but this section claims 225".

 

 

http://www.saddlebackmaine.com/mountain-stats-maine

 

 

 

That's actually a number that sounds closer to what I would have guessed for Near the summit of Sugarloaf.

 

I feel like I need to investigate this. The culture up there seems like they wouldn't mind reporting their totals to us at all.

[ORH_wxman]

I feel like I need to investigate this. The culture up there seems like they wouldn't mind reporting their totals to us at all.

 

 

Yeah I would think they would definitely report their totals to you guys. Maybe in the past during the pre-socialmedia era since they were so far north of PWM/Gray, they figured there was no easy way to do it or that it didn't really accomplish anything. But having their high snow totals out in the social media world might gain them a little extra business in Maine. I'd bet even a reasonable number of locals don't know how much more snow they get than near the coast. Of course all the regular skiers and snow riders do...but grabbing those extra few people who don't know is probably a good way to increase profit margins. Those people who typically ski only once or twice per years with their families.

 

Potentially an incentive for them to do it, and then NWS gains some solid data in an otherwise sparse region.

[tamarack]

I've never seen a list of ski area totals going back more than a few years around New England.

 

It would be interesting to look at their "reported totals" versus some of the coops. Like a list of a dozen or so ski resort totals going back 30-40 years. The Sugarloaf one that was posted further up definitely seems to have some inconsistencies in it when examining the data deeper. Like powderfreak said, for all we know, in 1965 some guy just eyeballed snow. Maybe they didn't even report every event. That doesn't make the data useless of course, but it does probably tell us to keep the error bars somewhat high when using it statistically.

 

Regardless, I would think it almost meteorologically impossible to get towns like Oquossoc, ME with more snow in a season than 3600 feet on the slope of Sugarloaf just to their southeast.

 

And Eustis, even closer plus 250' lower than Oquossoc, topped Sugarloaf twice.  (I know - posted that already.)

 

 

Records up in that region aren't the greatest of course. The Eustis Coop is riddled with missing data too. Rangeley is better overall but still not optimal...and the early part of their period in the 1960s/1970s is awful.

 

Eustis has decent (seemingly) records over the past 30 years, then another bunch of logical looking data covering winters 10-11 thru 47-48, though from a location 100' lower, only 15' above full pool on Flagstaff Lake.  Even the best "nearby" long term COOP (my opinion only), Farmington, with only a handful of missing data since 1/1/1893, includes glitches.  Looking at obs-time temps and also comparing to midnight-only stations, it's obvious that Farmington's obs time has several times switched between midnight and 7 AM.  (Would not affect snowfall totals, however.)  Their numbers for the 30s and 40s also appear to exaggerate that time of warmer wx; I think the location spent some decades in a more built-up and paved area than its current site, in a rural-character area a mile north of the downtown.  Some of the 1890s summertime heat records are out of line with later data as well (99/78 on 9/23/1895?? That's both their highest mean and highest minimum on record.)  The July 1911 triple-digit heat is well attested throughout NNE, however.

[ORH_wxman]

And Eustis, even closer plus 250' lower than Oquossoc, topped Sugarloaf twice.  (I know - posted that already.)

 

 

Records up in that region aren't the greatest of course. The Eustis Coop is riddled with missing data too. Rangeley is better overall but still not optimal...and the early part of their period in the 1960s/1970s is awful.

 

Eustis has decent (seemingly) records over the past 30 years, then another bunch of logical looking data covering winters 10-11 thru 47-48, though from a location 100' lower, only 15' above full pool on Flagstaff Lake.  Even the best "nearby" long term COOP (my opinion only), Farmington, with only a handful of missing data since 1/1/1893, includes glitches.  Looking at obs-time temps and also comparing to midnight-only stations, it's obvious that Farmington's obs time has several times switched between midnight and 7 AM.  (Would not affect snowfall totals, however.)  Their numbers for the 30s and 40s also appear to exaggerate that time of warmer wx; I think the location spent some decades in a more built-up and paved area than its current site, in a rural-character area a mile north of the downtown.  Some of the 1890s summertime heat records are out of line with later data as well (99/78 on 9/23/1895?? That's both their highest mean and highest minimum on record.)  The July 1911 triple-digit heat is well attested throughout NNE, however.

