earthlight Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Out the last 25 members for example, 18 of them have significant snowfall in some part of the area, 10, arguably 12 of them have that significant snowfall across the entire area from essentially PHL to BOS with obviously some variation on exact solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Do they favor the coast, or is this area wide? Area Wide, plenty of members are tucked right into the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 FWIW, there are a number of 960's 15+ and several 950's 6+ and 3 940's on the individual members at 144 hours 940's - now THERE is a wow! have we ever been directly impacted by a 940 low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 940's - now THERE is a wow! have we ever been directly impacted by a 940 low? Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Feb 10 was one of the best 8 days out sub 970 low the entire time Thanks, that month was a little hectic for me so I didn't have much time to look at the models. The Euro really hit it out of the park last February from 120 hrs right down to storm time. 120 hr forecast verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Her name was Sandy. 940's - now THERE is a wow! have we ever been directly impacted by a 940 low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Bc it needs really good timing... a late phase is certainly possible with this storm. With that said, after looking at all the Euro products it's hard not to be a little excited Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The Euro and its ensembles do good with coastal storms. (Feb 12-14, 2014, Feb 2013, Dec 2010, Sandy) The Euro also locked onto Sandy very early as being a very powerful storm that would make a left turn into DE or NJ. It really didn't waver much until verification if I recall. And at the time we all thought the low pressures shown had to be overdone. 946mb low into Atlantic City is about as severe as it can get at this latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Sandy Should have been clearer, winter time regime I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Where do folks view the Euro ensemble individual members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Should have been clearer, winter time regime I meant. A met should clarify, but Dec 2010 was 972mb east of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I'll take 3-6 inches next week without hesitation. Now if 24-36 inches with 2.25 QPF is advertised, well it's a nice fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I honestly thought when the Euro initially showed such a powerful low hammering NJ with what turned out to be Sandy that it was a complete joke. The Euro had been known to show way too strong storms during hurricane season but when it didn't waver, well that was the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 When was the last time we saw a MSLP like this in Late March-Early April that was all snow for the coast? April 1997 comes to mind (but slightly inland for good snows), climo has been thrown off the roof lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 When was the last time we saw a MSLP like this in Late March-Early April that was all snow for the coast? April 1997 comes to mind (but slightly inland for good snows), climo has been thrown off the roof lately climo has had itself perforated by a machine gun since this is pretty much a February pattern. amazing in itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Should have been clearer, winter time regime I meant.1888 was most likely sub 970 at some point during its life. Maybe even sub 960Trying not to get to excited yet. Good times tracking to say the least on the way. Hopefully 3 times is a charm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 When was the last time we saw a MSLP like this in Late March-Early April that was all snow for the coast? April 1997 comes to mind (but slightly inland for good snows), climo has been thrown off the roof lately The last time that I can remember the models sniffing out a record deep low for late March or April from 6-8 days out was 4-15-07 but that was a warm storm. Thats when we broke April rainfall and pressure records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The last time that I can remember the models sniffing out a record deep low for late March or April from 6-8 days out was 4-15-07 but that was a warm storm. Thats when we broke April rainfall and pressure records. 969 mb right over NYC... that was about as much fun you can have with a non-snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Sub 960 blizzard would be insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I'll ask again, where do people access Euro ensemble individual members and mean? I could never find them on Weatherbell (just the low-res mean with very limited assortment of products) and I'd like to buy another month of some service to get through the last of the winter threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Sub 960 blizzard would be insane Even tastier in late March... This season has been pretty weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Sub 960 blizzard would be insane Man the weenies are out in full after the Euro came out lol. I really hope things verify as well as depicted but these are extremely rare events so I'm very cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 This storm would give climo a nice punch to the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I'll put it this way, is this "event" possibly the biggest of 2013-14 if it comes to fruition? No IMBY I know 1-36 inches, but duration, can it be a 24hr+ event or a 8-12 hr event? I love the 24 hr+ events that just drag on and refuse to leave and there is always another band coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 This storm would give climo a nice punch to the face. Climo has been repeatedly punched in the face the past five years in the Mid-Atlantic. Climo appears to be a lot less important than it used to. If this storm doesn't happen it will be because the phase doesn't come in time - not because it's the end of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Climo has been repeatedly punched in the face the past five years in the Mid-Atlantic. Climo appears to be a lot less important than it used to. If this storm doesn't happen it will be because the phase doesn't come in time - not because it's the end of March. think this lies in the pacific. if we can get cooperation there this may not be too far fetched here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Climo has been repeatedly punched in the face the past five years in the Mid-Atlantic. Climo appears to be a lot less important than it used to. If this storm doesn't happen it will be because the phase doesn't come in time - not because it's the end of March. Totally agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 BAD NEWS- 18z GFS is east GOOD NEWS- its the 18z GFS in all seriousness its east of 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Nogaps looks like a coastal hugger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 BAD NEWS- 18z GFS is east GOOD NEWS- its the 18z GFS in all seriousness its east of 12z GFS At the this range I really don't mind the gfs being east with what could amount to a mega bomb . Good old sandy will tell you that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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