harrisale Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 12km NAM still hinting at that Lake band tonight. EC issued a statement mentioning the potential. Statement doesn't include Toronto or Mississauga-Brampton though (horseshoe from Oakville to Niagara). Lock it in. Snow was great to see last night, extended period of parachutes and very little wind. A nice fluffy 2-3cm IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2014 Author Share Posted March 5, 2014 So far on a NE flow the LES hasn't been that impressive but with the sun going down maybe we can get more of a single band to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ceilometer Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 These are particularly massive because they gather the entire stretch of snow on lake erie when frozen and deposit it against these banks when we have strong winds. Some of them are high as telephone wires. I have a video that I will post tonight most likely. Please post the video if possible. Being on the southern shore of Lake Erie I've never seen anything like it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Little blob of LES snow over Hamilton it would appear and YHM reporting -SN with 1SM visibility. However, none of the traffic cams around Hamilton Harbour are really showing anything. Like not even flurries. Not sure what to make of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Starting to rip in Oakville. Band currently lifting to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Extra light snow from Lake Ontario falling at my apartment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Hearing reports of 10-15cm amounts over the west end. YYZ has reported 9cm already. Moderate snow beginning here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Hearing reports of 10-15cm amounts over the west end. YYZ has reported 9cm already. Moderate snow beginning here now. Holy crap! It's obviously low density snow because I was looking at the highway cams and it didn't seem that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Holy crap! It's obviously low density snow because I was looking at the highway cams and it didn't seem that bad. Couples picks i've seen on twitter. First one from etobicoke, second one taken from mississauga earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It's snowing as far north as Rutherford, if you guys know where that is LOL. About 1.0cm just south of my area. 9cm at YYZ? Wow! Impressive to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Couples picks i've seen on twitter. First one from etobicoke, second one taken from mississauga earlier. BiC1HFWCcAAhrXV.jpg BiCUmb3CIAAPXzk.jpg Jeez, what a surprise. I mean I thought a few cms would be possible but not 10+. Even though 850 temps are now above -10c the band still looks relatively healthy. You can tell it's located lower in the atmosphere where it's colder. 925 temps are still -12 to -13c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Another shameful job by EC. I would never have faulted them for not going with 10cm+ amounts but they never even mentioned the potential of this LES impacting Toronto when it was painfully obvious that it was on the table. Never included in the SWS, never had local amounts included in yesterday's forecast, never had POPs greater than 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Jeez, what a surprise. I mean I thought a few cms would be possible but not 10+. Even though 850 temps are now above -10c the band still looks relatively healthy. You can tell it's located lower in the atmosphere where it's colder. 925 temps are still -12 to -13c. More of a SB band would make sense based on soundings i looked at earlier. Right now, weve got light snow with accasional mod bursts here. After taking a look at the radar over the last 8 hours or so, returns didn't look that great which means that most of the band probably hung out below the beam with the amounts that are being reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Another shameful job by EC. I would never have faulted them for not going with 10cm+ amounts but they never even mentioned the potential of this LES impacting Toronto when it was painfully obvious that it was on the table. Never included in the SWS, never had local amounts included in yesterday's forecast, never had POPs greater than 40%. The question is, when has EC ever been right and on a consistency basis? They've failed numerous times this season already and tonights no different. I'm not sure if it's the budget cuts in recent years that has hurt them, but that gives them no excuse to not warn the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 More of a SB band would make sense based on soundings i looked at earlier. Right now, weve got light snow with accasional mod bursts here. After taking a look at the radar over the last 8 hours or so, returns didn't look that great which means that most of the band probably hung out below the beam with the amounts that are being reported. Gotta figure at some point lowering inversion heights/delta ts are going to quash this thing. But with the winds veering to the SE maybe you can get into some of the more consistent moderate snow before everything falls apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 The question is, when has EC ever been right and on a consistency basis? They've failed numerous times this season already and tonights no different. I'm not sure if it's the