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March 2-4 Snowstorm Potential Part 3


Sickman

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3/2 00Z Summary NYC, NE-NJ, CNJ, LI

 

SREF: 0.40 - 0.50 / 3 - 5 snow 

NAM:  0.20 - 0.35 / 1 - 3 snow

RGEM:  0.25 - 0.40 / 2 - 4 snow

GFS:  0.45 - 0.55 / 3 - 6 snow

UKMET:  0.25 - 0.40 / 2 - 4 inches snow

GGEM : 0.40 - 0.60 / 4 - 7 inches

Thanks for posting. One question, though: since CNJ is a bit south of NENJ/NYC/LI and the snow gradient increases from north to south, shouldn't CNJ have at least slightly higher QPF/snowfall (unless you're factoring in some correction for ratios)?

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Thanks for posting. One question, though: since CNJ is a bit south of NENJ/NYC/LI and the snow gradient increases from north to south, shouldn't CNJ have at least slightly higher QPF/snowfall (unless you're factoring in some correction for ratios)?

 

the higher end of the range is the cnj area mercer Middlesex, monmouth etc... im being conservative with a standard 10:1 ratio.

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2 things are certain : trends today have ceased southern swing and nudged slightly up from 2-4 closer to 3-6 IMHO & also From Philly south to DC they look to be in 8+ zone with CNJ in 6+. 

So I day say NYC proper will wake up to WWA with possibility of being bumped up into low end warning ( I have some hope the 1st wave will overperform BUT I dont think anything dramatic takes place with 1nd SW EXCEPT if the sampling full at this point shows the LOBE , the dreaded lobe in WNY weaker than progged- I give that 10% chance of verification)

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