SLAMSTORM22 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The initial wave of precip the nam is 9 hrs out. Care to explain exactly WHEN it is in range? smh Tongue in cheek...the model sucks..personally, the nam is only good for literal nowcasting imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The initial wave of precip the nam is 9 hrs out. Care to explain exactly WHEN it is in range? smh All we can do now is just look at the radar and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJCoast Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is all just so silly, like the reason why I didn't see anyone mention the Euro ensembles is because they are almost bone dry. Just look at radar, anything north of Philly is getting eaten alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is all just so silly, like the reason why I didn't see anyone mention the Euro ensembles is because they are almost bone dry. Just look at radar, anything north of Philly is getting eaten alive. then why are you on here.. you're bringing nothing to the table... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 New RAP is bone dry north of 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Earthlight's near silence on the event probably tells the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 then why are you on here.. you're bringing nothing to the table... Nice joke man Look at what's going on with the radar and the short term high res models. I see nothing that tells me this is going to end up better for us than currently progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Earthlight's near silence on the event probably tells the tale. He's out of the country. He said he's never missed a big one and it looks like that streak won't be broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 And what good will that do for me? It's been over up here for two days now and it looks like we're all going to suffer now equally. And what good will that do for me? It's been over up here for two days now and it looks like we're all going to suffer now equally. Yanks, suffer is the wrong word. Most people in the area are thrilled we won't see much snow. Mingle some. Pretend to be happy about it. Think of bright sunny warm days and walks in the park with family or the dog. it's been a long winter, buddy. And I have appreciated your work here, as well as your friend's.....but cheer up for goodness sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Nice joke man Look at what's going on with the radar and the short term high res models. I see nothing that tells me this is going to end up better for us than currently progged. Agree, but given the longer term pattern, I'd say we have 1, 2 or even 3 shots at something before winter's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Agree, but given the longer term pattern, I'd say we have 1, 2 or even 3 shots at something before winter's done. I didn't declare winter over yet, just this "threat" of anyone in this area seeing more than a few inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is all just so silly, like the reason why I didn't see anyone mention the Euro ensembles is because they are almost bone dry. Just look at radar, anything north of Philly is getting eaten alive. I have flurries currently with a temp of 29F Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I didn't declare winter over yet, just this "threat" of anyone in this area seeing more than a few inches of snow. I know, but if it were the last threat of the year, I would be more bummed, just saying that there's something to possibly look forward to.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off SOME CSTL LOCATIONS COULD SEE WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL CLOSE TO 6INCHES...BUT BELIEVE THAT WILL BE THE UPPER LIMIT...UNLESS FUTUREMODEL RUNS SUGGEST OTHERWISE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ADVISORYWILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO INCLUDE SOME OF THE NORTHERNNYC SUBURBS. HOWEVER...IT COULD GO THE OTHER WAY IF DRIER TRENDSCONTINUE. LATER SHIFTS MAKE HAVE TO SCALE BACK THE ADVISORY. STAYTUNED.ANOTHER CAVEAT FOR SNOWFALL FORECAST IS ANY CHANGE IN QPF ANDINCREASING RATIOS AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.MANY VARIABLES TO CONSIDER...WHICH MAKES EXACT SNOW ACCUMFORECASTING A CHALLENGE.FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS...AS MOS WAS IN BETTER AGREEMENTTONIGHT AND MONDAY. VERY COLD WITH TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOWNORMAL TONIGHT...AND ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY. wishcasting???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yanks, suffer is the wrong word. Most people in the area are thrilled we won't see much snow. Mingle some. Pretend to be happy about it. Think of bright sunny warm days and walks in the park with family or the dog. it's been a long winter, buddy. And I have appreciated your work here, as well as your friend's.....but cheer up for goodness sake. You know what I think of? The countless hours and days that I spent tracking this and giving play by plays and the about 2000 posts that I've made in the past ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You know what I think of? The countless hours and days that I spent tracking this and giving play by plays and the about 2000 posts that I've made in the past ten days. And I have enjoyed reading them all. You have some serious skills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJCowboy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You know what I think of? The countless hours and days that I spent tracking this and giving play by plays and the about 2000 posts that I've made in the past ten days. I think that speaks volumes. The amount of emotional investment in model runs by many in this forum is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 SREF plumes have 3-5 inches for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I think that speaks volumes. The amount of emotional investment in model runs by many in this forum is amazing. exactly.. the over analysis of each model is exactly why people get so bitter.. eh hem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJCoast Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Off topic but after experiencing probably the best 5 year stretch in the last 50 in snowfall where I am along the coast. I'm elated to have even a measurable snowfall in March after dealing with multiple years without a 3-5" event. Lurked since easternwx days, many over you do a great job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 SREF plumes have 3-5 inches for NYC That is not true. JFK has a mean of 3.12, both LGA and EWR are in the 2.5-3 range. And all three locations are skewed high by a couple of high members. The majority of the members are below the mean for all three locations. Also all three locations have QPF between .2-.3, getting 3 inches would be a success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 exactly.. the over analysis of each model is exactly why people get so bitter.. eh hem... I wonder how good they would do with my Tea Leaves????? "today your ice cream may not melt" http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f024_usbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I wonder how good they would do with my Tea Leaves????? "today your ice cream may not melt" http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f024_usbg.gif r.gif always my favorite poster DM - thanks for all the knowledge you bring -- id take 2-4 and run -- well forget the running part but would still be thrilled with that.. expecting 1-3.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 That is not true. JFK has a mean of 3.12, both LGA and EWR are in the 2.5-3 range. And all three locations are skewed high by a couple of high members. The majority of the members are below the mean for all three locations. Also all three locations have QPF between .2-.3, getting 3 inches would be a success. So 2-4 is a good call which is good for March. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off SOME CSTL LOCATIONS COULD SEE WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL CLOSE TO 6 INCHES...BUT BELIEVE THAT WILL BE THE UPPER LIMIT...UNLESS FUTURE MODEL RUNS SUGGEST OTHERWISE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO INCLUDE SOME OF THE NORTHERN NYC SUBURBS. HOWEVER...IT COULD GO THE OTHER WAY IF DRIER TRENDS CONTINUE. LATER SHIFTS MAKE HAVE TO SCALE BACK THE ADVISORY. STAY TUNED. ANOTHER CAVEAT FOR SNOWFALL FORECAST IS ANY CHANGE IN QPF AND INCREASING RATIOS AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MANY VARIABLES TO CONSIDER...WHICH MAKES EXACT SNOW ACCUM FORECASTING A CHALLENGE. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS...AS MOS WAS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT AND MONDAY. VERY COLD WITH TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...AND ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY. wishcasting???? Exactly. Look, nobody is saying the NWS is infallible (and they've blown a couple of the marginal systems lately), but I'll take their track record, especially on larger systems, over anyone's and right now, they still have reason to believe in 2-4" for NYC/North Jersey, north of 78, and 4-8" in Central Jersey, moving south from 78 (4") down to 195 (8"). They might actually know a little more about meteorology and are not relying on modelology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 So 2-4 is a good call which is good for March. Enjoy. snow you make me laugh. thanks! great to see eternal optimists still exist.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 And I have enjoyed reading them all. You have some serious skills. Amen. It does hurt, all the time us weenies put into track what turned out to be a DC storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It's sleeting in Lincroft, caught me a little off guard, temperature is 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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