budget cuts in recent years that has hurt them, but that gives them no excuse to not warn the public. It's a tough job to predict the weather. I understand that. But it seems like they miss the small stuff too that even hobbyists like us have no problem identifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Got to love the surprise snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 The wintertime convection that is LES https://twitter.com/onroadexplorer/status/441564036870582272/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Got to love the surprise snows. We get so few of them which makes this extra special. March is off to a fast start here. Now we got to work on reviving that D7 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It's a tough job to predict the weather. I understand that. But it seems like they miss the small stuff too that even hobbyists like us have no problem identifying. As hobbyist if there are 5 models and 1 shows exactly what we want then we cling to it. The other 4 models are not impressive and are more likely to verify (except crazy winter like this one). They do a lot on statistics and normally it is a good way to go. Most winters we are bummed and pissed hobbyist because that 1 model usually doesn't verify. This winter (outside of a few systems IMBY) you could pick the more extreme model and it would turn pretty darn close. In addition we rarely give them credit when they are right and slam them to no end when they are wrong. As a hobbyist when you are wrong the only person pissed or happy is yourself. A MET well they have a whole audience they have to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 We get so few of them which makes this extra special. March is off to a fast start here. Now we got to work on reviving that D7 storm. I think that D7 storm has potential. I like when the models are not showing the perfect storm in D7 range. The elements are there we just need it to phase correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Holy crap! It's obviously low density snow because I was looking at the highway cams and it didn't seem that bad. Light snow falling in my area. Very picturesque. Looks like I'll miss out on the higher totals, though. Congrats to the west end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Can't believe what I'm hearing with these amounts. Woke up to not even a dusting on the ground. Sounds like we got completely whiffed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Dad confirms about 4" in central Etobicoke. Lightest, fluffiest snow he's ever seen apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 EC still calling for a high of 3C tomorrow. I'm gonna hold with my call of a 0C high. 12Z Hi-res NAM doesn't take us above 31F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 As hobbyist if there are 5 models and 1 shows exactly what we want then we cling to it. The other 4 models are not impressive and are more likely to verify (except crazy winter like this one). They do a lot on statistics and normally it is a good way to go. Most winters we are bummed and pissed hobbyist because that 1 model usually doesn't verify. This winter (outside of a few systems IMBY) you could pick the more extreme model and it would turn pretty darn close. In addition we rarely give them credit when they are right and slam them to no end when they are wrong. As a hobbyist when you are wrong the only person pissed or happy is yourself. A MET well they have a whole audience they have to consider. It's different here. NWS does a pretty good job...at least most of the offices I'm familiar with. EC is another story. If 5 models show a hit, and 1 doesn't, and that 1 is the RGEM/GGEM, then that's what their forecast is based on (or at least it really seems that way). And it's not based on meteorological reasoning. Frankly, it may be the only model they look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Can't believe what I'm hearing with these amounts. Woke up to not even a dusting on the ground. Sounds like we got completely whiffed here. When I went to bed it looked like the band was impacting Oakville/Burlington, but the part of the band over the water had made a noticeable jump to the north. It may have blown through pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Based on what's fallen today this winter will almost certainly be the snoweist since 2008-09. Not as impressive as the all-time records being set to our SW but hey, you make the most of what you got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Can't believe what I'm hearing with these amounts. Woke up to not even a dusting on the ground. Sounds like we got completely whiffed here. The west end of Mississauga got nothing noticeable. Even here at Humber (lakeshore) there is no indication that it has snowed at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Another shameful job by EC. I would never have faulted them for not going with 10cm+ amounts but they never even mentioned the potential of this LES impacting Toronto when it was painfully obvious that it was on the table. Never included in the SWS, never had local amounts included in yesterday's forecast, never had POPs greater than 40%. Not sure if you're talking about one being issued, but they did put a vague SWS for Toronto and southern Peel Region at 218am then canceled it at 432am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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