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March 2-4 Snowstorm Potential Part 3


Sickman

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i dont know how accurate the map is, but it has 6" of snow on a line from philly to about NYC. looks like 7-8" monmouth county.

I think there is about 0.1 to 0.15" that is not frozen.....that could be skewing the snow amounts on those maps? Wxbell maps are usually overdone but they do a good job frozen vs non frozen and they show just 3-4" frozen

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Problem is most of this precip is strung out so it might be .25-.50 qpf but thy won't accumulate 2-5" unless we get some good bands in here..

VERY GOOD point, and one that is not mentioned enough. Light snow and flurries for hours and hours will not add up. A heavy band for a couple hours would

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I think there is about 0.1 to 0.15" that is not frozen.....that could be skewing the snow amounts on those maps? Wxbell maps are usually overdone but they do a good job frozen vs non frozen and they show just 3-4" frozen

Sent from my iPhone

The difference is that WxBell uses a standard 10:1 ratio, while Instant Weather Maps takes ratios into account. That's why you're seeing 5-6" of snow being shown off of 0.40-0.50" of precip near the metro area.

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The speed of the vort lobe rotating around the PV has been faster the last 2 models runs, as a result it clears into NRN New England by 09-12z Monday AM which may be allowing the precip to come north as the RGEM started showing at 18Z and the GFS shows now...there still is the weaker lobe behind it dropping over Michigan and WRN NY though, if it were not for that piece we'd be in business. ...the same reason above could be why the 21-06Z period no longer looks as snowy as it originally did because that lobe is to our north earlier,

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