London snowsquall Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 They just issued a blizzard warning for all of WNY. The pinnacle for a winter weather weenie like most on this board and twice in a season. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 They just issued a blizzard warning for all of WNY. The 21Z SREF snow plumes for Rochester are save-worthy. 25" mean plume, 14-34" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Going to come down to nowcasting. It is a good sign as it did add ~0.1" of QPF compared to 18z, even with some initilization error. Should be a fun commute tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The 21Z SREF snow plumes for Rochester are save-worthy. 25" mean plume, 14-34" range. Buffalo has a 23.5 inch mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The pinnacle for a winter weather weenie like most on this board and twice in a season. Awesome We are getting spoiled really from left to right, we are beating the odds of what use to be a once in a decade event. i feel like i'm in some type of weenieland dream LMAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The 21Z SREF snow plumes for Rochester are save-worthy. 25" mean plume, 14-34" range. Yep ROC will get rocked hard with this one, i'm thinking the jackpot of this event will come around that area, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 SREF mean and NAM are actually converging. SREF mean down to 16" while NAM looks like it gets the 12" marker right up to the city. And it still hasn't resolved it's initializing the sfc low too weak (as Bliz96 alluded to). If we can get this thing to track along I-70 in Ohio and then into S-C Pennsylvania, rather than ride the Mason-Dixon line, I think the higher amounts are doable. I'm not confident enough attm to just go with them but I will bump my final call to 6-10" for the city (15-25cm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The 21Z SREF snow plumes for Rochester are save-worthy. 25" mean plume, 14-34" range. What was the date of your radar image on your avatar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 Looks like the RGEM will bump up amounts a little from the super dry 18z run but it's still going to be much drier than the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Looks like the RGEM will bump up amounts a little from the super dry 18z run but it's still going to be much drier than the consensus. I notice your keeping track of snow...Who is doing the measurements for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The only thing I'm concerned about is the temperature at the onset of the storm. I'm at +3.7C (about 40F) at the moment, and I'm wondering if the precip might start out as wet snow or even drizzle, potentially cutting back on amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 I notice your keeping track of snow...Who is doing the measurements for you? My dad actually said he'd do it for me because even he was sad that my 13 years of imby observations would come to an end, but I didn't want to put him through the trouble. That, and I'm 95% sure his measurements would be half assed. The numbers in my sig are the official numbers. Pearson Airport nipher (YYZ) and Downtown Toronto man-measured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 The only thing I'm concerned about is the temperature at the onset of the storm. I'm at +3.7C (about 40F) at the moment, and I'm wondering if the precip might start out as wet snow or even drizzle, potentially cutting back on amounts. You might lose 0.2cm. Maybe. NAM BUFKIT cobb techniques show 9-13" for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Going to be a tough sleep tonight, i've gotta say. Pretty excited for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Going to be a tough sleep tonight, i've gotta say. Pretty excited for this one. What sleep? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Going to be a tough sleep tonight, i've gotta say. Pretty excited for this one. I feel the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 Seriously guys, go to bed now. These storms are always more enjoyable when you can muster 5 or 6 hours of sleep. Radar/models/sfc obs are all on our side. Set your alarm clocks for 6am and you should wake up just in time to see the first flakes fly. ^of course, easier said than done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 What sleep? lol Going to be a tough sleep tonight, i've gotta say. Pretty excited for this one. The Leafs are out in California. Makes staying up a bit easier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 RGEM back safely in the 10-15mm range for Toronto. Even if the bigger snows don't materialize the chances of us getting 6" tomorrow are nearing 100%. EC has to hoist a WSW for us by the 5.00am issuance, if not earlier. I won't hold my breath though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The Leafs are out in California. Makes staying up a bit easier I know all about those late games.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Sleep? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GEM definitely looking better. I'm going with 8-9" of snow except north of the 407 more like 6-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 RGEM back safely in the 10-15mm range for Toronto. Even if the bigger snows don't materialize the chances of us getting 6" tomorrow are nearing 100%. EC has to hoist a WSW for us by the 5.00am issuance, if not earlier. I won't hold my breath though. Wx statement continued at 328am for 2-4" no mention of higher amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Temp taking a dive towards the freezing mark all across central and western Waterloo Region to below freezing in Perth County. Light snow has begun. Unfortunately I work late and go to bed around 6am, so I'll be sleeping through most of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Incoming bands already look further NW then modelled last night. HRRR/RAP consensus is for ~0.6" of liquid into the city with a track near I-70 through ohio and then into SW PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 -SN has started now. Rates going to really jump by about 7-7:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Heavier stuff is on the doorstep. Up 'til now barely 1/2 inch and most of it has been really wet slushy stuff. Still just at the freezing mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Same! Its expected to be warmer tomorrow than today, which should eliminate all thats left from todays melt. If we can somehow keep 1cm on the ground, Weds snow should provide a helping hand. Lets see! When I first read this I thought "really?" because my forecast for yesterday was around +1ºC to 2ºC for a high and it was like that all the way to Monday late afternoon!!! Then I checked some weather stations near me and they are showing it got to 10ºC nearly which is double Monday's high. Not sure why TWN busted so spectacularly like that, easily the biggest in months with cold minimums being exceptions. The snow melt won't even come close to showing bare ground here, still have 70cm+ everywhere. The long range above showed -4ºC as the high for Tuesday with some snow...off by 11ºC. haha I'll take it for the record books. Lots of melting of there today, was kind of hoping for a big rain to wash it all away at once but that's only because I'm a flood weenie. BS loophole, lol. For the 2nd point, I agree and know what you mean. I like things to go out with a bang so to speak and while I don't want it to rain anytime soon or in the near future, when it does happen (maybe in the unholy timeline of late April, May?), I want heavy rain for days with temps. being over 25ºC. Add thunderstorms borderline severe with long daylight and my weather mojo will come right back . The moisture available for severe weather would be out of this world. Would be the commute from hell if this worked out. Sim radar scale is maxed out with convective precip wrapping into the cold air. If only.... That would be perfect. Graduated about a year and a half ago, now working in groundwater protection for a certain regional government in the GTA. Am hoping to work for a Conservation Authority as a future career goal. These weenie runs are getting me a little too excited. Gets the heart-rate going a bit haha. Obviously it's just a model run but even half those amounts would have serious impacts. A Conservation Authority is one of the best places to work. It has a balance of everything. Its not far off from a dream job actually. I was thinking about what model solutions would get my heart rate going and almost none would, just imminent weather that is of high importance and impact to me or somewhere else. Model solutions and forecasts that could increase "heartrate" : First indications of the Great March Heatwave in 2012 on the 7-day local forecast (20ºC or above every day as a high), 50 cm or above of snow forecast in a 24 hour period IMBY, reliable models showing runs of major hurricanes tracking westwards towards North American landmass during peak season (Hurricane Dean, 2007), High-res short-term model runs showing supercell activity IMBY during an expected severe weather outbreak, First time a Super Outbreakish model run (April 25, 2011) from either the Euro or GFS comes up for anywhere, and guidance displaying a historic heatwave that continues beyond 6 days in a row IMBY and elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Moderate snow pellets in my area atm. Its sticking on the ground but we need to cool temperatures down quick so we can cash in on some good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Still no snowfall warning for Toronto from EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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