 

 

The 1911 heat has records all over NE...I know it is still the hottest temp ever recorded at ORH.

 

 

Yeah the Farmington coop is probably the best one for anywhere in the foothills to the east there in Maine. It is generally hard to find very good records in that region unlike a bit further southwest in the rest of the New England or even on the coast of Maine which seems to have more coops.

[OceanStWx]

Yeah I would think they would definitely report their totals to you guys. Maybe in the past during the pre-socialmedia era since they were so far north of PWM/Gray, they figured there was no easy way to do it or that it didn't really accomplish anything. But having their high snow totals out in the social media world might gain them a little extra business in Maine. I'd bet even a reasonable number of locals don't know how much more snow they get than near the coast. Of course all the regular skiers and snow riders do...but grabbing those extra few people who don't know is probably a good way to increase profit margins. Those people who typically ski only once or twice per years with their families.

 

Potentially an incentive for them to do it, and then NWS gains some solid data in an otherwise sparse region.

 

The big problem is that we are cutting COOPs not adding them. There is no budget for equipment and the like. So it would have to be a CoCoRaHS type thing if it was going to work.

[powderfreak]

As a for instance, I find Sugarloaf tends to report a single number total, whereas Sunday River is more likely to report a range. I tend to feel better about a single number report than a range (but I realize Sunday River has more territory it covers too).

See I dislike the one number report unless you know where it's coming from...and 99% of the time the one number reports are from the summit, or wherever the snowfall was highest (upper mountain). I always like the base-summit (upper mountain) range...as Tamarack and I were discussing, that elevational difference can be quite stark. For me as a skier the base to summit range makes the most sense (but I'd be curious what others think)...for one, I want to know how much snow I can expect when I pull into the parking lot, and I also want to know how much snow I will be skiing through in the upper mountain glades, haha.

Base-upper mountain spreads are also good in a lot of our upslope events when there can be a pretty decent difference (ie 3-7"), or in elevational events. Like if it's non-accumulating wet snow at the base, but 6" up at 3,000ft, I'll show 0-6".

When I report to NWS though, I usually only give the 1,500ft base number as that's all that's really relevant to them.

[tamarack]

Saddleback slopes face northwest, and potential upslope passes over a relatively low elevation corridor over Cupsuptic and Rangeley Lakes, with no 3000-footers to steal moisture.  I'd think it's location would catch more upslope than north-to-east facing areas like SR/SL, though only the yardstick knows for sure.  (And so far, it's not telling.)

 

July 1911 set the state records in all 3 NNE states.  Farmington's 104 was only 1F off Bridgton's mark, though the latter hit it twice that month, and Farmington also reached 102 3X during that 8-day period.  (They also hit 102 twice in the 1890s, but I'm suspicous due to meager supporting evidence.) 

 

Edit:  re. losing COOPs:  Sad to note that Long Falls Dam hasn't had any data since early December.  Hope that's not a permanent cessation.

[powderfreak]

The big problem is that we are cutting COOPs not adding them. There is no budget for equipment and the like. So it would have to be a CoCoRaHS type thing if it was going to work.

Well you could just start with them emailing or calling in snow totals...that's primarily what I do with BTV and it just helps round out the PNS and post-storm graphics and/or verifying warnings/advisories. Just let them know you guys would be curious to know their totals during storms as it would better the forecasts too. They know you are there...the main weather provider in the ski industry or at least the first place most serious skiers go is the NWS/NOAA. The AFD's and point and click, and recreational forecasts are utilized quite heavily at least here in the VT ski resorts from what I can tell.

[OceanStWx]

See I dislike the one number report unless you know where it's coming from...and 99% of the time the one number reports are from the summit, or wherever the snowfall was highest (upper mountain). I always like the base-summit (upper mountain) range...as Tamarack and I were discussing, that elevational difference can be quite stark. For me as a skier the base to summit range makes the most sense (but I'd be curious what others think)...for one, I want to know how much snow I can expect when I pull into the parking lot, and I also want to know how much snow I will be skiing through in the upper mountain glades, haha.

Base-upper mountain spreads are also good in a lot of our upslope events when there can be a pretty decent difference (ie 3-7"), or in elevational events. Like if it's non-accumulating wet snow at the base, but 6" up at 3,000ft, I'll show 0-6".

