snowstormcanuck Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 This looks to be a big one Toronto. FYI ... It looks like IMBY I should pass the 3/12 3Z SREF Mean IMBY of 8" and possibly approach the 3/11 21Z SREF mean of 10". 3z mean is 13.5" here. Finally got rid of those downers with the lowest member over 6". Hopefully.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 This looks to be a big one Toronto. FYI ... It looks like IMBY I should pass the 3/12 3Z SREF Mean IMBY of 8" and possibly approach the 3/11 21Z SREF mean of 10". Fenton has been getting rocked! How much so far? Approaching 6" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 Shoulders on the 403 and 401 in Mississauga starting to get coated up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Fenton has been getting rocked! How much so far? Approaching 6" here I can't believe it right now ... this band has been awesome here!!! Approaching 8" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I can't believe it right now ... this band has been awesome here!!! Approaching 8" here. Not surprised. That band is heading here. I love Northern Oakland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 I can't believe it right now ... this band has been awesome here!!! Approaching 8" here. Very nice. A couple times this winter now we've seen heaviest snow setup north of the model consensus QPF maximum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 Moderate snow and 1/2 SM visibility at YYZ. Temp below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Not surprised. That band is heading here. I love Northern Oakland Big flakes with that band. Best move ever to get north of M59!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Snow really coming down heavily. 4.0cm down so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Very nice. A couple times this winter now we've seen heaviest snow setup north of the model consensus QPF maximum. What is interesting is how the NAM and SREFs seem to see it. One just has to ignore the PORN runs!!! But honestly 5 days ago if you would have told me I was getting >8" I would have given you a big tag ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 EC bumps Toronto to 10-15cm. What's the over/under on a warning? 2 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 What is interesting is how the NAM and SREFs seem to see it. One just has to ignore the PORN runs!!! But honestly 5 days ago if you would have told me I was getting >8" I would have given you a big tag ... SREFs have been money in the bank this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 This is beginning to look a lot like Feb 5. Not seeing that north-south gradient that's been advertised. Should see similar amounts across the whole region. I'm going balls to the wall with 10-13" as my final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 EC bumps Toronto to 10-15cm. What's the over/under on a warning? 2 hours? EC is a joke, lol. They bumped during the Feb 5th storm as well. Its coming down like no tomorrow, haha. Visibility is next to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 SREFs have been money in the bank this winter. I have to wonder if that rain yesterday evening would have been snow if I would have approached the 3/11 9Z mean (15")??? I wonder if they were just expecting all snow and higher ratios (a bit more cold air). Not a complaint as I will always take a warning snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 EC is a joke, lol. They bumped during the Feb 5th storm as well. Its coming down like no tomorrow, haha. Visibility is next to nothing. **** happens, but this is going to be the third time in one winter. It's like they're constantly expecting a GHD 2011 bust to happen and don't want to take the flack. I hope they realize it works both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 This is beginning to look a lot like Feb 5. Not seeing that north-south gradient that's been advertised. Should see similar amounts across the whole region. I'm going balls to the wall with 10-13" as my final call. I don't think 10-13" is high at all considering the trends!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 EC is a joke, lol. They bumped during the Feb 5th storm as well. Its coming down like no tomorrow, haha. Visibility is next to nothing. What is wrong with that place how can the locales except such inept forecasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 Starting to see some discrete banding features on KC radar. This may start to ramp up even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 **** happens, but this is going to be the third time in one winter. It's like they're constantly expecting a GHD 2011 bust to happen and don't want to take the flack. I hope they realize it works both ways. Seem like they love the GEM too much though( or they just cherry pick the model showing the lowest). GEM was doing great for me in Dec into Jan. Then February things have shifted to the SREFs and too a certain extent the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 What is wrong with that place how can the locales except such inept forecasting? What are you going to do? Gubmit. Thankfully with the internet now the importance of government issued forecasts/warnings is no where near what it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 **** happens, but this is going to be the third time in one winter. It's like they're constantly expecting a GHD 2011 bust to happen and don't want to take the flack. I hope they realize it works both ways. They overhyped the GHD 2011 too much IMO. As a result, they lost alot of credibility amongst the public and they've always been conservative on their calls since. They've busted numerous times this season already and today looks to be no different. Lets see! They should stop model hugging, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Dear God @ the band between Goderich and London right now... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Starting to see some discrete banding features on KC radar. This may start to ramp up even more. What doe Kansas City radar have to do with it ... Do you have a good link to the KC radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 3 inch per hour rates about 50 miles south of here. =0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 They overhyped the GHD 2011 too much IMO. As a result, they lost alot of credibility amongst the public and they've always been conservative on their calls since. They've busted numerous times this season already and today looks to be no different. Lets see! They should stop model hugging, lol. Um, if EC "overhyped" GHD, we all did. The driest EURO run was still AOA 1" of QPF from what I recall (maybe 0.90"?). They did take a lot of heat for that one but I don't think it was justified. Recently, it's a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 What doe Kansas City radar have to do with it ... Do you have a good link to the KC radar. Inside shorthand. Like this one. Updates fast too. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=WKR&type=C0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0&MR=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Um, if EC "overhyped" GHD, we all did. The driest EURO run was still AOA 1" of QPF from what I recall (maybe 0.90"?). They did take a lot of heat for that one but I don't think it was justified. Recently, it's a different story. Yeah true. We got shafted thanks to the different snow crystals and dry slot. The Thunderstorm last summer dubbed as "Hurricane Hazel part 2" by some lol,...is another prime example of their lack of competency. Closing in on 3" almost. 6.8cm so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 They overhyped the GHD 2011 too much IMO. As a result, they lost alot of credibility amongst the public and they've always been conservative on their calls since. They've busted numerous times this season already and today looks to be no different. Lets see! They should stop model hugging, lol. I'm sure you wouldn't have been posting on here naysaying their call as "too high" if the models were showing something similar. I'm sure if they had nailed what actually happened on GHD, you would have been posting before the event about how much of a joke EC is when all the models are higher than their forecast. You can't have it both ways. We all model hug to some degree. Unfortunately EC tends to really only rely on their own model, which is risky business. At least they don't wish cast with every event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 YHM down to 200 metres. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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