IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Yeah it's a cliche but the UKMET is right about where you expect it to be if this is going to end up near the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 NO SNOW FOR YOU, ONE YEAR all kidding aside though im going to be siding with the EURO with this storm. The Miller A storms are almost the EURO's expertise IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Yep, look how fast and progressive the pattern is and the neutral tilt on the trough. That has nowhere to go but the boot out to sea. Yeah and I should have over 2' of snow by now if the other models were right 2-3 days away from each respective storm this month. Day 5-6 storms are a total crap shoot and far from the final solution. We should be happy they are not hits right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I'm not a fan of the 'boxing day' comparisons. NAO was close to -1 (if my memory serves me correct). The issue with that system nearly going OTS was the location of the upstream ridge- it was much further east than ideal for a big EC storm.That system had plenty of downstream ridging (unlike this system) to move north. With the progressive nature of the pattern this year, I really want to see the ridge over the Pacific Northwest begin to amp up over the next few days, and I think it will. We are going to want a really potent shortwave before this makes it to the EC, that way it will be able to pump up heights enough such that it will travel more meridionally and slow down for the interaction with the vorticity coming in behind it. I'm still strongly favoring southern and eastern sections of the forum with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I'm not a fan of the 'boxing day' comparisons. NAO was close to -1 (if my memory serves me correct). The issue with that system nearly going OTS was the location of the upstream ridge- it was much further east than ideal for a big EC storm.That system had plenty of downstream ridging (unlike this system) to move north. With the progressive nature of the pattern this year, I really want to see the ridge over the Pacific Northwest begin to amp up over the next few days, and I think it will. We are going to want a really potent shortwave before this makes it to the EC, that way it will be able to pump up heights enough such that it will travel more meridionally and slow down for the interaction with the vorticity coming in behind it. I'm still strongly favoring southern and eastern sections of the forum with this. Are comparisons to March 01' completely unfounded? BTW thanks for contributing to this forum. We really need more red taggers like you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 this from WPC ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...THE FCST REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR AN UNUSUALLY WINTRY PATTERNOVER THE CNTRL-ERN STATES DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A BROADAREA OF TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES REACHING 10-25F BELOW NORMAL BEFOREMODERATING BY DAY 7 THU. AT SOME LOCATIONS EXPECTED TEMPS WOULDBE CLOSER TO MID-JANUARY NORMALS... AND COMPOSITE ANALOGS CONTINUETO SHOW FAVORABLE COMPARISONS TO OTHER MID MARCH TO EARLY APRILCOLD EVENTS OVER RECENT DECADES. THIS COLD AIR WILL SUPPORT APERIOD OF WINTRY PCPN POTENTIAL FROM THE NRN/N-CNTRL PLAINS INTOTHE MID ATLC/NORTHEAST. AREAS FROM THE CNTRL APLCHNS/MID ATLCINTO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR EXPECTED WRN ATLC DEVELOPMENTTUE-WED FOR SNOW/STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. SMALL CHANGES IN TRACKWILL MAKE BIG DIFFS IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS AND ORIGIN OFSUPPORTING ENERGY ALOFT SUGGESTS IT MAY TAKE AT LEAST ANOTHER 2-3DAYS TO GAIN MORE CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF SYSTEM EVOLUTION.BEFORE THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 In reading through other blogs, it appears that an SSW event took place over the past ten days. Just trying to gage what influence this may have on the upcoming storm. My basic understanding is that an SSW event as model, may spilt the Polar Vortex. Would this not lead to more of a suppression of any STJ low? Leading ultimately to a cold, dry outlook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Yep, look how fast and progressive the pattern is and the neutral tilt on the trough. That has nowhere to go but the boot out to sea. Unlike the GGEM, the Pacific ULL is already over NW Coast on the UKMET and GFS at 144hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Our PV lobe is already visible on the Euro at 78 hours and looks sharper and more elongated at hr 84 than the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The PV on the Euro is in the same exact spot as 00z except the energy is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 At 96hrs the top of the ridge out west is sharper than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Looks like the ULL south of Alaska is a tick further northeast this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Western ridge spiking hour 108, very similar to 00z except that the ridge axis is less broad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The miss on Sunday is actually near the 50/50 position at hour 114. Low developing over the northern gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 This is developing a lot further west so far than 00z. Should end up looking closer to yesterday's 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Going to be much better than 00z. Trough is significantly more neutrally tilted and sharper as compared to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Low pressure off the SE Coast at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Hr 132 989 mod snow in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Big hit hour 132! Trying to pull a GGEM, but not quite as extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Trough negative tilt at hour 132! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Wow 960's heavy snow hr 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Big hit hour 138, 970'smb low 300 miles east of Ocean City, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The only thing that prevented this run from coming a hair further northwest is that it wasn't as aggressive with the backend energy as the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Big time hit for NYC, LI and Coastal NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Down to 972mb SE of the benchmark. Area getting brushed by the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 968mb 150 miles east of Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 NYC and immediate surrounding areas are 0.75"+. NW of 287 is 0.50"+. Southern NJ and eastern Long Island are 1.00"+ 1.75"+ kisses Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Gorgeous. Exactly what I wanted to see in terms of evolution in the mid and upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Gorgeous. Exactly what I wanted to see in terms of evolution in the mid and upper levels. If only it was faster with the last piece of energy rotating around the PV.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 If only it was faster with the last piece of energy rotating around the PV.... If it was, we'd be hearing about how it's not good to be in the jackpot at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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