When I report to NWS though, I usually only give the 1,500ft base number as that's all that's really relevant to them.

 

In that respect the range makes sense, but I also don't know if the Sunday River Facebook posts are a base-upper mountain range or just a way to report a slightly higher total.

It's true that the base number is most relevant, but at the same time we do have grid points that can cover summit areas so knowing that number isn't so bad either. Just speaking anecdotally, the terrain influence of our guidance really drops off from MWN to Sugarloaf, when in reality they are probably much closer in conditions than we currently show.

[ORH_wxman]

After a bit of searching, Sugarloaf themselves show a 20 year average of 197".

 

http://sugarloaf.com/media-room/resort-stats

 

 

This makes a bit more sense than 170-175"...esp compared to the Saddlebrook number of 225". (which Tamarack already stated probably gets a bit more NW upslope than The Loaf)

 

 

Regardless...its always interesting trying to estimate snowfall in a data-scarce region with topography effects.

[OceanStWx]

Well you could just start with them emailing or calling in snow totals...that's primarily what I do with BTV and it just helps round out the PNS and post-storm graphics and/or verifying warnings/advisories. Just let them know you guys would be curious to know their totals during storms as it would better the forecasts too. They know you are there...the main weather provider in the ski industry or at least the first place most serious skiers go is the NWS/NOAA. The AFD's and point and click, and recreational forecasts are utilized quite heavily at least here in the VT ski resorts from what I can tell.

 

It's on my list for next winter. That corridor from Pittsburg through the western ME mountains is pretty data sparse.

 

As far as the REC forecasts go, we just have to be careful not to get too specific. Otherwise we tread into specialized forecast territory that crosses the public/private sector lines. BTV has done a good job with their mountain specific points.

[OceanStWx]

After a bit of searching, Sugarloaf themselves show a 20 year average of 197".

 

http://sugarloaf.com/media-room/resort-stats

 

 

This makes a bit more sense than 170-175"...esp compared to the Saddlebrook number of 225". (which Tamarack already stated probably gets a bit more NW upslope than The Loaf)

 

 

Regardless...its always interesting trying to estimate snowfall in a data-scarce region with topography effects.

 

If you assume a standard deviation somewhere between Farmington and MWN, that probably puts their really big/low seasons somewhere around 300/100".

 

[tamarack]

Using J.Spin's Loaf numbers, the past 20 years including 13-14 average 191". End the 20 at 09-10 and the avg is 196. 1990s avg was 213", thanks to 389" in 95-96 and no seasons under 140.

[powderfreak]

It's on my list for next winter. That corridor from Pittsburg through the western ME mountains is pretty data sparse.

As far as the REC forecasts go, we just have to be careful not to get too specific. Otherwise we tread into specialized forecast territory that crosses the public/private sector lines. BTV has done a good job with their mountain specific points.

Your final paragraph is interesting...you have limits of how specific you can forecast? Like you can't get too specific for an individual mountain or lake or something, but can do a broader overview?

Isn't the point and click idea to get the forecast as specific as possible for every little piece of terrain? I understand if you can't really discuss this though...or get too into details about public/private or internal policies.

[powderfreak]

Unfortunately looks like the weather claimed a 22-year old hiker the other day along the Long Trail near Mad River Glen. Sounds like hypothermia during that upslope rain event the other night where 0.5-0.75" fell with temps in the 30s above 2,000ft. Might be something else going on but he called for help, drenched and cold, but had gear for overnight camping and didn't use any of it.

http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/local/2014/05/06/hiker-found-dead-fayston-area-long-trail/8787085/

[Hitman]

Unfortunately looks like the weather claimed a 22-year old hiker the other day along the Long Trail near Mad River Glen. Sounds like hypothermia during that upslope rain event the other night where 0.5-0.75" fell with temps in the 30s above 2,000ft. Might be something else going on but he called for help, drenched and cold, but had gear for overnight camping and didn't use any of it.

http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/local/2014/05/06/hiker-found-dead-fayston-area-long-trail/8787085/

That's rough.  must be something else going on.  he couldnt have been that far from the app gap and the cell service is pretty good there.

