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2014 Severe Storm season


downeastnc

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Just East of Fayetteville...

 

5 N Stedman [Cumberland Co, NC] PUBLIC reports TSTM WND DMG at 7:25 AM EDT -- MULTIPLE TREES SNAPPED...SOME DAMAGE TO A CAR...AND MINOR DAMAGE TO TWO HOMES ON ROYAL WILLIAMS ROAD. NWS SURVEY TEAM WILL MEET PROPERTY OWNER WED MORNING TO INVESTIGATE POSSIBLE TORNADO.

 

I believe it, im a little ways west of Fay, and that line of storms was very impressive.

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Crazy storm in Fay right now. I'm in class and we can't even hear the teacher over the rain and wind.

 

My chem teacher said this morning his car got damaged from the wind, and he had to take a phone call during class so I wonder if that is him ^^^^^ would be weird

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

258 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

...NWS RALEIGH CONFIRMS THAT A MICROBURST/STRAIGHT-LINE WIND

DAMAGE OCCURRED 4.25 MILES EAST OF EASTOVER IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY

NORTH CAROLINA...

LOCATION...4.25 MILES EAST OF EASTOVER IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY NORTH

CAROLINA

DATE...APRIL 15, 2014

ESTIMATED TIME...7:20 AM EDT

ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...60 TO 65 MPH

* FATALITIES...0

* INJURIES...0

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO

CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN

NWS STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH NC HAS CONFIRMED THAT A

MICROBURST/STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE OCCURRED 4.25 MILES EAST OF

EASTOVER IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA ON APRIL 15, 2014.

A STORM SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED THIS MORNING AT THE DAMAGE SITE.

DAMAGE INCLUDED SEVERAL TREES AND TREE BRANCHES THAT WERE SNAPPED

AND CARRIED DOWNWIND (IN A STRAIGHT-LINE FASHION) APPROXIMATELY 30

YARDS...ALONG WITH TWO TREES THAT WERE BLOWN OVER...IN THE SAME

DIRECTION. IN ADDITION...ONE MOBILE HOME SUSTAINED DAMAGE WHICH

INCLUDED SHINGLE REMOVAL ON THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE ROOF...SIDING

PEELED AWAY FROM THE FRAME...ONE BROKEN WINDOW AS A RESULT OF

DEBRIS BLOWN INTO IT...AND A PORTION OF THE BASE BLOCKS WHICH WERE

PUSHED OVER. A WINDOW OF A VEHICLE PARKED AT THE RESIDENCE WAS

SHATTERED AS A TREE BRANCH FLEW INTO IT. A NEIGHBORING HOME ALSO

HAD SOME MINOR SIDING DAMAGE. FINALLY...A CARPORT WAS UPLIFTED AND

CARRIED ACROSS THE ROAD...AND LANDED IN A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE

TREE DAMAGE...WHICH ALSO SUGGESTED STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE. THE

NATURE AND DEGREE OF DAMAGE SUGGESTED A MAXIMUM WIND GUST OF 60 TO

65 MPH.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT

WEATHER.GOV/RAH.

FOR REFERENCE...

A MICROBURST IS A CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT WITH AN AFFECTED OUTFLOW

AREA OF LESS THAN 2 1/2 MILES WIDE AND PEAK WINDS LASTING LESS

THAN 5 MINUTES. MICROBURSTS MAY INDUCE DANGEROUS

HORIZONTAL/VERTICAL WIND SHEARS...WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT

AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE AND CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. STRAIGHT-LINE

WINDS ARE GENERALLY ANY WIND THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH

ROTATION...USED MAINLY TO DIFFERENTIATE THEM FROM TORNADIC WINDS.

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Next Tuesday the European runs have been hinting at possible severe for the Carolinas. Day 8 is a crap shoot, but we need to discuss something on the severe thread. Weekend Plains system ejects into the Upper Midwest. New jet energy is forecast to come out of Texas, through the Tenn Valley Monday, and over the Carolinas Tuesday. Monday a new surface low develops in the Mississippi Valley but by Tuesday the Euro has it in the Midwest. GFS has it approaching the Carolinas, more bullish for severe. Both have southern jet stream energy over the region. Iff perfect progs, a big if 8 days out, Tuesday is worth watching in the Carolinas.

