mackerel_sky Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 That looks like the area that may get hit the worst. You CAD guys should know it's probably going to be colder than expected. Until about an hour ago, nothing but rain outside the NW piedmont and mtns. Now some model showing 3-6 for ATL! Huge , huge changes! I hope it snows all night, these local mets refused to say anything but rain at noon! They have to mention possibilities by 10 pm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Until about an hour ago, nothing but rain outside the NW piedmont and mtns. Now some model showing 3-6 for ATL! Huge , huge changes! I hope it snows all night, these local mets refused to say anything but rain at noon! They have to mention possibilities by 10 pm! I know around here, they will dance around it but they Will try to cover their butts!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Man we need this to keep trending colder like these weird models are doing this afternoon ! We need an unheard of storm for GaWx march database! Lol! I'm actually going to be traveling to ATL from SAV this evening on, believe it or not, a preplanned trip (planned two weeks back). Incredible timing! (Had I not had it planned, I would have tried to get there regardless.) So, I'll be out of pocket til tonight, but will hopefully see something in ATL tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I didn't want to put this in the main thread and clutter it up, but I think this will be one of those situations where we will be underwhelmed with the winter part of the storm. Do I think some areas will see some snow or some front end sleet/ice? Yeah, sure. Heck, there may even be a few spots, outside the mountains that get warning criteria winter weather. But I think the majority of the precipitation will be rain for most areas...even GSO. Why? Just from watching these marginal events underperform through the years. We tend to get all excited about these situations and look for ways the models might be missing something or underdoing the cold or overestimating the warm nose or moving the high out too quickly or tracking the low too far inland or underestimating the precip or underestimating the ULL or underestimating the dynamic cooling or not handling kicker correctly or whatever. I mean, that's part of the fun of all of this...finding ways where things could trend better. The models aren't perfect and they do have biases, of course. But most of the time, from my observations -- not from any scientific evidence -- but just from my anecdotal observations, marginal situations tend to end up producing marginal events. Every now and then, we get what we all hope for, a complete whiff by the models and the anomalous, surprising winter storm. But in my experience those situations are few and far between. The fact that we have a high leaving, a modest ULL, a decent but not overly strong surface low (which takes a GREAT track, mind you), and marginal cold air to begin with, all in early March, doesn't scream "bust to the winter storm side" to me. Unless the models are really wrong here on the cold air or way off on the ULL strength, I think it'll be cold rain for most. I might turn out to be completely wrong. I hope I am. But, there are way to many red flags here and it's getting very late in the game. I do appreciate the research that you do, Larry, and the data that you routinely bring to the board. The fact that you found no similar situation to this one means that I have to at least acknowledge the fact that I might be completely out in left field. So, fact acknowledged. I hope I am. I just saw this. Nice post and you're welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Larry, you rock with your historical data/facts...SUPER appreciate that! Cold Rain, I agree...fully with your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Larry, you rock with your historical data/facts...SUPER appreciate that! Cold Rain, I agree...fully with your post. Chris, Thanks! On the road shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I've got a good feeling about this storm. It's hard to argue against a 1040 hp not producing something. This has been one of the more interesting systems to track with the models never really getting a good handle on it imo. I think we end up seeing a true mixed bag from snow to sleet to freezing rain, and depending on where the ull tracks we might manage a thump of heavy snow somewhere. It's interesting to see rain across the grids from the NWS, but the hazardous weather outlook saying a mixed bag. I don't think anyone really knows whats going to happen. Climatology certainly aruges against significant fzrn this late in the year, but it looks like a real possibility. GFS has us hanging around 31-33 and in the past a good CAD has been known to have temps 2-3 below what is modeled. Here's to the grand finale of winter 2013-2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I'm cautiously optimistic. I know I pulled the plug on the system last night. But I just don't under stand how the models have suck about the speed and placement of the HP in the NE. This HP has slowed down alot per models. Kind of interesting aspect the HP has been mainly in a fast W>E flow zooming off the coast. But recent trends have really changed the direction of it too. More so a NW > SE flow. The good thing about it the HP is going to squash into the storm so its not going NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Does anyone realize how good the models have been doing with this system? The GFS had this about 8 days ago and kept consistently showing this storm system. Yeah it did lose it a time or two, but they have been doing well. Specific details are a different story though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Worrying over here n northeast ga. Hate storms where I'm so close. Not got the best gut feeling. Thinking we are just cold rain here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Crap! Robert says to get your generator ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Is RAH saying there is a greater chance for wintry weather in central NC than the models show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Is RAH saying there is a greater chance for wintry weather in central NC than the models show? You must read their afternoon discussion. It's one of the best I have read. Basically all of the models have trended colder all day. If the trend continues overnight (like they seem to be doing) they will issue watches and advisories in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 You must read their afternoon discussion. It's one of the best I have read. Basically all of the models have trended colder all day. If the trend continues overnight (like they seem to be doing) they will issue watches and advisories in the morning. Yeah I saw that. Not sure exactly what it means for RDU though. They had a graphic that showed little or no impact for RDU, but others like WxSouth seem to think it will be a bigger deal than even the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yeah I saw that. Not sure exactly what it means for RDU though. They had a graphic that showed little or no impact for RDU, but others like WxSouth seem to think it will be a bigger deal than even the models are showing. Their next update will be a little stronger for RDU I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 MBY is really nose diving tonight... already down to 34. I think some people might be in for a shock tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Their next update will be a little stronger for RDU I think. Really? Is it trending to a bigger deal for Raleigh now? Are we talking ice or snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Really? Is it trending to a bigger deal for Raleigh now? Are we talking ice or snow? Breath into a paper bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Really? Is it trending to a bigger deal for Raleigh now? Are we talking ice or snow? Ice. Marginal temps just under freezing for several hours. Still trending though. Could be a nuisance event with minimal impact or a little bigger deal. I don't think RDU gets a major winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Breath into a paper bag. I am just wondering what to expect. I didn't think this would be anything but rain here. Just trying to get an idea of how bad it could be and what type of precip we are talking about for RDU area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Ice. Marginal temps just under freezing for several hours. Still trending though. Could be a nuisance event with minimal impact or a little bigger deal. I don't think RDU gets a major winter storm. Maybe it could trend colder and be snow. I don't want a big ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Maybe it could trend colder and be snow. I don't want a big ice storm. Probably mostly rain for RDU. It's worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 GFS says yay and NAM says nay, guess the Euro will break the tie. But I really wouldn't want all the NAMs precip unless it falls as snow, 3" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 WxSouth keeps saying big time storm for central NC, but isn't very specific if that is just for the Triad or the Triangle area, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Where has WOW been lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Sounds like we could get rain, ice, or snow. Just depends on how cold it trends. I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 WxSouth keeps saying big time storm for central NC, but isn't very specific if that is just for the Triad or the Triangle area, too. Have you stocked up on bread and milk yet? You know it's just gonna be insane tomorrow when everyone rushes the store. We're probably looking at at least 8 inches around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Temp is really dropping fast. Went from 38.7 to 37.8 in the last 20 minutes. Slight breeze from the NNE. I'm feeling more and more confident about a good kind of bust happening. CAD is really starting to build in. Just need to get the dewpoints into the 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Maybe that death band of snow the Canadian was showing the other day wasn't far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 WxSouth keeps saying big time storm for central NC, but isn't very specific if that is just for the Triad or the Triangle area, too.He keeps saying Upstate SC and NGA!? He seems adamant , even after the latest GFS ! I hope he's right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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