[Ginx snewx]

I couldn't find anything on that page, but this section claims 225".

http://www.saddlebackmaine.com/mountain-stats-maine

That's actually a number that sounds closer to what I would have guessed for Near the summit of Sugarloaf.

yea this is where I saw 200 http://www.saddlebackmaine.com/the-mountain-rangeley-maine

[powderfreak]

That's rough. must be something else going on. he couldnt have been that far from the app gap and the cell service is pretty good there.

That's what I was thinking...like his mind state was altered or something. They did say the deep snow depth hampered search efforts which was why they ended up finding him via helicopter...I wonder if deep manky snow made it hard for him to move around, maybe how he lost a shoe? post hole hip deep and come up empty? Odd for sure, but sounds like hypothermia was the root cause.

[mreaves]

That's what I was thinking...like his mind state was altered or something. They did say the deep snow depth hampered search efforts which was why they ended up finding him via helicopter...I wonder if deep manky snow made it hard for him to move around, maybe how he lost a shoe? post hole hip deep and come up empty? Odd for sure, but sounds like hypothermia was the root cause.

WCAX reported that his pack was 70lbs so yo figure he must have been prepared. They also said that he called his parents and instead of calling the police they decided to search for him themselves. I guess they called police the next day. As a parent, I don't know if I could live with the feeling that I may have made a mistake that cost my son his life.

I thought hiking trails were closed until Memorial Day?

[mreaves]

Turned into a pretty summery day after the heavy rain this morning. Played in a golf tournament down in Brandon. Absolutely pouring buckets driving over Brandon Gap. We were delayed half an hour but once it stopped we never saw another drop. Car thermo read 78 on the way home.

[dendrite]

65F right now... Like a warm summer night.

[OceanStWx]

Your final paragraph is interesting...you have limits of how specific you can forecast? Like you can't get too specific for an individual mountain or lake or something, but can do a broader overview?

Isn't the point and click idea to get the forecast as specific as possible for every little piece of terrain? I understand if you can't really discuss this though...or get too into details about public/private or internal policies.

 

Sorry, checked out for the weekend a little early there. Basically it comes down to we can forecast for each individual grid point in our forecast area. So we can say how much snow the grid that covers Sugarloaf will get, but we can't tailor a forecast specifically for Sugarloaf.

 

We run into it all the time for the NASCAR race at Loudon. We can't go on TV and talk about the race forecast, but we can brief EMs on the race forecast, because the latter plays directly to public safety and the former can be done by a private forecast company.

[eekuasepinniW]

80.0

[dendrite]

80.0

wb

79.9

[Nittany88]

Sorry, checked out for the weekend a little early there. Basically it comes down to we can forecast for each individual grid point in our forecast area. So we can say how much snow the grid that covers Sugarloaf will get, but we can't tailor a forecast specifically for Sugarloaf.

 

We run into it all the time for the NASCAR race at Loudon. We can't go on TV and talk about the race forecast, but we can brief EMs on the race forecast, because the latter plays directly to public safety and the former can be done by a private forecast company.

 

I know the Green Bay office ran into a little predicament on their Facebook page with an NFL game there recently.

 

 

WCAX reported that his pack was 70lbs so yo figure he must have been prepared. They also said that he called his parents and instead of calling the police they decided to search for him themselves. I guess they called police the next day. As a parent, I don't know if I could live with the feeling that I may have made a mistake that cost my son his life.

I thought hiking trails were closed until Memorial Day?

 

"Closed"

[wxeyeNH]

wb

79.9

77.9F so far  what time are we expecting wind shift in the Lakes Region?.   What an amazing change in the foliage the past 3 days.  Everything just exploding.  Black flies just around the corner!   I can still see lots of snow on Ragged Mtn.

[dendrite]

77.9F so far  what time are we expecting wind shift in the Lakes Region?.   What an amazing change in the foliage the past 3 days.  Everything just exploding.  Black flies just around the corner!   I can still see lots of snow on Ragged Mtn.

We have black flies here. 81.6F so far here.

I thought MOS was going to be a little too high today, but it's been pretty much spot on. ASH is going to end up with a max about 19-20C higher than their 850s. Maybe the relative lack of foliage so far is helping out with sfc heating and mixing.

I don't think we really start dropping until midnight. I haven't looked at much yet though.

[MainePhotog]

68.7°F with a refreshing sea breeze.