snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Snows melting away, lol. Down to 18cm in my area. You know people are tired of Winter when they're wearing shorts and t-shirts outside -_- LOL I think the streak is going to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I think the streak is going to end. Same! Its expected to be warmer tomorrow than today, which should eliminate all thats left from todays melt. If we can somehow keep 1cm on the ground, Weds snow should provide a helping hand. Lets see! Its 91 days today. Oh man bro, you should have seen this one guy. He was wearing a ****ing tank top -_- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Same! Its expected to be warmer tomorrow than today, which should eliminate all thats left from todays melt. If we can somehow keep 1cm on the ground, Weds snow should provide a helping hand. Lets see! Its 91 days today. Oh man bro, you should have seen this one guy. He was wearing a ****ing tank top -_- Guy here in Edmonton I know wears a wife-beater in -25c weather. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Official snow depth is measured each day at principal weather stations (eg. YYZ) at 7 am local time. So if the current snow on the ground at Pearson melts to a trace sometime after 7 am tomorrow, the streak can remain intact if new snow (at least 1 cm) falls before 7 am Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Official snow depth is measured each day at principal weather stations (eg. YYZ) at 7 am local time. So if the current snow on the ground at Pearson melts to a trace sometime after 7 am tomorrow, the streak can remain intact if new snow (at least 1 cm) falls before 7 am Wednesday. Yeah, that's true. NAM brings the snow in around 9z on Wednesday. Kind of a BS loophole but whatever works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Yeah, that's true. NAM brings the snow in around 9z on Wednesday. Kind of a BS loophole but whatever works. haha I'll take it for the record books. Lots of melting of there today, was kind of hoping for a big rain to wash it all away at once but that's only because I'm a flood weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 EC going with a SWS along the north shore of Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 lol, nowhere to go but down: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Some lol-worthy solutions being spit out but the take-home message is that this system is going to be a decent hit for us. If the 00Z Euro jumps on board tonight, then I'll really let my weenie fly. 12Z Euro run may have been under-doing moisture transport and even without a big north jump I think we're still going to see better QPF than what it put out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 haha I'll take it for the record books. Lots of melting of there today, was kind of hoping for a big rain to wash it all away at once but that's only because I'm a flood weenie. Despite + snow departures hasn't been a particularly wet winter. Since Jan 1...I believe YYZ is only a bit north of 100mm for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Despite + snow departures hasn't been a particularly wet winter. Since Jan 1...I believe YYZ is only a bit north of 100mm for the season. True but the combination of deep frozen ground, thick river ice and the heavy, dense snowpack lasting into March was a pretty good flood set up. Even in years where we have had more snow, it usually doesn't make it all the way until spring. So even though precipitation was lower overall I think the potential amount of water that could have been released into streams with a big, warm, rainy system was actually higher than most years. We just needed a quick flip to spring to make things interesting but the grip of winter has prevented that and allowed for a slower melt of the snowpack. That being said the addition of new snow on Wednesday plus potential wintry systems afterwards keeps the spring flood potential interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 True but the combination of deep frozen ground, thick river ice and the heavy, dense snowpack lasting into March was a pretty good flood set up. Even in years where we have had more snow, it usually doesn't make it all the way until spring. So even though precipitation was lower overall I think the potential amount of water that could have been released into streams with a big, warm, rainy system was actually higher than most years. We just needed a quick flip to spring to make things interesting but the grip of winter has prevented that and allowed for a slower melt of the snowpack. That being said the addition of new snow on Wednesday plus potential wintry systems afterwards keeps the spring flood potential interesting. Glad you're interested. You work for the Conservation Authority? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Lol, from Farnell. Not his forecast but his graphical representation of the 18z NAM's snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Lol, from Farnell. Not his forecast but his graphical representation of the 18z NAM's snowfall. nuts.jpg Would be the commute from hell if this worked out. Sim radar scale is maxed out with convective precip wrapping into the cold air. If only.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 What time do you think the storm will be over. I'm driving from Toronto to Kitchener on Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 What time do you think the storm will be over. I'm driving from Toronto to Kitchener on Thursday morning. should be finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Glad you're interested. You work for the Conservation Authority? Graduated about a year and a half ago, now working in groundwater protection for a certain regional government in the GTA. Am hoping to work for a Conservation Authority as a future career goal. These weenie runs are getting me a little too excited. Gets the heart-rate going a bit haha. Obviously it's just a model run but even half those amounts would have serious impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 First call: 10-15 cm for Toronto (4-6"), with 10cm (4") north of the 401. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 First call: 10-15 cm for Toronto (4-6"), with 10cm (4") north of the 401. Fair call. I went 3-5"/8-12cm...which will be upgraded if the 0z NAM maintains itself and others jump on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 25-30 cm north of 401 and 35cm for south of 401 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 25-30 cm north of 401 and 35cm for south of 401 lol. God speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 My prelim call would be 4-8" for the GTA. Very low confidence given the large spread between the SREF/NAM, the RGEM/GFS in the middle and euro on the other end of the spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Lol, from Farnell. Not his forecast but his graphical representation of the 18z NAM's snowfall. nuts.jpg Yes, please! Just saw DTX has WSW's posted for all SEMI counties bordering SWON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The 0z Euro showed 0.56" QPF in the GTA. Still the driest compared to the other models, but it has trended wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 People going to be caught off guard yet another time this winter in the city. Hearing radio/news offices calling or 5-10 or 10-15cm when it's looking pretty likely that we see 15-30cm IMO with white out conditions given the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looks like all the standing water froze in my area last night. Nothing but ice everywhere, lol. Snow depth is around 14-15cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 People going to be caught off guard yet another time this winter in the city. Hearing radio/news offices calling or 5-10 or 10-15cm when it's looking pretty likely that we see 15-30cm IMO with white out conditions given the wind. TWN being generous with 10-15cm in their local forecasts, lol. My preliminary call is around 15-20cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looks like EC's conservative call is going to end up correct. Third time's a charm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Enough of the model mayhem, going to go with 18cm IMBY (7") final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 12z GFS with a slight decrease from its last few runs, but still relatively consistent with 20-25 cm for the GTA. Based on the other models, my final call is 15-20 cm. A blend is the best approach here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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