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Good point, Jeff. I was paying attention to 12z Euro thanks to that upcoming severe weather event in Plains, but that 12z run was a real eye opener now that Dixie Alley might come in play Monday/Tuesday with that secondary low forming in Southern Plains. We'll have to see where the models take that low if we want severe weather event in Carolinas, but 8 days is a long time away. At least it's something for this thread :)

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Next Tuesday the European runs have been hinting at possible severe for the Carolinas. Day 8 is a crap shoot, but we need to discuss something on the severe thread. Weekend Plains system ejects into the Upper Midwest. New jet energy is forecast to come out of Texas, through the Tenn Valley Monday, and over the Carolinas Tuesday. Monday a new surface low develops in the Mississippi Valley but by Tuesday the Euro has it in the Midwest. GFS has it approaching the Carolinas, more bullish for severe. Both have southern jet stream energy over the region. Iff perfect progs, a big if 8 days out, Tuesday is worth watching in the Carolinas.

:lol:  I just said something about this in the spring discussion thread  :lol:     The last few days of watching as the models turn, has piqued my interest for next week  ;)    

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This April has been unusually quiet for severe weather. I saw the other day that this April has had the lowest number of tornadoes for April in the past 60 years.

 

Looks like NC could see some storms Friday.

Also a threat of severe weather Tues of next week, something to watch. This Friday won't be much.

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Also a threat of severe weather Tues of next week, something to watch. This Friday won't be much.

 

Yeah looks like Dixie Alley will fire up for the first time this year.  Should be fun to track and it will be interesting to see if we can get rotating super cells into the carolinas.

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Yeah looks like Dixie Alley will fire up for the first time this year.  Should be fun to track and it will be interesting to see if we can get rotating super cells into the carolinas.

 

I'm pretty surprised about lack of discussion on Dixie Alley event Monday.

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I'm pretty surprised about lack of discussion on Dixie Alley event Monday.

 

Generally the Dixie Alley outbreaks are discussed in the central/west forum or I imagine the newly created Tenn Valley forums.....once the system gets into GA and the Carolinas there will be a event specific thread for it on the SE forum I am sure.

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Euro favoring areas such as Rockingham, NC on the 00z run for severe potential on Tuesday afternoon.  

 

Cape values look to range between 1500-2000 in that area with spots of 2500+.  Also a good bit of potential energy over central GA.

 

28ckf3b.jpg

 

 

Also shows a nice sliver of 70%+ relative humidity across that area of NC.  Parts of eastern NC with close to 100% RH.

 

2en3tdw.jpg

 

 

With decent convergence over the area I think we will see at least a slight risk area across central NC, eastern NC, central and eastern SC, and central GA.

 

 

33jtoxw.jpg

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Generally the Dixie Alley outbreaks are discussed in the central/west forum or I imagine the newly created Tenn Valley forums.....once the system gets into GA and the Carolinas there will be a event specific thread for it on the SE forum I am sure.

 

 

Going to be interesting to see what happens today in that region.

 

 

10157307_860526843964280_575319815406440

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Generally the Dixie Alley outbreaks are discussed in the central/west forum or I imagine the newly created Tenn Valley forums.....once the system gets into GA and the Carolinas there will be a event specific thread for it on the SE forum I am sure.

 

Oh I see. I've been keeping up with the discussion in central/west subforum but I kinda figured there's Dixie Alley posters discussing this storm somewhere.

 

Going to be interesting to see what happens today in that region.

 

 

 

 

Not as interesting as Monday :)

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From RAH

 

 

FRIDAY: THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY OF 500-1500 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS
FRIDAY AFT/EVE. THE SPC HAS UPGRADED MUCH OF THE AREA TO SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREATS
EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...SHOULD SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES TO
SET UP EARLY IN THE DAY. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND CYCLONICALLY
CURVED FORECAST HODOGRAPHS...WITH SRH VALUES IN THE 100-300 M2/S2
RANGE WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A LOW TORNADO THREAT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S DURING THE DAY.

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And the latest HWO out of RAH

 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENINGMAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL ANDDAMAGING WINDS. IF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD OCCUR...IT WOULD MOSTLIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN...WILL EXIST EARLY TO MID NEXTWEEK..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY...AND AGAIN AT TIMESNEXT WEEK. 
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

658 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  NORTHERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

  SOUTHERN SUNFLOWER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

  EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

 

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

 

* AT 658 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DARLOVE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
658 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHERN SUNFLOWER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
 
* UNTIL 800 PM CDT
 
* AT 658 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DARLOVE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

 

 

Pretty decent couplet but doesn't look like per radar that it is reaching the ground yet. 

 

bf3ogm.jpg

 

Edit: Continues to tighten will be interesting to see if there is any ground truth to this one.

 

2qu85k1.jpg

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There is a little bit of a hole on the correlation coefficient (low correlation) next to this velocity couplet about 4 mi SW of Lexington MS. I don't know if this is a very obvious indicator of a tornado, or just a weird blip.

 

Thats where the lowering looks to be on the enhanced echo tops.

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