canderson Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 This morning is awfully cool for yesterday being so oppressive. Don't see that change too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 This morning is awfully cool for yesterday being so oppressive. Don't see that change too often. i agree. I turned my air on last night about 8, i thought it was just brutal. Woke up this morning and it was really nice, slight breeze. it cooled off nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Today and tomorrow look beautiful before the humidity and warmth increases for the weekend with thunderstorm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Today and tomorrow look beautiful before the humidity and warmth increases for the weekend with thunderstorm chances. yeah, Saturday just in time for the Jimmy Buffet concert. It'll make tailgating fun.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Quoted from the ENSO Mega Thread in Weather Forecasting & Discussion. If we can squeak out a weak El Nino for the winter (maybe a high end weak/low en moderate?) I would feel excited heading into Winter 2014-2015. This 3.4 increase was very well predicted by the Euro weeklies a couple of weeks ago. Also, this is not surprising considering that the SOI continues within its second longest negative streak of the year by far. I think we will add at least a 24th -SOI day in a row tomorrow. The longest streak of 2014 is 25 days. We'll have a shot to tie or maybe even break that 25 day streak. Regardless, it appears we may finally have some +SOI's within a few days. http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soidatafiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt Edit: By the way, a 25-26 day -SOI streak during the last half of the year is not at all chickenfeed and therefore, is an indicator that El Nino (weak to possibly moderate peak) is favored for the upcoming fall/winter per that link that goes back to 1991. This is the kind of thing that makes following the SOI a valuable tool for predicting what's ahead for Nino 3.4 SST's. Edit #2: The just released Euro weeklies have Nino 3.4 remaining fairly steady over the next four weeks while it weakens 1+2 quite a bit. These two things, along with the current long -SOI streak, tell me that a west based weak Nino's chance continues to increase. If moderate were to have a higher chance than weak, I would have expected a bit more warming to be showing up on the weeklies. I'm now thinking that a weak Nino is most favored followed by a low end moderate and then followed by neutral positive. These same weeklies have the +PDO continuing although weakening somewhat during this period. I've already predicted a +PDO averaged this DJF (~80% chance based on current +PDO as well as historical stats). Getting a -NAO averaged over DJF may be the key as to whether or not we get an overall very cold eastern US winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 2, 2014 Author Share Posted September 2, 2014 Tornado Warning for Clearfield County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Tornado Warning for Clearfield County. A little excitement here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Decent hit of storms at Lineboro, MD. Storm followed me up to Jefferson before moving east into Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Interesting short term outlook from CTP for the area. Surprised, but it is indeed rather sultry out there right now with a temp of 87 in my backyard currently.... Now Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. Brief heavy downpours and gusty winds are likely with these storms. It will remain hot and muggy with heat indexes nearing 100 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Too bad we don't have a good kicker aloft, or else we'd be primed for a NE severe wx outbreak. First blue box out for NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 6, 2014 Author Share Posted September 6, 2014 Well that was a loud crack of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Well that was a loud crack of thunder. Yeah saw lightning as I heard thunder here at PSU. That same storm intensified after it hit our area and got warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 9, 2014 Author Share Posted September 9, 2014 After many days where lows struggled to fall to 65 or so...maybe highs in that vicinity this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 After many days where lows struggled to fall to 65 or so...maybe highs in that vicinity this weekend? high 40's for lows maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 This weather is phenomenal, I hope it stays like this for another week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 FYI, from the Mid Atlantic thread. Helpful to remember for winter. This is a work in progress..feel free to add and I will edit..times are approximate...if you have sources that are much faster, let us know..no model should be excluded other than tropical..part of being a model addict is looking at every single model run possible... 0z CMC ENS - 12:20am 0z Euro - 12:45am 3z SREF - 2:15am 0z Euro ENS - 2:40am 6z NAM - 2:45am 6z GFS - 4:20am 6z GEFS - 5:40am 6z RGEM - 3:15am 9z SREF - 8:15am 12z NAM - 8:45am 12z RGEM - 9:15am 12z GFS - 10:20am 12z CMC - 11:15am 12 UKMET - 11:40am 12 GEFS - 11:40am 12 CMC ENS - 12:20pm 12z Euro - 12:45pm 15z SREF - 2:15pm 12z Euro ENS - 2:40pm 18z NAM - 2:45pm 18z RGEM - 3:15pm 18z GFS - 4:20pm 18z GEFS - 5:40pm 21z SREF - 8:15pm 0z NAM - 8:45pm 0z RGEM - 9:15pm 0z GFS - 10:20pm 0z CMC- 11:15pm 0z UKMET - 11:40pm 0z GEFS - 11:40pm HRRR - every hour RAP - every hour Hi Res NAM - 10 minutes after NAM JMA?? Navgem? NAEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 13, 2014 Author Share Posted September 13, 2014 There's a chill in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Heading into the doldrums of fall, as if we weren't in a slow period anyway lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Heading into the doldrums of fall, as if we weren't in a slow period anyway lol. Fall might be the best weather of the year honestly. Might be boring, but give me 55-70 degrees all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 give me 55-70 degrees all year. As much of a summer lover as I am, I'd gladly take those temps all year if we didn't have to go through the snow and cold of winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Don't look now, but ENSO region 3.4 is starting to warm. If we can squeak out a weak El Nino with decent blocking this could be a solid winter. I know statistically, a big winter in the snow department is unlikely and I am fine with that. Climo would be good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Don't look now, but ENSO region 3.4 is starting to warm. If we can squeak out a weak El Nino with decent blocking this could be a solid winter. I know statistically, a big winter in the snow department is unlikely and I am fine with that. Climo would be good enough for me. I think a weak El Nino (ONI somewhere between 0.5-1.0) is looking fairly likely. Obviously it always helps to have favorable blocking. Below are the snowfall accumulations at State College for the years where the NDJ ONI value was between 0.5 and 1.0 deg C (as well as 2013-2014 for comparison in dark green). The smoothed maroon curve is the average snowfall accumulation. As you can see, most of these winters were less snowy than average with two large positive outliers ('77-79 and '69-70). There's no good way of knowing whether this is a symptom of the small sample size or a legitimate bimodal distribution of snowfall, where some other factor occasionally comes into play to produce substantial yearly totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 We were in Norway for the past two weeks, came home Monday. Did it not rain at all here? Good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 We were in Norway for the past two weeks, came home Monday. Did it not rain at all here? Good grief. no, we had a good rain here on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 no, we had a good rain here on Saturday Yup Saturday was a good soaker, but this time of the year things crisp out fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Been in the low 40's a couple mornings this week. Was out to Clearfield yesterday and some of the trees are turning already out there. How soon before our first snow flurries? Couple weeks?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Ah, thanks guys. Leafs starting to begin the flip the past two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Missing summer...fall not really my thing. However, by the week after Thanksgiving model watching begins again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Speaking of which, CTP posted this to faschbuch a little while ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 19, 2014 Author Share Posted September 19, 2014 Murgo was discussing low 40s, even flirting with upper 30s tonight, but right now the dew point is hovering around 50. Is decoupling expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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